Transcript The Emergence of Moore`s Law

The Emergence of Moore’s
Law
By Ray Kurzweil
from book
< The age of spiritual machines>
Moore’s Law
• In 1965, Moore asserted that one could pack
twice as many transistors on an integrated
circuit in every 1 ~ 2 years, which would
double both compactness of circuits and
speed of computing.
• Taking cost into account, every two years
one can get twice as much circuitry running
at twice the speed for the same price.
• Moore’s law has held true in the past forty
years.
Exponential Growth of
Computing Power
• Moore’s Law asserted exponential growth
of computing power.
• Let S0 be the computing speed at some year,
and Sn speed after n years. Then
Sn = S0 * 2 0.5n
Exponential Growth
• The increases are slow and unnoticeable at
first, and become dramatic (explosive) after
certain points.
Linear Growth vs.
Exponential Growth
• Let X be the speed at beginning.
• Linear growth:
– If every two years, the speed is increased by X,
then after 40 years, the speed would be
(40/2)X = 20X.
• Exponential growth:
– If every 2 years, the speed is doubled, then after
40 years, the speed would be (240/2)X = 220X=
1,048,576 X.
An example: IRA
• Option A: You put $1,000 into an IRA with
annual increase 12%.
• Option B: You put $1,000 into an retirement
institution that adds $1,000 to your account
every year.
• You cannot take money out till after 45 years.
• Which option would you choose?
Linear vs. Exponential Increase
180000
160000
140000
120000
100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
Years
43
40
37
34
31
28
25
22
19
16
13
10
7
4
1
0
100 Million Times
• Computing power (speed/cost) has
increased 100 million times in the past 50
years.
• If auto industry had made such a progress, a
car today would cost a 0.01 cent and run
faster than the light.
• If food industry had made such a progress, a
dollar now could purchase a pound of flour
for every American.
Limit of Speed on Circuit
• Number of transistors on a chip cannot be
unlimitedly large, since two transistors
cannot be closer than the size of an atom.
• Moore’s Law will break down after years.
• But computing power may continue to
increase by using some other technology.
Exponential Growth of
Computing in Past 100 Years
• Before electronic computers, people used
fingers, abacus, slide rule, mechanical
computer to speed up computing (p.22-23).
• From 1900 to 1998, computing speed
increased exponentially (p.24).
• Moore’s law only showed the last 40 years
growth (the 5th paradigm).
Exponential Growth will
Continue
• Exponential growth of computing speed
will not stop even after the compactness of
a chip is to its extreme.
• New technology and approach will relay the
growth as the 6th paradigm.