Transcript Insights on science needs arising from Integrated Science

Insights on science needs arising from
Integrated Science Assessments
John Vandenberg, PhD
Human Health Risk Assessment National Program Director
Division Director
National Center for Environmental Assessment (NCEA)
Office of Research and Development
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Air Quality Applied Sciences Team 10th Semi-Annual Meeting (AQAST 10)
Research Triangle Park, NC
January 5, 2016and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the U.S. EPA.
Office of Research and Development
National Center for Environmental Assessment, Research Triangle Park, NC
September 30, 2015
Clean Air Act – National Ambient Air Quality Standards
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Clean Air Act (CAA) requires EPA to review “air quality criteria” and
the National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) every 5 years
for O3, PM, CO, SO2, NO2, and Pb
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Air quality criteria are to “accurately reflect latest scientific knowledge”
Primary (health-based) and secondary (welfare-based) NAAQS based on the
air quality criteria
Requires the Administrator to appoint an independent scientific
committee, i.e. the Clean Air Scientific Advisory Committee (CASAC)
to:
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Review the air quality criteria and NAAQS
“Recommend to the Administrator any new . . . standards and revisions to
existing [air quality] criteria and standards as may be appropriate”
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The NAAQS and the National Center for Environmental
Assessment (NCEA)’s Role
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NAAQS program has been identified as extremely important to public health
protection
 The PM NAAQS have been found by the White House Office of Management
and Budget (OMB) to represent one of the most cost-efficient of all federal
regulations (Report to Congress on the Costs and Benefits of Federal Regulations, June 2008)
 "the NAAQS review process...presents the equivalent of a five-star process for
incorporating science into regulatory policy." (Administrative Conference of the
United States report February 2012.)
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NCEA's role:
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Produce “Integrated Science Assessments (ISAs)
 Review the science characterization in exposure/risk and policy assessments
written by the Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards (OAQPS), in draft
and final rulemakings
 NCEA contributes to responses to comments on the science during rulemaking
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National Ambient Air Quality Standard Review Process
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Figure from the U.S. EPA. Preamble to the Integrated Science Assessments. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC,
EPA/600/R-15/067, 2015, available at http://cfpub.epa.gov/ncea/isa/recordisplay.cfm?deid=310244
Integrated Science Assessments
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Establish the scientific basis for NAAQS reviews
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Formerly known as the Air Quality Criteria Document (AQCD)
Evaluates and integrates evidence from across scientific disciplines –
atmospheric sciences, dosimetry, exposure, toxicology, controlled
human exposure, epidemiology, ecology or welfare effects
Makes causal determinations for health and/or welfare effects
Draws conclusions regarding quantitative concentration-response or
dose-response relationships, populations or lifestages potentially at
increased risk of effects
*U.S. EPA. Preamble to the Integrated Science Assessments. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC,
EPA/600/R-15/067, 2015, available at http://cfpub.epa.gov/ncea/isa/recordisplay.cfm?deid=310244
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ISA Development Process
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Fundamental process for developing an ISA:
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Literature Identification and Inclusion Criteria
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Literature searched for new findings since the previous ISA
Study selection based on evaluation of individual study quality
Evaluation, synthesis, and integration of the evidence; and
Development of scientific conclusions and causal determinations
Ongoing literature search process
Multi-pronged search strategy
Must have undergone scientific peer review
Must be ethically conducted
Must be published (or accepted) by cut-off date (approximately 2-3 months
before draft release)
Extensive CASAC peer review and public comment procedures
Studies identified at www.epa.gov/HERO
Ongoing Integrated Science Assessments
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Recently completed ISAs (regulatory decision-making underway)
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Ongoing ISAs
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Oxides of Nitrogen (NOx)-health criteria – Second draft ISA released in
January, 2015; final ISA anticipated in January, 2016
Oxides of Sulfur (SOx)-health criteria – Draft ISA released in November,
2015; CASAC meeting January, 2016
Upcoming ISAs
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Lead (Pb) ISA (June 2013) – proposed rulemaking in December 2014, final
rulemaking in 2016
Oxides of Nitrogen and Sulfur (NOxSOx)-ecological effects – ‘kickoff’
workshop in 2014; first draft ISA in 2016
Particulate Matter (PM) – ‘kickoff’ workshop in 2015; first draft ISA in 2017
Additional Information
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www.epa.gov/ncea/isa - ISAs
www.epa.gov/hero - ISA literature database
www.epa.gov/tnn/naaqs - NAAQS
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Example AQAST Projects: Past/Ongoing
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Air Quality Reanalysis (Translating Research to Services), led by
Greg Carmichael – modeled pollutant distributions constrained by
chemical and aerosol data to support health impacts studies
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Providing these distributions with direct reference to published epi studies would
be helpful for ISA development
Web-Enabled Tools for Air Quality Management Decision Support,
led by Jim Szykman and Scott Spak –
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web-based data resources and analytical tools to make NASA and EPA air
quality data more accessible to EPA and state analysts
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Example Past/Ongoing AQAST Projects, continued
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DYNAMO: DYnamic Inputs of Natural Conditions for Air Quality MOdels, led
by Daniel Cohan – ways to represent the dynamic changes in radiative
conditions (the changes in solar radiation due to changing clouds), biogenic
and wildfire emissions in AQ models using satellite data
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A clearer understanding of the potential role of climate-induced changes to all of
these “background” processes will be helpful in assessing anthropogenic
pollution impacts on health and ecosystems
Quantifying Source Contributions to O3 and PM2.5 Pollution Episodes
Across the Eastern U.S. led by Tracey Holloway and Arlene Fiore –
identifying the contributions of local emissions versus cross-state and crossnational pollution transport to background concentrations and exceptional
events
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This work will contribute to the on-going ISA discussion of the importance of
background and international sources on regional air quality
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Example Past/Ongoing AQAST Projects, continued
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Relationships and trends among satellite NO2 columns, NOx
emissions, and air quality in North America led by David Streets –
using satellite retrievals to verify, correct, and supplement (spatially,
temporally) estimates of current NOx emissions and recent trends in
North American inventories
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Improved spatial and temporal resolution of NOx emission inventories will assist
in narrowing uncertainties concerning anthropogenic versus background O3
Satellite Signatures of Trace Gas Emissions Associated with US Oil
& Natural Gas Extraction led by Anne M. Thompson – evaluating
regional levels of methane and other fossil gases
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See above
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Continuing Challenges
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Understanding the importance of background concentrations of
criteria pollutants (especially PM and O3) and international transport
Improving emission inventories for criteria pollutants and precursors
across all source sectors
Filling in gaps in the regulatory monitoring network, particularly in
remote areas; understanding the relationship between remotelysensed monitoring and ground measurements for criteria pollutants
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“Studies of spatial variability of human exposure indicate that the magnitude of the
error in exposure estimation increases with distance between the monitor and the
subject. As a result, there is a potential for exposure misclassification if the ambient
NO2 concentration measured at a given site differs from that at the location of an
epidemiologic study participant…” (Chapter 3 Conclusions, Integrated Science Assessment
for Oxides of Nitrogen– Health Criteria, 2nd External Release Draft, January 2015.)
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National NOx Monitoring System
National SOx Monitoring System
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Thank you
[email protected]
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