Transcript Setting the World Stage - University of South Florida

Setting the World Stage
The Twentieth Century
• Three competing ideologies
– Communism
– Fascism
– Democracy
 Democracy alone remains the predominant
ideology…
… But extremism, uncertainty, and violence still flourish!
Overview
• Transnational Issues
– Globalization
– North vs. South
– Global War on Terror (GWOT)
• Religious and Ethnic Factors
– Religious Conflicts
– Ethnic Conflicts
Globalization
“The Post Cold War period ended on 11 September. The
next decade or so may well be defined by ‘the struggle
over globalization.’ Values and concepts long
championed by the United States and the West… are
being carried forward on the tide of globalization:
money, people, information, technology, ideas, goods
and services moving around the globe at higher speeds
and with fewer restrictions.”
– Vice Admiral Thomas R. Wilson, USN,
Former Director, Defense Intelligence Agency
Globalization
Definitions:
• “[The] integration of markets, nation-states, and
technologies…enabling individuals, corporations and
nation-states to reach around the world farther, faster,
deeper…than ever before…”
• “The compression of the world and the intensification
of consciousness of the world as a whole…concrete
global interdependence...”
Bottom line: Globalization is a widening, deepening and speeding
up of interconnectedness in all aspects of contemporary social life
from the cultural to the criminal, the financial to the spiritual.
Dimensions of Globalization
•
•
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•
Economic
Environmental
Cultural
Political
Each can be analyzed separately, but
they often have powerful
interconnections
Globalization
• New Threat Paradigm
– Traditional state-oriented model necessary but
not sufficient
– International boundaries less restrictive
– Networks transcending international borders
pose great threats to our national interests,
security, and homeland
Globalization
• Many view all globalization as Pro-United States
– Fear the dominance of Western ideas, culture, institutions,
and power
• “Rogues, Renegades, and Outlaws”
– Blame United States for their problems—easy way to
divert attention
• “Have-nots”
– Poverty makes them vulnerable to extremism
Our adversaries see emerging global trends as threatening their
traditions and way of life.
Globalization
• Our adversaries believe they must derail the
new emerging world order or be taken over
by it
– View United States as leader in shaping this
– Can’t match our political, economic, military, and
cultural power
– Resort to asymmetric approaches
– Benefit from “ungoverned spaces” (i.e. Western
Pakistan, Indonesia, Africa, etc.)
North vs. South
• The Cold War/East-West conflict is gone,
replaced by a “North-South Estrangement”
• Economic rift between the “Haves” (North)
and the “Have-Nots” (South) widens
• Consider:
– 1.5 billion live on less than $2 a day
– 40+% of the world’s population faces the reality or
threat of extreme poverty
North vs. South
• Consider: In 2005, 2.2 billion children in the
world… Nearly half live in poverty, and most
lack adequate shelter, potable water, and health
services
• Global poverty trends improving, but SubSaharan Africa poverty levels rising
The horrors of extreme poverty lead to hopelessness, which fuels
extremism; and often, extremism leads to terrorism.
Global War on Terror
Militant extremism isn’t new…
“Those who study jihad will understand why Islam
wants to conquer the whole world. All the countries
conquered by Islam or to be conquered in the future
will be marked for everlasting salvation. Islam says:
Kill all the unbelievers just as they would kill you all!”
-- Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, 1942
“[The defense of the homeland] … is a means of
establishing the Divine authority within it so that it
becomes the headquarters for the movement of Islam,
which is then to be carried throughout the earth to the
whole of mankind, as the object of this religion is all
humanity and its sphere of action is the whole earth.”
-- Sayyid Qutb, 1955
GWOT – Who is the Enemy?
• The enemy consists of various extremist Islamic groups that
espouse the use of violence to achieve their ideological aims –
al Qaeda being the greatest threat to the US homeland today.
Characteristics are:
– No state, no uniform, lives among the population
– Believes religion is under attack and calls upon Muslims to defend Islam
– Even support by 1% of the Muslim population would equate to about 13
million “enemies”
• While we view his beliefs as dangerously misguided….
