Transcript Air quality is the single most important environmental threat Chile

Using chemical
weather forecasting
models for real
policy outcomes
Marcelo Mena-Carrasco
Vice-Minister of the Environment, Chile
Air quality is the single most important
environmental threat Chile has to face.
8 billion dollars in health effects
per year.
Air quality causes at least 4.000
cases of premature mortality
Our
2014-2018
air
quality
management
strategy
will
address 87% of this risk.
Today 10 million people in Chile
breathe air that is above our
standards.
All Chilean Central Valley is surrounded by large
montain ranges.
National Air Quality Forecasting System for
Chile.
• Pablo Saide12, Marcelo Mena-Carrasco3, Laura Gallardo4,
Pablo Hernández3, Rodrigo Delgado5, Sebastián Tolvett3,
Gregory Carmichael1, Scott Spak1, Georg Grell6
1.
2.
3.
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5.
6.
Center for Global and Regional Environmental Research,
University of Iowa, Iowa City, Iowa.
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder,
Colorado.
Ministerio del Medio Ambiente, Santiago, Chile
CR2, Universidad de Chile
Dirección Meteorologica de Chile, Santiago, Chile.
NOAA, Boulder, Colorado.
Saide et al, 2011. Air quality measures must be taken
to prevent accumulation. Same day measures are ineffective.
2 to 3 days of bad
ventilation cause
episodes.
2009-2013 Working to build credibility on
dynamic modeling. 2014-2016: Deployment.
WRF-Chem Forecast System
2km resolution from Santiago to Osorno.
CO to PM2.5 proxy. Temperature corrected
concentrations due to wood burning stoves for
heating. 3 days of forecast
City by city weekend
effect analysis. City by
city duration of wood
burning emissions. Point
sources and mobile
source used. Population
density distributed
emissions.
Tuesday: Forecast says Emergency by Friday. Wood
burning ban for Wednesday
Wednesday. Model confirms emergency for Friday.
Wood burning ban for Thursday
Thursday: Weaker emergency forecasted for Friday. Decree Preemergency for Friday. (20% car ban+ 50% industry stops+wood
burning band.
Friday: Weak and very short pre-emergency
occurs. Emergency averted.
2013 Preemergency and emergencies:
48. 2016: 14. 71% reduction.
May 1 to August 30.
50
45
41
44
40
34
35
34
29
30
25
20
16
15
15
11
10
4
5
3
3
1
0
2013
2014
Alertas
2015
Preemergencias
Emergencias
2016