Transcript eGovernment - Archive

The Future of technology….& the
end of government as we know IT?
Peter Cochrane
ConceptLabs CA
Disruptive technologies - Example
A homework assignment for a 14 year old!
You may wish to close your eyes
Where have we come from…
…and where are we heading?
Satanic Mills
Fordism…
•mass production
•mass automation
•increased efficiency
•much more for much less
•deskilling
•fewer employed
•a new techno-elite
•more administration
•more non-essential people
Growing hierarchies
•centralized control
•less risk taking
•focus on cost cutting
•less adaptable
•prone to massive failure
Virtual business
•
•
•
•
•
•
no hierarchies
death of geography
fluctuating assets
information intensive
highly adaptable
rapid birth - death
Machine takeover
•very few people
•humans augmentation
•AI & AL takeover
•adaptable within limits
•prone to over production
Industry migrating to geographically
dispersed networks and clusters…
…the globalisation of everything…
The co-location
=collaboration
myth
~10%
~2%
~0.4%
Likelihood of
collaboration
And governments?
•change is very hard!
•lagging on all fronts
•limited public purse
•not really a business
•no competition
•old minds
•growing hierarchy
•growing bureaucracy
•losing control
•losing influence
People are doing…
whatever it takes to win!
They will no longer wait for slow
companies or government - they
are now far more inclined to ignore
the law and just do it!
Three types of worker
Part-time
Individual benefits
Lifestyle
pursuit
•Skill
utilisation
•Goal focus
Project
Expression
focused
Autonomy
contractor
•Agiltiy Business benefits
•Cost
efficiency
Career
Security
•Skill
advantage
•Innovation
Core
Challenges for the individual
•understand company
•understand business
•keep skilled
•track technology demand
•share commitment
•no back up/support
•work in virtual teams
•use latest media
•balance demands
•feast to famine cycles
BUT - some people
just don’t get IT!
We have come a long way!
BUT We are such linear thinkers…
We don’t cope well with multiple dimensions
We confuse data and information
We store the useless and misplace the useful
We need knowledge but create a fog of confusion
Networks and networking might just save us!
So innocent looking…
y=
x
e
…it is compound interest on steroids!
It aint about $ - it is about time
Technology
Rate of change
Companies
Business
Society
People
Legal Systems
Governments
Today
Time
A future of man, woman & machine...
FLOPS
10
10 15
10 13
10 12
17
Teraflop
CM-5
CM-2
11
10
10 10
10 9
8
10
10 7
10 6
10 5
10 4
10 3
10 2
10
1
0.1
100,000
Teraflop
desktop
Cray Y-MP
Stretch
LARC
IBM 704
ENIAC
Relays
Vacuum tubes
1960
Cray C-90
Multiprocessors
Vector
Scalar
UNIVAC
1950
Cray -2
CDC
1604
1000x
1940
CDC 6600
ILLIAC IV
Delta
Massively
parallel
Cray X-MP
Cray-1
CDC 7600
Human Brain
Transistors
Micro-processors
Integrated circuits
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
The ‘S’ Curve
Technology
$
time
The ‘S’ Curve Continuum
Technology
$
DVD
CD
Cassette
Tape
Tape
time
Moore’s Wall
Log Scale
3D ICs
Molecular
Quantum
Genetic
Biological
Optical
Computing
ICn
IC5
IC4
IC3
New
IC2
Sensors
Networks
Software
Lifeforms
Intelligences
IC1
Transistor
Thermionic
Tube
1915 46
59
2010
2025
Telecoms Capacity & Demand
10
11
10
WDM
optical fibre
coax PCM
coax carrier
pair-cable PCM
9
7
transmission 10
capacity
5
(bit/s)
10
10
3
10
1
pair-cable carrier capacity available
radio
telephone
capacity used
telegraph
1840
Analogue
PONS
DWDM
1880
Digital
1920
1960
Analogue
2000
Digital
2040
An/Dig
Information Growth
TBytes
1000,000
100,000
10,000
1,000
100
10
Library of
Alexandria Printing
destroyed
Electronic
storage
1
0.1
100
300
1000
2000
Year
No one knows anything anymore...
Highly
specialised
The fount
of all
knowledge
1800
Becoming
specialised
1900
TODAY
All knowledge
through
technology?
2000 +
Variables
If only it was all this simple...
Markets
Industry Dimensions
Political
Regulation
Globalisation
Competition
Organisation
Convergence
Segmentation
Strategy
Technology
Economic
Customers
Social
Axiom 1: Mutually exclusive...
Efficiency
Brittleness
Process
Definition
Control
Hierarchy
Reliability
Adaptable - Fleet of Foot
Axiom 2: Mutually exclusive...
Productivity
Wealth
Generation
Creativity
Freedom
Risk
Security, Constraints, Irrationality,
Lack of understanding, Rumour…
Not so Axiomatic…
...Exponential Failure
Brittleness
Sudden, cliff
Like failures

Analogue
Is it brittle?

Is it visible?

