Transcript Continuous Uncertainty and Change

Rapid Change and Uncertainty
Some Examples of What’s Happening Now
(that weren’t dreamed of a short while ago)
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1
The Paris edition of the New York
Herald summed up Europe's opinion of
the Wright brothers in an editorial on
February 10, 1906: "The Wright have
flown or they have not flown. They
possess a machine or they do not
possess one. They are in fact either
fliers or liars. It is difficult to fly. It's
100 Years
easy to say, 'We have flown.'"
The launch, as seen from the
International Space Station
One Life Time
On November 12, 1906, Alberto SantosDumont flew 220 meters (726 feet),
capturing the 1500 franc Aero-Club de
France prize from the Aero-Club for the
first 100-meter flight.
www.first-to-fly.com/History/Wright%20Story/prizepatrol.htm
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2
Flight’s First Fatality
Sept 17, 1908 – First Crash
Orville Wright crashed his
plane, killing his passenger,
Lt. Thomas E. Selfridge.
Orville was badly hurt.
Orville Wright was showing
off a new “aeroplane” at
Fort Myer, Va., for about
2,000 people, including
Army brass. He took up a
26-year-old lieutenant in the
Army Signal Corps.
The pair apparently made
three and a half successful
circuits at an altitude of
about 75 feet, before a
propeller split and hit other
parts of the plane, causing
it to crash.
Still, the Army was
impressed, so much so that
the War Department
eventually bought the
Wrights’ invention.
www.nytimes.com/2008/07/27/weekinreview/27wald.html
Mansell/Time & Life Pictures — Getty Images
100 Years
One Life Time
April 22, 2008 – Last Flight
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3
Cracker-size satellites launch April 2011
toward populating the Earth's orbit with tiny ‘space-chips’
www.csmonitor.com/Science/2011/0429/Cracker-size-satellites-to-launch-with-Space-Shuttle-Endeavour
Three tiny satellites, each the size of only a cracker, will launch tomorrow (April 29, 2011). Such
devices, which can be made even smaller, could transform future space exploration and the cost of
launching satellites.
The next logical step? "We are working on a satellite on a chip — satellites the size of a fingernail,“
"Instead of a spaceship, think of a 'space-chip.'“ These penny-size orbiters could pack sensors, a
microchip brain and an antenna to broadcast their findings. In terms of propulsion, they could use
their entire surface to reflect light in the manner of a solar sail, and vaporize extraordinarily thin
films of material to rotate.
Although each satellite-on-a-chip might not be able to do much on its own, Peck said that if each weighed about one-tenth
of a gram, that would amount to 10,000 per kilogram, or 10 million per metric ton (2,200 pounds), enough to spread a
swarm of penny-size satellites over the Earth, scanning the planet for roughly the equivalent price of one large satellite.
"I believe this satellite-on-chip idea is transformative — it forces a rethink of how one does space exploration," Peck told
SPACE.com.
These prototypes, made from relatively heavy commercial off-the-shelf components, are 1.5 inches by 1.5 inches (3.8 cm by
3.8. cm) and about 0.08 inches (2 millimeters) thick, with a mass that weighs about 10 grams on Earth.
They each contain seven solar cells, a microprocessor, an antenna and amplifier, power storage in capacitors, and
switching circuitry to turn on the microprocessor when the stored energy is enough to create a single radio-frequency
emission.
Optimized versions of these devices would just be about 10 to 50 milligrams, 0.5 inches by 0.5 inches (1.4 cm by 1.4 cm)
large and 20 microns thick — "at that thickness, they act as respectable solar sails," Peck said.
Miniature satellites in low-Earth orbit - One concern about these satellites is whether they would pose a danger to larger
satellites. Objects in low-Earth orbit are typically moving at nearly 17,000 mph (27,000 kilometers per hour), and even tiny
bits of space debris can wreak havoc.
Addressing these fears, Peck noted that the miniature satellites would be deployed in very low orbit, just 180 to 250 miles
(300 to 400 kilometers) above the Earth. The planet's atmosphere at that altitude is tenuous, but still enough to start
dragging the penny-size orbiters down virtually immediately, Peck said.
