Transcript Abel Tomlinson

Population and the Environment
Arithmetic vs. geometric growth
• Arithmetic growth
• 1, 2, 3, 4, 5…
• Geometric growth
(exponential)
• 2, 4, 8, 16, 32…
(Cunningham et. al: Environmental Science: A Global Concern)
Population growth
• 2 to 6,600,000,000
last century
• 1B/decade
100M/year
300K/day
• 1 NYC/month
• 296B in 150 years!
(Cunningham et. al: Environmental Science: A Global Concern)
Carrying capacity
• Overshoot
• Dieback “crash”
• Increase w/ technology,
but sustainable?
• What is Earth’s
sustainable CC?
(Cunningham et. al: Environmental Science: A Global Concern)
Fertility rates (replacement is 2.1)
(Rubenstein: Introduction to Human Geography)
Questions to think about
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Why are we growing so fast?
Why should we be concerned?
People are good aren’t we?
How does population affect the environment?
What needs to be done?
(Pojman: Population: General Considerations)
Growth causes
• Higher fertility rate & lower death rate
• Industrial Revolution
• Fossil fuel & combustion engine
• Agricultural advances
• Fertilizer, irrigation & genetics
• Medical, health & sanitation revolution
• Vaccines, antibiotics, nutrition, sewage, cleaner water, etc.
• Socioeconomic, religious & primal instinct factors
(Newton and Dillingham: The Human Family Grows: Population as a Problem)
Malthus vs. Condorcet
• Geometric pop. growth
• Arithmetic subsistence
growth
• Overshoot CC
• Starvation, disease
& resource wars
• Advance in technology =
more improvement
• Moral advancement
• Women's rights
(Pojman: Population and the Environment)
Optimist
• More people = more brains = more progress
• Healthcare, economic opportunity & technology
• Creative resources are infinite
(Newton and Dillingham: The Human Family Grows: Population as a Problem)
Pessimist
• More people = more pollution & global warming
• Irreplaceable resources
• Air, water, soil, species, etc.
• Agricultural & economic collapse
• Creative resources aren’t infinite
• Brains like Einstein or Mozart are very rare
• Geniuses need education & food too
(Newton and Dillingham: The Human Family Grows: Population as a Problem)
Current consequences
• Water depletion &
pollution (33%)
• Soil degradation (43%)
• Deforestation
• Biodiversity
• Extinction (27,000/ yr.)
• Famines
• Unemployment
• 2B malnourished (½
children)
• Resource depletion
• US oil: 15 yrs
• World oil: 50 yrs
(Newton and Dillingham: The Human Family Grows: Population as a Problem)
Overcrowding stress
• Intense competition
• Psychological, physical and behavioral changes
• Weakened immunity, aggression, cannibalism,
arteriosclerosis and increased mortality
• Symptoms include abnormal adrenal glands &
deterioration of circulatory system, kidney and
liver
(Cunningham et. al: Environmental Science: A Global Concern)
Women and population
• Historically suppressed &
• Islam ”Men are above women
regarded as inferior
because Allah has given the one
superiority above the other”
• Men & religion control
reproductive rights, education • Confucius ”one hundred girls are
and career opportunity
not worth one boy”
• No independence
• Hinduism ”A woman must never
enjoy independence”
• Christianity ”The women shall be
vassals to their men who are their
masters”
Family planning
• 97% of growth in poor
nations with little access
to reproductive services
• AID found many women
want to limit pregnancies
• Funding cuts and “gag
rule”
(Cunningham et. al: Environmental Science: A Global Concern)
Consumption and the environment
• I = PAT
• Hunter gatherer
• 2,500 calories
• Modern American
• 186,000 calories
• Equivalent to sperm whale
• US most overpopulated in this context
• Rich vs. poor nations
(Pojman: Population General Considerations )
Disproportionate consumption
• US has 4.5% pop.
• Use 33% of all resources
• Produce 75% toxic waste
& 33% total waste
• Produce the most
greenhouse emissions
• Waste 200,000T edible
food/d
• Eat 200B extra calories/d
(feed 80 million)
• 1/3+ overweight & spend
$30B/yr on diets
• Justifiable?
(Pojman: Population General Considerations)
Death context
• 3,200 died tragically on 911
• Relatively unpreventable
• Over $5 billion in aid
• 33,000 children die/d unnecessarily from
malnutrition and poverty-related disease
• Easily preventable
• 15-25 cents/d would save the majority
• Political & religious authorities moral and pro-life?
(Pojman: Hunger, Duty, and Ecology: On What We Owe Starving Humans)
Consumption of meat
• Morality
• Death of animals & people
• 13 lbs. grain/ lb. meat
• 22MT seeds produced in
US, 20MT fed to livestock
• 90% net loss 14 MT
protein
• Health
• Consumption increases risk
of degenerative diseases
• Heart disease, obesity,
diabetes & cancer
• Fat deposits in arteries of
typical US child by age 3 &
70% by age 12
• Greed & God?
(Pojman: Hunger, Duty, and Ecology: On What We Owe Starving Humans)
Consumption solutions
• Progressive policies
• Simple
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Reduce consumption
Recycle waste
Eat less meat
Buy used stuff
Don’t waste
• Advanced
• Less children
• Invest in sustainable
businesses
• Consider impact of
decisions and actions
• Refocus reality away from
material happiness
Population solutions
• Halt & reverse growth to sustainable level
• Serious political & religious debate and reform
• Socioeconomic empowerment
• Educational & employment opportunities
• Social security systems
• Family planning services
• Environmentally sustainable development
(Newton and Dillingham: The Human Family Grows: Population as a Problem)
Easter Island history
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Initially lush forest, fertile
soil & abundant wildlife
Overpopulation
Deforestation
Soil & water depletion
Extinction of wildlife
Chaos and warfare
Cannibalism reduced
population by 90%
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Why didn’t they control
their population?
Why didn’t they conserve
their resources?
Will we follow the same
course?
Should we be optimists,
pessimists or both?
(Cunningham et. al: Environmental Science: A Global Concern)
Henry Kendall of MIT- ”If we don’t
control the population with justice,
humanity, and mercy, it will be done
for us by nature-brutally.”
HIV/AIDS
(Rubenstein: Introduction to Human Geography)
Mexican immigration
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Destabilize employment and economy?
Overcrowding
Higher resource and environmental pressures
More native blood = more right to land &
resources?
Religious leaders
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Hindu god Rama: two daughters
Buddha: one son
Jainism prophet Mahavira: one daughter
Confucius: one son
Taoism founder Loa-tzu: no children
Moses: two sons
Jesus Christ: no children
Islamic prophet Mohammed: one daughter