Transcript is here. - Euler - Valley City State University

Looking Back
Looking Forward
Curt Hill
Valley City State University
Copyright © 2007 Curt Hill
A Different Presentation
• This is usually the time when I
explain something new and different
that I have tried
• Not this time
• No answers, musings and questions
• What can the past tell us about the
future?
• How will we get ready for that
future?
Copyright © 2007 Curt Hill
Contradiction
• It is impossible to accurately predict
the future
• There are certain recognizable
trends that will dramatically
influence the future
• This crystal ball will not paint a
detailed picture, but will give us
some indication as to what to look
for
Copyright © 2007 Curt Hill
Advancement
• The rate of change will continue to
increase
• Change is predicated on economic
vigor
• Economic health will provide
i
•
n
c
e
n
t
i
v
e
f
o
r
c
h
a
n
g
e
As long as a product improvement
translates into sales, change will
occur
Copyright © 2007 Curt Hill
Example
• How many of you drive a five year
old car?
• How many regularly use a five year
old computer?
• What kind of computers will we have
in five years?
• Will our programming paradigm
have changed in five years?
Copyright © 2007 Curt Hill
Silicon
• The law of diminishing returns must
eventually overpower Moore’s law
• We cannot shrink transistors forever
at the rate we have been
• The multi-cores are a sign
• They confirm that we cannot
continue to shrink the transistor
• They also confirm that our
technology will advance without that
shrinking
Copyright © 2007 Curt Hill
Another principle
• Our technology constrains our vision
• We can often see what could be
possible within the current
constraints
• When these constraints change it is
hard to enlarge our vision
• Was it not Bill Gates who said “Who
would want more than 64K?”
Copyright © 2007 Curt Hill
Some Examples
• Luggables
– Who could tell this is the Wright flyer?
• PCs + Internet = ?
Copyright © 2007 Curt Hill
Another Example
• Exploitation of multiple cores
• The hardware designers have
defamed the software designers
• The multiple cores increase our
power, but software has not caught
up
• Most users cannot utilize the power
they have already
• When will our paradigm catch up?
– Compilers
Copyright © 2007 Curt Hill
Specialization and
Differentiation
• As the field matures our hardware
has specialized
• First was the CPU
• Now we have a whole variety of
processors that perform specialized
tasks
• Is there any reason to believe that
neither our programming languages
or operating systems will not do the
same?
Copyright © 2007 Curt Hill
Programming Languages
• The most recent introductions have
been interpretive or scripting
languages
• In days gone by this would have
been a sore point
• If this opens the field to more people
can it be anything other than a good
thing?
Copyright © 2007 Curt Hill
Mathematics Department
• Many, if not most, are service
departments
– They offer courses that are required all
over campus
– Relatively few majors
• Should the Computer Science
department be headed in the same
direction?
– Everyone needs computing, but very
few need the major
– Will specialized languages do this?
Copyright © 2007 Curt Hill
Operating Systems
• The OS continues to grow
• The services offered today would be
unheard of not that many years ago
• Is this good or bad?
• Good if two conditions are met
– The hardware can support it
– Is it well designed
Copyright © 2007 Curt Hill
Interface
• How much longer will the WIMP
interface last?
• This is the successor to the batch /
control language and then the
timesharing / command line
interface
• Both of those were thought
adequate for some time
• Why do we think the current will last
forever?
Copyright © 2007 Curt Hill
One last crazy idea
• The one laptop per child initiative did
away with the disk drive
– Too expensive, too much power
• Replaced it with a 4M flash drive
• What could we do with a 60 G flash
drive with quick access?
• Do away with main memory as we
know it
Copyright © 2007 Curt Hill
Finally
• We know change is inevitable
• We know the constraints that we
know will be loosened
• We know that there will be increased
specialization of hardware and
software
• How will we prepare ourselves?
• How will we prepare the students of
the future?
Copyright © 2007 Curt Hill
Questions?
Comments?
Copyright © 2007 Curt Hill