Transcript Politics of the Middle East

Politics of the Middle East
Islamic International Relations
An Islamic Theory?
• J. Harris Proctor in Islam and International
Relations (1965), the notion that Islam could be
influential upon international affairs and should
therefore be an independent subject of study was
clearly invalid
• Buzan, Why is there no non-Western IR theory?
• Orthodox IR and Islamic IR
• religion must be taken into account in
International Relations theorising without
rejecting previous theories or disregarding
research methods developed in the 20th Century
• al siyasi al Islami (Islamic political order)
• Extra-rational agency, Umma, Assabiya,
• laws governing society are primarily
normative as opposed to prescriptive
• Abdul Hamid Abu Sulayman opened the door
for an exclusively Islamic concept of the
international in, Towards an Islamic Theory of
International Relations
Functions of Theory
• Theories disagree on what constitutes the state
and its sovereignty
• Non-Westphalian Approach: Diminished value of
the Nation-State,
• Two Concepts of The State and Sovereignty
– 1) Umma, One indivisible community bound through a
Assabiya,
– 2) Inside/ Outside
• Dar al Harb (Realm of War, The Other)
• Dar al Islam (Realm of Islam)
• Ontology (What you know)
• All theories accept Tawhid (oneness of God)
• Theories differ on methodology
– Quran (Word of God dictated to Muhammad)
– Sunna (Sayings and deeds of the Prophet)
– Fiqh ( Islamic Juris-prudence 5 Sunni, 3 Shi’ite)
Ijtihad (personal judgment)
Islamic IR Schools
• Classical (Traditional)
• Reformist (Non-Traditional)
• Revolutionary (Salafi/Jihadi)
Classical Approach and the 1st Debate
• Islam’s formative period, Origins 7th C to
Conquest
• Related to Classical Hobbesian Realism
• Persistent existential struggle
• Literalist interpretation: Divine sources require
no human intervention
• Defensive and Offensive Jihad (the lesser)
• Perpetual Dar al Harb/ Dar al Islam conflict
Reformists and the 2nd Debate
• 19th C Salafism (learning from the rightly guided
caliphs)
• Jamal al Din al Afghani
• Emerged as a result of Islamic decline
• Return to the Salafs. Mediation between the
rejectionists and the modernists
• Related to the Lockean tradition of cautious
cooperation
• Can Islam support both universalism and transnationalism?
Revisions
• Revised Dar al Harb/ Dar al Islam: alternate inter-subjective
worlds coexisting without one asserting its hegemony upon
the other through a superior assabiya
• Dar al Ahd (realm of treaties)
• The Umma is a meta-physical concept, Boundaries less
contraining
• Ijtihad
• Closing of the gates 10th C
• Traditionalist judgment on matters without the consent of
the ulema is heretical
• Reformist: It is necessary to content with the modern world
Salafi Jihadism, 3rd Debate
• Theoretical paradigms affected by world events,
WW1, end of the Caliphate 3rd Debate
• Blends Classical Hyper-realism and the approach
to Jihad with ijtihad
• Reformist use ijtihad to engage with modernity
• SJ use ijtihad as a tool to bypass the ulema
• Sayid Qutb, Hassan al-Banna , Maulana Maududi
• Qutb asserted that Muslims have lost their way
and Islam has been altered to the point of only
existing in the minds of the revolutionaries
• Conflict, then, is not just a matter of survival
but the only tool for achieving peace, as there
can be no peace without a global Islamic
political order
• Early Muslim Brotherhood
Assassination of Sadat, 4th Debate
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Crackdown on Islamist groups and Islamic institutions
marginalization, subjugation, radicalization
Muslim Brotherhood disavow violent action
More concentration on traditional politics and social
services
• Exodus to Afghanistan, the Afghan Arabs
• Ayman al Zawahiri, Osama bin Laden, Abdullah Azzam
Politics of the Middle East
Iranian Islamic Revolution 1979
• Protest begin October 1977
• Pahlavi fled to exile January 1979 Ayatollah
Khomeini returned from exile
• April 1, 1979 Islamic Republic Declared
Causes
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Conservative, Liberal, Religious, Secular
Increasing westernization and secularization
Cultural pollution
Overambitious economic reforms
Economic decline following 1973 oil boom
Oppressive extravagant regime
SAVAK
Underestimation of the Khomeinist movement
White Revolution
• Advertised as implementing Western reforms
• Aimed to strengthen the upper classes who supprted
the Monarchy, Gain support of the peasantry Weaken
middle class influence
• 1963national referendum: 5,598,711 for 4,115 against
• Land Reformd: 90% of sharecropeers become land
owners
• Privatisation of Government industry
• Free Education, Extened Health Services, Welfare,
Improve Literacy Rates, Women’s Suffrage, Housing
Equality, Nationalisation for Forest Land,, Price
Stabalisation
Effects
• Industrial growth
• Secondary Education
370,000 to 741,000
• College Education 24,885 to
145,210
• Literacy 26% to 42%
• Marriage age raised to 15,
Women can vote, hold
public office, serve as
judges and lawyers
• The intelligentsia and the
urban working class grew 4X
in population
• Disaffected by the
outlawing of political
parties, associations, unions
and independent
newspapers
• Land Reform: large numbers
of independent farmers and
landless laborers disaffected
by corruption.
