Transcript Setting the World Stage

Setting the
World Stage
2Lt Baldwin
2Lt Carroll
2Lt Devries
2Lt Elliott
2Lt Krug
2Lt Mealey
2Lt Moore
2Lt Pochron
2Lt Wright
Curriculum Area Manager—Warfare Studies/International Security Studies
What is our context?
 Three competing ideologies
 Fascism
 Communism
 Democracy
 If democracy remains as the
predominant ideology,…
why do extremism, uncertainty, and
violence still flourish?
Overview

Religious and Ethnic Factors
 Religious Conflicts
 Ethnic Conflicts
 Transnational Issues
 Globalization
 North vs South
 Global War on Terror (GWOT)
What holds
people together?
 More than merely national titles
 Often based in cultural roots
 Ethnicity
 Religion
How do each of these factors relate to conflict?
Ethnic Conflicts
Definitions:
 Ethnic cleansing: Expulsion of an
“undesirable” population from a given territory
due to religion, ethnicity, political, strategic, or
ideological factors
 Genocide: Deliberate and systematic
destruction of a group of people because of
their ethnicity, nationality, religion, or race
Intent differentiates ethnic cleansing (a desire to create ethnic
homogeneity) from genocide (primary goal is the destruction of a certain
group of people).
Ethnic Cleansing and
Genocide: Not Just a
Historical Problem
Religious Conflicts
 How has religion become the crucible for violence?
 Belief of belonging to a chosen people
 Belief in aggressive/forced evangelism
 Religion as symbolic structure of conflict
 Often, religion becomes the vehicle for the expression
of deeply and widely held social aspirations
 Religion can become the invoked ideology or “…social
cleavage along which other struggles become
mapped”
 Example: Sunni-Shia conflict in Iraq—Political or
religious struggle??
Connecting the
Dots
 What’s the connection between religion
and conflict?
 What’s the connection between ethnicity
and conflict?
Both of these aspects of
culture can unite and divide!
So, what happens when a culture is faced
with outside influences?
Globalization
Definitions:
 “[The] integration of markets, nation-states, and
technologies…enabling individuals, corporations
and nation-states to reach around the world farther,
faster, deeper…than ever before…”
 “The compression of the world and the
intensification of consciousness of the world as a
whole…concrete global interdependence...”
Bottom line: Globalization is a widening, deepening, and
speeding up of interconnectedness in all aspects of
contemporary social life from the cultural to the criminal, the
financial to the spiritual.
Dimensions of Globalization


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
Economic
Environmental
Cultural
Political
Each can be analyzed separately, but they
often have powerful interconnections
But is globalization good or bad?
Globalization

Many view all globalization as pro-American

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“Rogues, Renegades, and Outlaws”


Fear the dominance of Western ideas,
culture, institutions, and power
Blame United States for their
problems—easy way to divert attention
from actual cause of problems
“Have-nots”

Poverty makes them vulnerable to extremism
Our adversaries see emerging global trends
as threatening their traditions and way of life
Globalization

Our adversaries believe they must derail the
new emerging world order or be
run over by it

View United States as leader in shaping this

Can’t match our political, economic,
military, and cultural power

Resort to asymmetric approaches

Benefit from “ungoverned spaces” (i.e.,
Western Pakistan, Indonesia, Africa, etc.)
North vs South
 The Cold War/East-West conflict is gone,
replaced by a “North-South Estrangement”
 Economic rift between the “Haves” (North)
and the “Have-Nots” (South) widens
 Consider:
 At least 80% of humanity live on less than
$10/day
 Almost half the world—over 3 billion
people—live on less than $2.50/day
North vs South
 Consider:
 More than 2 billion children in the world…
Nearly half live in poverty, and most lack
adequate shelter, potable water,
and health services
 Global poverty trends improving, but subSaharan Africa poverty levels are rising
The horrors of extreme poverty lead to hopelessness, which
fuels extremism—and often, extremism breeds terrorism.
Global War on Terror
Militant extremism isn’t new…
“Those who study jihad will understand why Islam
wants to conquer the whole world. All the countries
conquered by Islam, or to be conquered in the future,
will be marked for everlasting salvation. Islam says:
Kill all the unbelievers just as they would kill you all!”
-- Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, 1942
“[The defense of the homeland]…is a means of
establishing the Divine authority within it so that it
becomes the headquarters for the movement of Islam,
which is then to be carried throughout the earth to the
whole of mankind, as the object of this religion is all
humanity and its sphere of action is the whole earth.”
-- Sayyid Qutb, 1955
GWOT - Who is the enemy?
 Various Islamic extremist groups (al Qaeda being the greatest threat
to the United States) :
 No state; no uniform; lives among the population
 Believes religion is under attack and calls upon Muslims to
defend Islam
 Vast numbers—Even support by 1% of the worldwide Muslim
population would equate to about 13 million “enemies”
 While we view the enemy’s beliefs as dangerously misguided….
 He is absolutely committed to his cause
 His religious ideology successfully attracts recruits
 He has a sufficient population base from which to protract the
conflict
How has the enemy become so dangerous?
Global War on Terror
 Al
Qaeda exemplifies the current
manifestation of violent extremists
 Al Zawahiri identified “three foundations”
of Al Qaeda’s political ideology:
Quran-based authority to govern
 Liberation of the homelands
 Liberation of the human being

This ideology is the foundation of
Al Qaeda’s overall plan
How Have Islamic Extremists Become
So Dangerous?
Perceived
Grievances
Information
Technology
 War in Iraq/Afghanistan
 Belief US is fighting a
war against Islam
 Palestine/Israel issue
 Detainee Abuse
 Internet
 News Media
 Satellite TV
 Cell Phones
Weapons
Proliferation
 IEDs
 Suicide Bombers
 Missiles
 Nuclear
 Chemical/Biological
The equation for danger:
Populace willing to
listen to and support
their message
+
Ability to transmit
message more
effectively
+
Media attention
given to mass
effects of attacks
An unprecedented ability to affect world events with
global ramifications
=
Al Qaeda’s Plan
“We are seeking to incite the Islamic Nation to
rise up to liberate its land and to conduct Jihad
for the sake of God.”—Osama bin Laden
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Objective 1: Expel American influence from Iraq and the
Arabian Peninsula
Objective 2: Remove secular governments within the region
Objective 3: Eliminate Israel and purge Jewish and Christian
influence
Objective 4: Expand the Muslim empire to historical
significance
“Iraq would serve as the base of a new Islamic caliphate to extend throughout the
Middle East, and which would threaten legitimate governments in Europe,
Africa, and Asia.” (Former SecDef Rumsfeld, 2005)
Global War on Terror
Implications of failure in this war are high

If radical Islamist groups
are successful, then…

US global leadership is
damaged and our
enemy is emboldened

They have a resourcerich, safe haven

Failure to stop our
enemy now means a
larger conflict later,
and at an enormous
cost!
The Good News
The enemy has vulnerabilities:
 Monolithic view of Islam underestimates cultural
and religious differences
 Majority of Muslims don’t believe in the Islamic
extremism that groups like Al Qaeda profess
 Repressive Taliban-like regimes unappealing to
most Muslims
 No military capability to expand their fight
beyond terrorist tactics
Understanding these vulnerabilities will put us in a better
position to win the Global War on Terror
Setting the
World Stage
Questions?
Summary

Religious and Ethnic Factors
 Religious Conflicts
 Ethnic Conflicts
 Transnational Issues
 Globalization
 North vs South
 Global War on Terror (GWOT)