Transcript Planned vs. Emergent Change

Understanding Complex
Dynamical Systems
John Usher
Org Theory
Rossitsa Yalamova
Finance
Foundations of “New” Social
Science
• Old and new assumptions:
agents and equilibria
• Deliberate vs. emergent
strategy
• Control vs. selforganization
• Fish / birds / termites
(Schools, flocks, bldgs)
• GM: bidding paint robots
• Internet / Economy
Four Types of Complexity
• 1) Static complexity
• 2) Dynamic
complexity
• 3) Evolving
complexity
• 4) Self-organizing
complexity
Type I: Static Complexity
• System structure does
not change with time
• Count the number of
transistors on a
computer chip or
number of cells in a
life form
• Quantity => Pattern
• Fractal complication
Type II: Dynamic Complexity
• Adds fourth dimension
of time
• Recognize temporal
patterns (seasons) but
lose spatial patterns
(leaves)
• Not just predictable
attributes but variable
and extreme events
Type III: Evolving Complexity
• Open-ended, noncyclic change
• Variation Selection
Retention models
• Learning, art, galaxies
as well as species
• Identifying patterns
among systems not
outcomes
Type IV: Self-Organizing
Complexity
• System co-evolves with its
environment
• Classification of system out
of context is not a valid
description
• Ecology or language
• Work on environment
constraints & let system
evolve a solution instead of
trying to impose one
Autopoesis
• Egocentric
organizations
• Survival must always
be with, not against,
the environment
• Example: depletion of
fish stocks
Edge-of-Chaos
• Phase transitions
• Basins of attraction
• Edge-of-chaos
situations can flip
patterns
• Small changes = BIG
effects
Mutual Causality
• Positive and Negative
Feedback Loops
• Deviation amplifying
and stabilizing
• Understand the
system, not just linear
cause and effect
• Intervention points
Management and Emergent
Change
• Powerless power
• A loss of control or a
loss of perceived
control?
• Understanding limits
of control & finding
points of intervention
• Shaping patterns
instead of planning
Guidance for the Pattern Shaper
Sources: Tom Peters, Jim March and Robert Burgelman
• The world is a stream
of problems that can
be activated, bound in
new ways, or bypassed
• Timing is important
• Realizing what levers
you control and don’t
control is important
knowledge
• Modeling a change
gains more ground
than asking for it
• Skinner was right
about reinforcement
• Nudge the system and
ask questions to assess
their effect
• And remember…
Lawlessness can be a good thing
• “I say unto you: one
must still have chaos
in oneself to be able to
give birth to a dancing
star.”
(Nietzsche, Thus
Spoke Zarathustra)
Now it gets really scary…
WAIT