• Most unable to buy enough
land to sustain farming
SAVAK
• Sazeman-e Ettelat va
Amniyat-e Keshvar,
Organization of Intelligence
and National Security)
• Established 1957 with CIA
assistance
• had the power to censor
the media, screen
applicants for government
jobs, use all means
necessary including torture
to hunt down dissidents
• Rebranded SAVAMA
The Build Up 1970 - 1977
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Pahlavi fanily 20 Billion in Oil wealth
Influx of foreign skilled workers
Failure of trickle down economics
Increased gap between rich and poor
1977 Austerity measures to fight inflation
Anti-profiteering campaign
Death of Ali Shariati by SAVAK (Red Shi’ism)
Monarchs vs Ulema
• 1935 Pahlavi’s father outlawed Islamic dress
and replaced sharia with Western law
• Ulema loss influence over education and
family law
• Clerical institutions dependent on rents which
land reform severely reduced
• Rise of Khoemeini
• Arrested 1963 sparking protests, 1964 exiled
for 15 years
Ayatollah Ruhollah Mostafavi Moosavi
Khomeini
• 24 September 1902 – 3 June
1989
• Educated in Arak and Qom
• Lecturer at Qom and Najaf
• importance of religion to
practical social and political
issues of the day
• "virtual face of Islam in
Western popular culture"
Revolutionary Ideology
• Jalal Al-e Ahmed, Gharbzadegi (Westoxification)
• velayat e faqih government should be run in accordance
with traditional sharia, for this to happen a leading jurist
must provide political "guardianship“
• "more necessary even than prayer and fasting“
• Quietist Shi’ism vs Activist Shi’ism
• Martyrdom
• "export of revolution does not mean interfering in other
nation's affairs“ but "answering their questions about
knowing God“
• "Establishing the Islamic state world-wide belong to the
great goals of the revolution."
• January 1978 publication of Red and Black
Imperialism. Protests in Qom
• Araba’een, Feb 18, March 29, May 10
• Reforms calm protest: relaxed censorship, dismiss
SAVAK officials, protestester treated leanently,
elections promised
• Cinema Rex Fire 422 killed, Protest renewed
• Further concessions: Rastakhiz Party abolished ,
all parties legalizedm political prisoners released,
increased freedom of expression, curtailed
SAVAK's authority, closed down casinos and
nightclubs, abolished the imperial calendar
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Sept 4, Eid Protests
Marshall Law
Black Friday 8 Sept 1978, 89 Protesters killed
Government ceases significant intervention
Shah pressures Iraq to expel Khomeini
Moves to France
Shah "this revolution cannot but be supported
by me, the king of Iran“
• Military stands down
• Protests Continue: Secularist
and Leftist ignored Khomeini’s
Islamist approach, believed
him only a figurehead
• ‘The Plan’, civilian
government, vacation,
referendum
• 16 January, 1979 Shahpour
Bakhtiar appointed PM, Shah
flees to Egypt
• Bakhtiar seen as Shah puppet
Khomeini Returns
• Feb 1, Khomeini in Tehran
• 'I shall kick their teeth in. I
appoint the government in
support of this nation‘
• "Decade of Fajr."
• Supreme Military Council
"neutral”
• Feb 11, Victory Day
Conclusion
• 1983, Revolution
consolidated
• 1978 – 79, 2700
protesters killed
• 1981 – 85, 8000 executed
by revolutionary courts
• 1979 Hostage crisis
• End of relations with US
• Neither East nor West
• Middle East Cold War
• Iran, Syria, Hezbollah vs
Egypt, Jordan, Gulf States
Politics of the Middle East
The Global Jihad
Join The Caravan
• Muhammad abd al-Salam Faraj,
Jamaat al-Jihad
• Abdullah Azzam, Godfather of Jihad
• Afghan Arabs organiser
• Maktab al-Khidamat
• “Jihad and the rifle alone. No
conferences, no dialogue, no
negotiations”
Causation
• Existing explanations focus either on very specific
issues of the modern era or timeless
metanarratives
• Poverty
• Authoritarian regimes
• US (Western) foreign policy
• The Jewish state
• Globalisation and modernity
• Culture and values
• Clash of Civilisations
The Rise and Fall of Political Islam
• 1924 End of the Caliphate
• Hassan al Banna, Sayid Qutb
• Failure of Arab Nationalism, the absence of a unification
narrative
• Grand Mosque Seizure, Luxor
• The Muslim Brotherhood, ‘God is our objective, the
• Quran is our constitution, the Prophet is our leader,
struggle is our way, and death for the sake of Allah is the
highest of our aspirations.’