– He is absolutely committed to his cause
– His religious ideology successfully attracts recruits
– He has a sufficient population base from which to protract the conflict
How has the enemy become so dangerous?
Global War on Terror
Weapons
Proliferation
 IEDs
 Suicide Bombers
 Missiles
 Nuclear
 Chemical/Biological
Mass effects capture
media attention
Information
Technology
 Internet
 News Media
 Satellite T.V.
 Cell Phones
Ability to transmit
message
Perceived
Grievances
 War in Iraq / Afghanistan
 Belief USA is fighting a
war against Islam
 Palestine, Israel
 Detainee Abuse
Populace that listens and
supports their message
Increasing ambitions coupled with increasing capabilities give extremists
an unprecedented ability to affect world events with global ramifications.
Global War on Terror
• Al Qaeda exemplifies the current
manifestation of violent extremists
• Al Zawahiri identified “three foundations” of
Al Qaeda’s political ideology:
– Quran-based authority to govern
– Liberation of the homelands
– Liberation of the human being
So how does this fit into Al Qaeda’s objectives??
Al Qaeda’s Plan
“We are seeking to incite the Islamic Nation to
rise up to liberate its land and to conduct Jihad
for the sake of God.” -- Osama bin Laden
 Objective 1: Expel American influence from Iraq and the
Arabian Peninsula
 Objective 2: Remove secular governments within region
 Objective 3: Eliminate Israel, and purge Jewish and
Christian influence
 Objective 4: Expand the Muslim empire to
historical significance
“Iraq would serve as the base of a new Islamic caliphate to extend throughout
the Middle East, and which would threaten legitimate governments in Europe,
Africa and Asia.” (SecDef Rumsfeld, 2005)
Objective 1: Expel America and
Establish an Islamic Authority in Iraq
Iraq has become the focus of the enemy’s effort. If they win in
Iraq, they have a base from which to expand their terror…
Attacks against the
West Continue
IF America departs Iraq prior to sufficient Iraqi capacity
to provide security:
• Insurgents step up attacks against the government
and make religious claims for regime change.
• Extremists overthrow the democratic government,
replacing it with a Taliban-like regime.
• UN issues a resolution, but does not commit to
action…US doesn’t re-engage in Iraq.
“The whole world is watching
this war and the two
adversaries… [Iraq] has a very
rare opportunity to come out
of the subservience and
enslavement to the West...”
– Osama bin Laden (2004)
Objective 2: Remove Secular Governments,
Replace with Islamic Theocracies
Attacks against the
West continue
Would Israel
join the conflict?
• Extremists export their message and terrorist
acts throughout the Middle East.
• Violence and extremist ideology undermine
moderate governments of Jordan, Syria, Saudi
Arabia, Kuwait and Egypt.
• Moderate governments collapse, replaced by
Taliban-like regimes.
• Baghdad becomes the capital of the Caliphate.
Would the U.S.
re-enter the conflict?
The revived Caliphate
now turns its attention
to the destruction of
Israel…
Objective 3: Destruction of Israel
Might nuclear
weapons be
employed?
Attacks against
the West continue
At what point does
the U.S. return
to Middle East?
Allies?
•
•
•
•
Attacks against Israel intensify.
United Nations issues resolution to stand down.
Caliphate gains support within the Muslim world…
Caliphate attacks Israel
Extremists now poised to reestablish the historical
Caliphate
Objective 4: Re-Establish the
Historical Caliphate
• The Caliphate calls for an uprising within the
remaining Islamic states to join the restoration.
• Remaining Islamic states collapse from within.
In 900 C.E., the
Caliphate
included most of
present day Spain
and portions of
France and Italy.
By 1500 C.E., the
expanse of the
Caliphate
included most of
Africa, the Middle
East, much of SW
Asia, and SE
Europe.