Intriguingly, since these satellites are so tiny, atmospheric drag would quickly decelerate them to speeds less than the
speed of sound. This slow re-entry means they effectively would flutter all the way down, avoiding the friction that
spectacularly turns larger meteoroids into shooting stars.
As such, a satellite-on-a-chip could observe a target or sample the uppermost atmosphere throughout its descent.
"It's not about reducing cost, although that may be a nice benefit," Peck said. "Instead, we are re-conceiving spacecraft
architectures and exploration missions for this tiny scale. The way tiny spacecraft work is radically different from how
larger ones work, and it's even qualitatively different from how CubeSats or smartphone-size satellites work."
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4
www.gizmag.com/sysbrain-allows-satellites-to-act-autonomously/17899/picture/130386/
High above the surface of the
Earth, satellites are pretty
much left to fend for
themselves – if a piece of
space junk is drifting towards
one, for instance, no one is
going to be there to push it
out of the way.
To address this type of situation,
engineers from the University of
Southampton have developed what
they say is the world’s first control
system for programing satellites to
think for themselves. It’s a cognitive
software agent called sysbrain, and it
allows satellites to read Englishlanguage technical documents, which
in turn instruct the satellites on how to
do things such as autonomously
identifying and avoiding obstacles.
The collision-avoidance system has
been tested using models in a
Southampton lab. Miniature satellites
were created that glided across a
perfectly-level smooth glass table on
The model satellites used to test sysbrain integrated ball bearings, to simulate the
frictionless environment of space.
Overhead visual markers stood in for
celestial bodies, which the satellites
would use for navigation via onboard
cameras.
Using sysbrain, inertia sensors and additional cameras, the models were able to navigate their way across the table while
simultaneously detecting and avoiding one another.
The system is programed and updated via special English-language digital documents, which sysbrain “reads” using
natural language programming (NLP). The type of English used to write them is known as sEnglish, which is short for
“system English.” Devices equipped with sysbrain could read such documents directly off the internet, which would allow
their control system to be updated remotely – although outer space internet is still a work in progress, sysbrain has also
been suggested for use in a variety of terrestrial vehicles.
16Feb2011:
New control system will
allow satellites to 'think for themselves’
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5
http://www.chinanews.cn//news/2005/2006-11-26/30611.html
The Sombrero Galaxy - 28 million light years from
Earth - was voted best picture taken by the Hubble
telescope. The dimensions of the galaxy are as
spectacular as its appearance. It has 800 billion
suns and is 50,000 light years across.
Hubble telescope's top 10 greatest photos
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/galleries/index.html?in_gallery_id=9139&in_page_id=1055
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6
Electricity w/o the Network
http://sfreporter.com/articles/publish/outtake-112107-nuke-to-the-future.php
The portable nuclear reactor is the size of a hot
tub. It’s shaped like a sake cup, filled with a
uranium hydride core and surrounded by a
hydrogen atmosphere. Encase it in concrete,
truck it to a site, bury it underground, hook it up
to a steam turbine and, voila, one would generate
enough electricity to power a 25,000-home
community for at least five years.
The company Hyperion Power Generation was
formed last month to develop the nuclear fission
reactor at Los Alamos National Laboratory and
take it into the private sector. If all goes according
to plan, Hyperion could have a factory in New
Mexico by late 2012, and begin producing 4,000 of
these reactors.
Though it would produce 27 megawatts worth of
thermal energy, Hyperion doesn’t like to think of
its product as a “reactor.” It’s self-contained,
involves no moving parts and, therefore, doesn’t
require a human operator.
“We prefer to call it a ‘battery’ in that it’s so safe,”
Hyperion spokeswoman Deborah Blackwell says.
“Like you don’t open a double-A battery, you just
plug it in and it does its chemical thing. You don’t
ever open it or mess with it.”
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7
New Mind-Control Headset for PCs
wireless sensors help users run some programs with their thoughts - http://emotiv.com/
What if you could simply think about an action, and the computer
would respond? Emotiv is currently fine-tuning a mind-reading
headset called the Epoc, which should ship late this year. The
$299 device purports to eavesdrop on your thoughts and
translate them into computer instructions.
