Transcript PPT - National Journal

Clean Power Plan Primer
Published: August 5, 2015
National Journal Presentation Credits
Producer: Katharine Conlon
Director: Afzal Bari
Power Plants are the Largest Single Source of
Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Primary Sources of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions in 2013
Agriculture
Commercial and Residential
Electricity Production
Production of
Goods
Transportation
Analysis
• The largest source of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions from human activities is from burning fossil fuels for electricity and
transportation.
• The new Clean Power Plan seeks to reduce the emissions from electricity production and sets limits for existing power plants.
Source: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, “Sources of Greenhouse Gas Emissions,” July 21, 2015.
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Clean Power Plan Sets Individual State Goals for
Reducing Emissions from Power Plants
2030 Emission Goals by State, Percentage Reduction from 2012 Historic Emission Values
WA
Recommendations and
detected threats
ND
MT
OR
VT
MN
ID
SD
WY
MI
PA
IA
NE
NV
UT
IL
CO
CA
KS
AZ
NM
OK
TX
OH
IN
MO
WV
VA
KY
NC
TN
AR
SC
MS
AL
GA
LA
AK
FL
HI
NH
MA
CT RI
NY
WI
ME
NJ
DE
MD
0-10%
11%-20%
21%-30%
31-40%
41-50%
No data*
*Vermont has no fossil-fuel electric power plants. Alaska and Hawaii have unique grid situations, and the EPA is still working on establishing their goals.
Analysis
• Idaho and Connecticut only have to reduce their emissions by less than 10% from 2012 levels.
• Eight states have to reduce emissions by more than 40% by 2030.
• The Environmental Protection Agency used a formula to decide the emission reduction goals for each state (see appendix for details).
Source: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, “Clean Power Plan State-Specific Fact Sheets,” August 3, 2015; National Journal Research, 2015.
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States Can Decide How to Reach Goals
for Reducing Emissions
Methods for Reducing Carbon Dioxide Emissions
Shift from coal power
plants to natural gas
power plants
Increase in renewable
energies such as solar,
wind, and nuclear
energy
Establish programs to
promote energy
efficiency in homes
Utilize a cap-and-trade
program or carbon
pricing
Analysis
• States have the flexibility to decide how they will meet their emission goals before submitting their plans.
• If a state refuses to decide on a method, the EPA would create a federal plan based on a cap-and-trade system.
• A final federal program will be decided in 2016 for those states not willing to comply.
Source: Brad Plumer, “How Obama’s Clean Power Plan Actually Works – Step by Step,” Vox, August 4, 2015.
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States Have Seven Years to Meet Initial
Emission Reduction Goals
Timeline for President Obama’s Clean Power Plan
2016
2018
2022
States with extensions
must submit plans to
the Environmental
Protection Agency
States may begin
submitting plans to the
Environmental
Protection Agency
2030
States continue to
follow the goal that
was set
States must start
cutting their carbon
dioxide emissions
Analysis
• States have until 2018 to submit plans on how they plan to meet their emission reduction goals, which they will then start
implementing by 2022 to meet initial reduction goals.
• The EPA predicts the rule will lower carbon dioxide emissions from the power sector by 32% from emission levels in 2005.
• States that do not submit plans for reducing emissions will have an imposed plan produced by the Environmental Protection Agency.
Source: Alex Guillen, “Obama Issues Landmark Climate Change Rule,” August 3, 2015.
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Carbon Dioxide Emissions are Down 15%
Since 2005 Levels
Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Electric Power Sector, 2000-2014
(Million Metric Tons of Carbon Dioxide)
2417 MMmt
2051 MMmt
1643 MMmt: 30% Emission
Reduction Goal for 2030
Analysis
• Electric power carbon emissions in the U.S. declined in five of the past nine years, and total emissions from the electric power sector
in 2014 was 15% below its 2005 level.
• The substitution of natural gas and the increase in renewable energy has led to an aggregate decrease in carbon dioxide emissions
from power plants in recent years.
• The EPA expects 20% further cuts in power-plant emissions by 2030 with the new plan.