Global War on Terror
• The United States cannot be defeated militarily. Our
enemy knows this, but consider:
– The world’s most dangerous people potentially have some of the
world’s most dangerous weapons– nuclear, chemical, or biological
weapons– and every inclination to employ them
– Terror attacks can weaken global economy
– Continued casualties may weaken national resolve and even affect
our elections
– Our traditional allies prefer accommodation
• A “clash of civilizations” or …
–
–
–
–
Force our economy into a recession? Depression?
Create political pressure for isolationism?
Deter us from necessary action?
Force us to reach accommodation… Peace in our time?
Global War on Terror
 What are the enemy’s vulnerabilities?
• Majority of Muslims don’t believe in the Islamic
extremism groups like Al Qaeda profess
• Monolithic view of Islam underestimates cultural
and religious differences
• Repressive Taliban-like regimes unappealing to most
Muslims
• No military capability to expand their fight beyond
terrorist tactics
Radical Islamic groups have shown themselves to be enemies of the West, and
of the very people they claim to support—Iraq, Islam, and humanity.
Global War on Terror
• Implications of failure in this war are high:
– If the insurgency overthrows the Iraqi government,
US global leadership is damaged, emboldening our
enemy, who then have a resource rich safe haven
• Failure to stop our enemy now means a larger
conflict later—at enormous costs!
• Much of the worlds energy resources held hostage
• Millions of people repressed and isolated from growth
and prosperity
• Extremists with resources to continue attacks
• Countries isolated from a global trading economy
• Other religious beliefs repressed
• American security and national interests jeopardized
Religious Conflicts
• Religion can be a powerful force in
warfare by reinforcing ethnicity in making
a conflict more intractable and cruel
• Not usually the only reason for conflict,
but frequently plays a pivotal role (i.e.,
Shia-Sunni conflict)
– Share fundamental beliefs/practices
– Difference originally political, involving who
should lead after Muhammad’s death
Religious Conflicts
• Despite religious conflicts, many similarities
exist between Christianity, Judaism, and Islam…
– Are monotheistic (believe in one god)
– Descendents of Abraham
– Accept concept of sin, the value of prayer, and
necessity of repentance
– Find meaning in life through deep, personal
relationship with God
“The problem to be faced is how to combine loyalty to one’s own tradition with
reverence for different traditions.” – Abraham Joshua Heschel
Religious Conflicts
• How has religion become the crucible
for violence?
– Belief of belonging to a chosen people
– Belief in aggressive missionarism
– Religion as symbolic structure of conflict
• Religion can become the invoked ideology or
“social cleavage along which other struggles
become mapped”
– Example: Sunni-Shia conflict in Iraq– Political
struggle or spiritual??
Religion may be the vehicle for the expression of deeply and
Ethnic Conflicts
• Ethnic groups usually united by common cultural,
behavioral, or religious practices
• Ethnicity can be a powerful unifier…or a source of
great conflict:
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Christian Armenians in Turkey
Stalin’s purges and forced famine
Holocaust
Khmer Rouge
Rwandan genocide
Bosnia-Herzegovina
Sudan
Ethnic Conflicts
• Definitions:
– Ethnic cleansing: Expulsion of an “undesirable”
population from a given territory due to religion,
ethnicity, political, strategic or ideological factors
– Genocide: Deliberate and systematic destruction of
a group of people because of their ethnicity,
nationality, religion, or race
Intent differentiates ethnic cleansing (a desire to create an
ethnically homogeneity) from genocide (primary goal is the
destruction of a certain group of people).
Ethnic Conflicts
• According to the UN Commission of Experts, “ethnic
cleansing” covers a host of criminal offenses, including:
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Use of human shields
Mass murder
Mistreatment of civilian prisoners
Destruction of cultural property
• Individuals enabling “ethnic cleansing” face criminal
prosecution for crimes against humanity, etc.
Summary
• Transnational Issues
– Globalization
– North vs. South
– Global War on Terror (GWOT)
• Religious and Ethnic Factors
– Religious Conflicts
– Ethnic Conflicts
Questions?