If you think about lifting a heavy object, neurons in your brain fire
in a particular pattern. Push a door, and it's a different pattern—
and the headset can tell the difference. Emotiv bundles the
headset with a fantasy game that includes practice exercises to
tune the device to each user's unique thought processes. After
that, you can raise a boulder by thinking "lift," or bend a tree by
thinking "pull.“
In one of the training sequences, I had to imagine a cube and then will it to
disappear. After a little practice, I was able to cause a cube on the computer
screen to wink in and out of existence just by thinking of it.
The sensors in the headset also respond to certain facial expressions, such as
anger or delight, which can be transferred to characters displayed on the screen.
What's more, certain emotions produce characteristic electrical patterns. If you
can summon up aggressive thoughts, the software will respond with certain
actions in the game. I was able to chase away some flying wraithlike creatures
just by thinking agitated, evil thoughts.
Emotiv and a rival Silicon Valley company, NeuroSky, initially are targeting the
entertainment market. But both startups say they're in touch with companies in
other industries, including manufacturers of TVs, medical devices, and
Jul 30, 2008, Cliff Edwards, www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/08_32/b4095000909813.htm
automobiles.
8
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Clearly, Frankly, Unabashedly Disabled
Stephanie Diani for The New York Times
PLAIN SIGHT Baring her prosthetic leg for the world to see, Sarah
Reinertsen hits the floor at Holly’s in Los Angeles. Ms. Reinertsen was a
contestant on “The Amazing Race.”
- New York Times, 5/13/07
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9
LEDs in your contact lenses?
www.news.com/2300-11393_3-6227089-2.html?tag=ne.gall.pg
Researchers at the University of Washington in
Seattle have developed a prototype contact lens
that incorporates an imprinted electronic circuit
and lights. The prototype is a step toward
creating a form of bionic vision, the researchers
say.
The researchers say the flexible lens is
biologically safe and was worn by rabbits for up
to 20 minutes with no adverse effects. Along
with a circuit, the prototype contains red LEDs
for a display.
Despite the display being on the cornea of the
eye, the image it shows would appear to be on
an exterior object such as the windshield of a
car, or might even seem to be in midair for
people browsing the Internet or immersing
themselves in a virtual world.
"Looking through a completed lens, you would see what the display is generating
superimposed on the world outside," Parviz said in a statement when the research
was made public last week. The images wouldn't obstruct a wearer's view,
researchers added. "There is a large area outside of the transparent part of the
eye that we can use for placing instrumentation," Parviz said.
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10
BrainGate
neural interface system
reaches 1,000-day
performance milestone
March 24, 2011
http://news.brown.edu/pressreleases/2011/03/braingate
The system is currently in pilot
clinical trials, and uses a
silicon electrode array, about
the size of a baby aspirin, to
read neural signals directly
within brain tissue.
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11
Models of Eel Cells Suggest Electrifying Possibilities
www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2008-10/nios-moe100208.php
2008: A paper by researchers at Yale and the
National Institute of Standards and
Technology takes it to a cellular level.
Artificial cells could be built that not only
replicate the electrical behavior of electric
eel cells but in fact improve on them. Their
calculations show that substantial
improvements are possible.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-15305579
Electric eel anatomy: The first detail
shows stacks of electrocytes, cells
linked in series (to build up voltage) and
parallel (to build up current). Second
detail shows an individual cell with ion
channels and pumps penetratimng the
membrance, The Yale/NIST model
represents the behavior of several such
cells. Final detail shows an individual ion
channel, one of the building blocks of
the model. [Daniel Zukowski, Yale University]
2011: The BBC covers a team of scientists
who are working on a new way to power
medical implants: an internal biofuel cell.
Called a biofuel cell, it uses glucose and
oxygen at concentrations found in the body
to generate electricity. They are the first
group in the world to demonstrate their
device working while implanted in a living
animal. If all goes to plan, biofuel cells may
be used to power a range of medical
implants. In 2010, they tested their fuel cell in
a rat for 40 days and reported that it worked
flawlessly, producing a steady electrical
current throughout, with no noticeable side
effects on the rat's behavior or physiology.'
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12
OEM Robot Bases
http://www.activrobots.com/
The 10-robot Collaboration Pack
provides valuable cross-platform
opportunities for both
researchers and students. From
the speedy Research PatrolBot
platform, able to carry up to
40kgs, to the human interaction
capabilities of PeopleBot, the allterrain power of P3-AT and the
versatility of P3-DX, the
Collaboration Pack provides an
outstanding collection of robots
for a strong robotics program.
