Transcript Course overview

Exponential growth
Skills: none
Concepts: linear growth, exponential growth, linear
scale plot, logarithmic scale plot, “hockey stick,”
Moore’s Law, hosting in the cloud
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-Share Alike
3.0 License.
Where does this topic fit?
• Internet concepts
– Applications
– Technology
– Implications
• Internet skills
– Application development
– Content creation
– User skills
Linear versus exponential growth
Grow by the same amount in
each time period
Grow by the same percent in
each time period
Exponential growth
Year
Growth
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
10%
10
11
12
13
15
16
18
19
21
24
20%
10
12
14
17
21
25
30
36
43
52
50%
10
15
23
34
51
76
114
171
256
384
100%
10
20
40
80
160
320
640
1280
2560
5120
Exponential growth, linear scale
Twelve year, 100% sales growth
Exponential growth, logarithmic scale
Twelve year, 100% sales growth
Exponential demo spreadsheet:
http://som.csudh.edu/fac/lpress/netapps/hout/techprogress/exponentialgrowth.xls
Transistor count – Moore’s Law
Is this linear growth or exponential growth? Explain your answer?
Is this linear growth or exponential growth? Explain your answer?
New Yorkers see
the world
logarithmically
Summary
Resources
Play around with this exponential demonstration spreadsheet:
http://som.csudh.edu/fac/lpress/netapps/hout/techprogress/exponent
ialgrowth.xls
Moore’s Law article:
ftp://download.intel.com/museum/Moores_Law/ArticlesPress_Releases/Gordon_Moore_1965_Article.pdf
For more on Moore’s Law, see:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore's_law
Wolfram Alpha Moore’s law calculator:
http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=moore's+law
Self-test questions
Before answering these questions, play around with the spreadsheet at:
http://som.csudh.edu/fac/lpress/presentations/exponentialgrowth.xlsx
1. How does the graph change when the original amount is increased from $1,000 to
$10,000? To $1? To $1,000,000?
2. What does the graph look like when annual growth is only 1%? 50%? 100$ 300%?
3. If sales grows at only 1 percent per year, is that considered exponential growth?
4. If plotted on a linear scale, will 1% growth per year be a straight line or a “hockey
stick?”
5. If plotted on a logarithmic scale, will 1% growth per year be a straight line or a “hockey
stick?”
6. If automobile gas mileage doubled each year, how many miles per gallon would a
typical car get in ten years?
7. The first CPU chip had about 2,300 transistors in 1971. A CPU might have 2.3 billion
today. How many times has the number of transistors doubled since 1971?