I only see it
when it fails!
Digital
Exponentially more
for exponentially less...
Bit/s
Cost/Bit
1890
1990
Manufacture Distribution
R
E
T
A
I
L
Recycle
Raw
Materials
Ecosystem
Trash
Trash
Consumer
Consumer
Raw
Materials
Recycle
B-B Manufacture
B-BDistribution
B-B
Ecosystem
Trash
Trash
C-B
C-C B-C
obile
Consumer
Consumer
R
E
T
A
I
L
Adam Smith…et al
3/4D Thinking
Finite
Source
Linear Channel
Limited
materials
production
routes to market
finance
communication
Finite
Sink
Limited
population
appetites
expectation
finance
communication
Today
nD - NonLinear Thinking
Infinite
Source
Unlimited
(materials?) - bits
production
routes to market
finance
communication
Non
Linear
Channel/s
Infinite
Sink
Unlimited
population
appetites
expectation
finance
communication
The Future is Chaos!
2000s
1980s
Hierarchical
Structured
Telegraph
Telephone
Self- Organised
and Chaotic
Internet ?
Intranets
A connected world is chaotic….
200
150
Net visitors come in packs….
Active
100
Site
Visitors
50
0
00.00
06.00
12.00
Hour of the Day
18.00
24.00
The dotcom bust!
•
•
•
•
•
Greed
Stupidity
Naivety
The old economy torpedoed the new
No bandwidth in the local loop!
But this is but a glitch - the internet is very young
- and so are mobile phones, PDAs, PCs,
wearables, things & people on line etc
3G Carnage!
If we ran a company....
Direct Customers
Dealerships
Sub-Contracts
Company
Modules
Components
Raw Materials
If we ran a company....
Cost/Price/Unit
Company
Utilisation
Get the utilisation up...
...get the costs down...
But many companies do this....
Direct Customers
Unit
Raw Materials
Let’s create expense by internal constraints...
...and an internal only market...
Many companies...don’t do this...
Cost/Price/Unit
Co
Cost/Price/Unit
Utilisation
Co
Cost/Price/Unit
Utilisation
Co
Cost/Price/Unit
Utilisation
Co
Utilisation
They do this...
Cost/Price/Unit
Co
Utilisation
Cost/Price/Unit
Co
Cost/Price/Unit
Utilisation
Cost/Price/Unit
Utilisation
Co
Co
Utilisation
And worse....they stove pipe...
Cost/Price/Unit
Solutions
Co
Co
Co
Co
Utilisation
Cost/Price/Unit
Operations
Systems
Network
Co
Co
Co
Co
Co
Co
Co
Co
Co
Co
Cost/Price/Unit
Utilisation
Cost/Price/Unit
Utilisation
Co
Co
Utilisation
If only more companies looked..
like this...
Solutions
Co
Co
Co
Co
Operations
Co
Co
Co
Co
Systems
Co
Co
Co
Co
Co
Co
Co
Co
Network
From the few to the many...
Concentrated
Expertise & Skill
Distributed
Ignorance
Technology
Telephone
Computing
Copiers
Printing
Operators
Mainframe
Corp Centre
Hot Metal
Dial & Buttons
PC
Office Xerox
Offset/Laser Jet
From the few to the many...
Concentrated
Expertise & Skill
Distributed
Ignorance
Ability to Compete
Technology
$
~Nn
N
Where is the energy?
Internalised
Externalised
Technology
Centralised Control - Hierarchy
Inflexible & Ponderous
Dispersed - Chaotic
Adaptable Fleet of Foot
Recent experience…
Fixed
Phone
Cellular
Phone
LAN
WLAN
802.11
Getting on-line
in the EU
NO
• WLAN
• LAN
• 2nd Phone Line
• Socket Standard
The future - think beyond IT!
Artificial Intelligence
Artificial Life
Robotics
Materials
Genetics
Proteonics
NonoTech
Non-linear optics
Quantum computing
et al
More & faster
change than ever
before in our
history - and it
will be (slightly!)
out of control
The really big issues?
Ageing populations - fewer workers
Health & Care - less money more demand
Education & Training - the wrong model
Logistics - can we afford to keep travelling
Energy - we are eating the planet
Security - a 13th century enemy?
Defence - just who & where is the enemy?
Globalization - inevitable but hard to do
Can government keep up/be effective?
Can government get out of the way?
Can social research ever get relevant?
Can technology help?
Net Spectrum
Telephone
Internet
100%
Hierarchy
Control
0%
Random
Static
Economy
Parasitic
100%
Internet
Bursty
Traffic
Resilience
Latency
Flexibility
Reliability
Parasitic Scalability
0%
Chaotic
Mobile
What do we need?
Less government and control
More freedom of communication
More freedom of movement
More freedom of action
More freedom of trade
Lower hierarchies
More start-up companies to replace the old
A better educated & more adaptable population
More self sufficiency
In order to create vibrant economies!
Thank you,
cochrane.org.uk
conceptlabs.net