Platforms have good I/O extensibility. The basic platforms may be
upgraded with many accessories and options and include the
power of SONARNL sonar localization and navigation with ARIA
C++ libraries, ARNetworking and Demo programs out of the box.
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13
BigDog
www.YouTube.com/BostonDynamics
www.bostondynamics.com/robot_bigdog.html
BigDog (March 2006) is the alpha male of the
Boston Dynamics robots. It is a rough-terrain
robot that walks, runs, climbs and carries
heavy loads. BigDog is powered by an engine
that drives a hydraulic actuation system.
BigDog has four legs that are articulated like an
animal’s, with compliant elements to absorb
shock and recycle energy from one step to the
next. BigDog is the size of a large dog or small
mule; about 3 feet long, 2.5 feet tall and weighs
240 lbs.
In separate tests BigDog runs at 4 mph, climbs
slopes up to 35 degrees, walks across rubble,
climbs a muddy hiking trail, walks in snow and
water, and carries a 340 lb load. BigDog set a
world's record for legged vehicles by traveling
12.8 miles without stopping or refueling.
AlphaDog (Sep 2011) is a lab prototype for the
Legged Squad Support System. When fully
developed the system will carry 400 lbs of
payload on 20-mile missions in rough terrain.
The first version of the complete robot will be
completed in 2012. AlphaDog is designed to be
over 10x quieter than BigDog. The field version
of AlphaDog will have a head packed with
terrain sensors.
For more information visit us at
www.BostonDynamics.com.
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14
Dragonfly-like
Micro Air Vehicle
(MAV)
July 2008
Weight 3 grams.
10 cm tip-to-tip.
Speed 5 m/sec.
Flies 3 mins on
1 gram battery.
File1
www.delfly.nl/?site=DIII&menu=media&lang=nl
0.4 gram camera and
transmitter of the
DelFly micro
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15
High-Speed Robot Hand
Demonstrates Dexterity and Skillful Manipulation
August 3, 2009 by Travis Deyle, http://www.hizook.com/blog/2009/08/03/high-speed-robot-hand-demonstrates-dexterity-and-skillful-manipulation
A few blogs are passing around videos of the Ishikawa Komuro Lab's high-speed robot hand
performing impressive acts of dexterity and skillful manipulation. However, the video being
passed around is slight on details. Meanwhile, their video presentation at ICRA 2009 (which
took place in May in Kobe, Japan) has an informative narration and demonstrates additional
capabilities. I have included this video below, which shows the manipulator dribbling a pingpong ball, spinning a pen, throwing a ball, tying knots, grasping a grain of rice with tweezers,
and tossing / re-grasping a cellphone!
File 3
Based on the video, the hand uses high-speed
actuators with harmonic drive gears. The hand
can close in 1/10th of a second! Personally, I
find the tweezers grasping the grain of rice the
most entertaining -- very anthropomorphic.
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16
From AeroVironment, the company behind the largest, highest and longest flying
unmanned aircraft system (UAS), the Global Observer, now comes the “Nano
Hummingbird”. Controlled precision hovering and fast-forward flight of a twowing, flapping wing aircraft that carries its own energy source and relies only on
its flapping wings for propulsion and control. Part of a DARPA Phase II contract.
The hand-made final concept demonstrator
has a wingspan of 16 cm (6.5 in)
and weighs just 19 g (2/3 oz), less
than the weight of a AA battery.
This has all the systems required
for flight, including batteries,
motors, communications systems
and even a video camera.
Film1.5
17Feb2011
www.gizmag.com/aerovironment-nano-hummingbird/17918/ with video at
www.suasnews.com/2011/02/3815/aerovironment-develops-world%E2%80%99s-first-fully-operational-life-size-hummingbird-like-unmanned-aircraft-for-darpa/
Better video at www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Rfx_FRKdS8&feature=related
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17
Google Cars Drive Themselves, in Traffic
File1
04Mar2011, http://www.ispyce.com/2011/03/smarter-than-you-think-google-cars.html
Google’s Sebastian Thrun, at TED 2011, showed a video montage of the auto-driving cars on regular roads that was pretty
amazing. You could see the cars avoiding things like a deer that dashed in front of one or another making it carefully
around a small hillside road, as a large truck came toward it. During a half-hour drive beginning on Google’s campus 35
miles south of San Francisco last Wednesday, a Prius equipped with a variety of sensors and following a route
programmed into the GPS navigation system nimbly accelerated in the entrance lane and merged into fast-moving traffic
on Highway 101, the freeway through Silicon Valley.