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, “July 2015 Monthly Energy Review,” July 28, 2015; Perry Lindstrom, “Lower Electricity-Related CO2 Emissions Reflect Lower Carbon Intensity and
Electricity Use,” U.S. Energy Information Administration, October 23, 2014.
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Clean Power Plan Creates Political Tension
Winners and Losers with the Clean Power Plan Rule
Winners
President Obama
The rule would be an achievement for President Obama’s
climate change agenda
Renewable Energy
States will bring in more renewable energy sources, like
solar power and wind energy
Nuclear Power
The rule will offer up incentives for building or upgrading
nuclear power plants
Cap-and-Trade
The rule encourages states to use a cap-and-trade program,
and includes an option of interstate cap-and-trade
Lawyers
A legal battle over the rule will drag on for years and
require participation from lawyers of both sides
Losers
Purple State Senators Facing Tough Elections
Candidates facing tough elections will have to make
decisions that could potentially alienate one side of the
battle
Natural Gas
The rule projects that power from natural gas will be
identical to business-as-usual scenario, due to incentives
from zero-emission sources
Coal
The rule is likely to trigger even more coal-plant
shutdowns, reducing demand for coal
Carbon Capture and Storage
The new rule will not rely on carbon capture as much as
what was expected in the previous draft of the rule
Note
The Environmental Protection Agency’s Clean Power Plan has the power to change the American energy landscape. Renewables will
benefit from the rule, while the coal industry will suffer.
Source: Clare Foran and Jason Plautz, “Winners and Losers in President Obama’s Global Warming Rule,” National Journal, August 2, 2015.
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Questions Still Surround the Clean Power Plan
Unanswered Questions on the Clean Power Plan
Unanswered Questions
Why It’s Important
How will the Clean Power Plan hold up in
court?
Legal challenges could decide if the plan is
successful or not. The rule will probably end up
in the appellate courts or the Supreme Court
How will the EPA decide on the emission
reduction goals for Alaska and Hawaii?
Since Hawaii and Alaska are not on the major
grid systems, their emission reduction goals have
yet to calculated.
What will the EPA’s federal plan look like for
states that refuse to submit a plan?
The EPA has to decide between two versions of
the federal cap-and-trade program that will
states that refuse to submit plans.
How will the next President handle the Clean
Power Plan?
The next president will oversee the approval
process of the state plans.
What will the U.S. energy mix look like in 2030?
Because the plan focuses on emissions rather
than the energy mix, this question will be
answered once states submit plans.
Note
The rule has the potential to change the U.S. electric industry, but questions must be answered to better predict the impact of the plan.
Source: Brad Plumer, “How Obama’s Clean Power Plan actually works – a Step-by-Step Guide.” August 4, 2015; David Roberts, “What Impact Will Obama’s Clean Power Plan Have? It Depends,” 7
August 3, 2015.
Appendix
Reduction Emission Goals are Calculated Using a Formula
Alternating Current Power Grids or “Interconnections” in the U.S.
WA
Recommendations and
detected threats
ND
MT
OR
MN
ID
SD
NV
MI
PA
IA
NE
UT
IL
CO
CA
KS
AZ
NM
OK
TX
TX
(
% of Coal
Power Plants
in the state
)(
)+ (
WV
VA
KY
NJ
DE
MD
NC
TN
AR
Eastern
Interconnection
SC
AL
GA
LA
Texas
Interconnection
EPA Constant
for one of the
grid regions
OH
IN
MO
MS
AK
NH
MA
CT RI
NY
WI
WY
Western
Interconnection
ME
VT
FL
)(
% of Natural Gas
Power Plants in
the state
EPA Constant
for one of the
grid regions
)
= State’s Emission
Reduction Goal
Analysis
•The Environmental Protection Agency’s Clean Power Plan uses a formula to calculate the emission reduction goals for each state.
•The constants in the formula differ based on the state’s grid region: Eastern Interconnection, Western Interconnection, or Texas
Interconnection.
Source: U.S. Department of Energy, “Learn More About Interconnections,” 2015; Brad Plumer, “How Obama’s Clean Power Plan Actually Works – a Step-by-Step Guide,” Vox, August 4,
2015.
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