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18
Robot Controlled By Rat Brain Continues Progress
http://singularityhub.com/2010/10/06/videos-of-robot-controlled-by-rat-brain-amazing-technology-still-moving-forward/
Some technologies are so coo. Case in point:
robots being controlled by rat brains. Kevin
Warwick at the University of Reading, has been
working on creating neural networks that can
control machines.
He and his team have taken the brain cells from
rats, cultured them, and used them as the
guidance control circuit for simple wheeled
robots. Electrical impulses from the bot enter
the batch of neurons, and responses from the
cells are turned into commands for the device.
The cells can form new connections, making
the system a true learning machine. He and his
competitors continue to move this technology
forward – animal cyborgs are real.
The skills of these rat-robot hybrids are very basic
at this point. Mainly the neuron control helps the
robot to avoid walls. Yet that obstacle avoidance
often shows clear improvement over time,
demonstrating how networks of neurons can grant
simple learning to the machines.
As Warwick points out again and again, these
cyborgs are going to become more advanced,
probably sooner rather than later. Current cultures
of neurons have about 100,000 cells, but only a
small fraction are actually involved in controlling
the robot circuits at any given time.
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File1, File1.5, File 4
19
China Erects 15 Story Hotel in Less Than 6 Days!
File2.2
January 25th, 2011 by Aaron Saenz, http://singularityhub.com/2011/01/25/china-erects-15-story-hotel-in-less-than-6-days-video/
A team of 200 workers
erected the 15 story internal
structure in just 46.5 hours!
External construction took
another 90 hours, for a total
of less than 6 days.
According to Broad, the
hotel is built to withstand a
9.0 earthquake while using
one sixth the material and
costing 20% less.
They plan on constructing
15 similar structures in
China and 30 more abroad. If
successful, this could create
a new wave of innovation in
industrial construction.
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20
http://www.lyricsemiconductor.com/ and http://www.lyricsemiconductor.com/news.htm
MIT Spin-out Lyric Semiconductor Launches a New Kind of Computing with Probability Processing Circuits
Breakthrough Error Correction for Flash Memories Now Available; Future Technology to Enable 1,000X Performance Over Today’s Digital
Processors
Lyric Semiconductor, Inc. a DARPA- and venture-funded MIT spin-out, today emerged from stealth mode to launch a new technology called
probability processing, which is poised to deliver a fundamental change in processing performance and power consumption. With over a decade of
development at MIT and at Lyric Semiconductor, Lyric’s probability processing technology calculates in a completely new way, enabling orders-ofmagnitude improvement in processor efficiency. Lyric Error Correction (LEC™) for flash memory, the first commercial application of probability
processing, offers a 30X reduction in die size and a 12X improvement in power consumption all at higher throughput compared to today’s digital
solutions. Lyric Semiconductor has developed an alternative to digital computing. The company is redesigning processing circuits from the ground
up to natively process probabilities – from the gate circuits to the processor architecture to the programming language. As a result, many
applications that today require a thousand conventional processors will soon run in just one Lyric processor, providing 1,000X efficiencies in cost,
power, and size.
For over 60 years, computers have been based on digital computing principles. Data is represented as bits (1s and 0s). Boolean logic gates perform
operations on these bits. Lyric has invented a new kind of logic gate circuit that uses transistors as dimmer switches instead of as on/off switches.
These circuits can accept inputs and calculate outputs that are between 0 and 1, directly representing probabilities - levels of certainty.
A digital processor steps through these operations serially in order to perform a function. In order to improve efficiency even further, Lyric’s
processors are designed to perform many probability computations in parallel.
Lyric’s approach can accelerate search, fraud detection, spam filtering, financial modeling, genome sequence analysis, and many other important
present and future applications that involve simultaneously considering many possible alternatives and deciding on the best fit – the best guess for
the answer. In theory, digital processors can perform these calculations, but in practice, they do so very inefficiently. As a result, a huge amount of
processing overhead is required, costing an enormous amount of space, power and money.
The GP5™ - Beyond today’s LEC technology, Lyric is developing the GP5™ – a general-purpose programmable probability processing platform. The
GP5 will be ideally suited to calculate probabilities for all types of applications – from web searches to genome sequencing – and could enable
performance gains of 1,000X over today’s digital x86-based systems such as the processors from Intel and AMD. The GP5 will run code written in
Lyric’s own probability programming language called PSBL™ (Probability Synthesis to Bayesian Logic), an expressive computer programming
language for working with probability based computations. Lyric will leverage its probability processor and programming technologies to deliver
disruptive total systems to its customers.
Availability - Lyric’s LEC technology is currently available for license, accompanied by support services enabling product integration within 12
months. Beyond LEC, the first GP5 will begin sampling in 2013.
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21
http://diydrones.com/profiles/blog/show?id=705844%3ABlogPost%3A728
"The US has not had to truly
think about its air defense since
the Cold War. But as America
embraces the use of unmanned
aerial vehicles, Newsweek says
it's time to consider how our greatest new
weapon may come back to bite us. Smaller UAVs'
cool, battery-powered engines make them difficult
to hit with conventional heat-seeking missiles.
And while Patriot missiles can take out UAVs, at
$3 million apiece such protection carries a steep
price tag, especially if we have to deal with $500 DIY drones.”
slashdot, 27Feb2010, http://tech.slashdot.org/story/10/02/27/1317242/Defending-Against-Drones
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------The aim of this project is to both make the world's cheapest full-featured UAV and
the first one designed to be within the reach of high school and below kids.
Features: In GPS mode, unlimited pre-programmed waypoints, with
programmable options such as circle and hold. Ability to integrate other sensors,
such as ultrasonic, compass, gyros, accelerometers, or barometric pressure
(altitude). With optional bluetooth cellphone integration, control via text message,
including dynamical-changed GPS waypoints, "come home" and "circle"
commands, etc.
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22
Remote Control Bomb
www.onetrendblog.com/remote-control-bomb/365/
If flying remote control planes doesn’t
sound like fun to you… imagine dropping
remote controlled bombs while flying a
remote control plane. Sounds a whole lot
more exciting, doesn’t it?
That’s what the makers of the $17 Quanum RC Bomb System were thinking, and I have to
agree with them. It looks fairly realistic, and is simple to install for any RC plane
enthusiast. It sticks to the underside of and .25 size or larger RC aircraft, and is triggered by
an extra servo channel in your receiver. That means you can drop it at just the right
moment to assault your target.
The bomb is made of a durable nylon material, and can be filled with anything your evil mind
can come up with. It also comes with a custom release plate, so you can use it to drop
items other than the bomb, such as flowers… but somehow I don’t think I’d ever use that
function!
23
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Photo: Christoph Morlinghaus
Drug Runners’
Jungle-Built,
Kevlar-Coated,
Supersubs
12Mar2011, Wired
A cargo hold in the sub's bow can hold up to
9 tons of cocaine, worth about $250 million
www.wired.com/magazine/2011/03/ff_drugsub/all/1
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24
http://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/news/2011/02/anonymous-speaks-the-inside-story-of-the-hbgary-hack.ars/
Anonymous is a diverse bunch: though they tend to be younger rather than older,
their age group spans decades. Some may still be in school, but many others are
gainfully employed office-workers, software developers, or IT support technicians,
among other things. With that diversity in age and experience comes a diversity of
expertise and ability.
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25
Predator-Style
Helmets Allow Pilots to See Through Planes!
See video – Grumman F-35 Electro Optical Distributed Aperture System EO-DAS: www.youtube.com/user/F35JSFVideos#p/u/7/CwvnhFgzIKI
File-5.5
It superimposes
infra-red imagery on
the visor to let the
pilot look through
the floor, day or
night, and see the
world below
They can see
through their jet's
fuselage to spy
targets on the
ground.
No need for a
dashboard - cockpit
info is projected on
to the pilot's visor to
give directions on
navigation and
engaging the
enemy.
http://defensetech.org/2007/11/09/the-freaky-f-35-lid/
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26