• Quietening of the Islamists
• “Islamist movements have been in part secularized by the
political process, where political logic has trumped religious
logic”
• Hijra
Salafi Jihadism Ideology
• Fundamentalist/ decontextualised
• Salafism, Hijra, jihad,
jayhilliya,
• Taymiyya, Afghani,
Maududi, Qutb, Azzam,
Faraj, Salafism, jihad, Hijra
and jahiliya
• Ayman al Zawahiri Knights
Under the Prophets Banner
• Qutb The New Jahiliyya
• ‘everything around us is
jahiliya, people’s perceptions
and beliefs, habits and
customs, the sources of their
culture, arts, literature and
their laws and legislations.
Much of what we think of as
Islamic culture, Islamic
sources or Islamic philosophy,
is in fact jahiliya.’
Ijtihad
• Sura 2 verse 106
• ‘None of our revelations do we abrogate or cause
to be forgotten. But we substitute something
better or similar. Don’t you know that Allah has
power over all things.’
• Sura 16 verse 101
• ‘When we substitute one revelation for another
and Allah knows best what he reveals in stages.
They say you are but a forger, but most of them
do not understand.’
Quran 56: 15-26
• (They will be) on Thrones encrusted (with gold and
precious stones), Reclining on them, facing each other.
Round about them will (serve) youths of perpetual
(freshness), With goblets, (shining) beakers, and cups
(filled) out of clear-flowing fountains No after-ache will
they receive therefrom, nor will they suffer
intoxication: And with fruits, any that they may select
And the flesh of fowls, any that they may desire. And
(there will be) Companions with beautiful, big, and
lustrous eyes, Like unto Pearls well-guarded. A Reward
for the deeds of their past (life). Not frivolity will they
hear therein, nor any taint of ill,- Only the saying,
"Peace! Peace".
Al Qaeda (The Base)
• Founded 1988
• Computer Database containing
contacts of Afghan fighters
• Mujahedeen Myth
• 1992 Yemen, 1995 Riyadh, 1998
Kenya and Tanzania, 2001 US
• 1998 Fatwa
• 2001 merger with Egyptian Islamic
Jihad forming "Qaeda al-Jihad“
• Bin Laden the organiser
• Zawahiri the thinker
The Near and Far Enemy Debate
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Debate of the jihadist center of gravity
Near enemy (Arab regimes)
Far Enemy (hegemonic powers)
Structure vs Agent
The 20 year plan
– the Awakening (2000-2003) Provoke a war
– Opening Eyes (2004 – 2007) Become a global brand
and focus on Iraq
– (2007 - 2010) Focus on Israel, Syria, Turkey
– (2010 - 2013) Challenge US asymmetrically
Glocalization
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Franchising, The al Qaeda brand
Affiliates, Allies and Freelance Jihadists
Wedding local grievances to the global effort
“Think globally, act locally”
– Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula
– Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb
– Al Qaeda in Iraq (Now ISIS)
– Ansar al Sharia
– Al Shabaab
Unity, Legitimacy, Hegemony
• The termination of the caliphate followed by
the failure of pan-Islamism, pan-Arabism and
political Islam leaves a narrative void.
• Post WWII consolidation of international
system and norms
• Hegemonic willingness to maintain the
existing order
Waning Influence
• Increased isolation
and stagnation of al
Qaeda Central (AQC)
post 9-11
• Death of bin Laden
• Soft Power strategies
• New Generation
Jihadists
• Recruitment flow
from Europe
• Rise of ISIS
Down but not out
• Jihadist civil war Islamic State vs AQC
• Syrian conflict may determine the outcome
Politics of the Middle East
The War on Terror
September 11, 2001
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2996 Deaths
10 Billion infrastructure damage
Wars in Afghanistan and Iraq
2001 Letter to America
support of Israel, attacks in
Somalia, atrocities in Chechnya,
authoritarian regimes in the
Middle East, oppression in Kashmir
• The presence of U.S. troops in
Saudi Arabia
• sanctions against Iraq
• Hijackers, 15 Saudi, 2
Emiratis, 1 Jordan, 1 Egypt
• Flight 11 and 175 Boston to
La hit WTC
• Flight 77 DC to LA hit
Pentagon
• Flight 93 Newark to SF
crashed in Shanksville
• US airspace closed NATO
take up air border security
patrols
• “The Pet Goat”
The Hamburg Cell
• Khalid Sheikh Mohammed Architect of
9-11 plan 1996
• Formed 1998 by University Students in
Hamburg Germany
• Mohamed Atta, Marwan al-Shehhi
Ramzi bin al-Shibh
• Chance meeting with al Qaeda agent
• Training in Afghanistan, chosen for 911 mission
• Enroll in flight training schools in US
• The 20th hijacker
Ziad Jarrah
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Beirut
Wealthy, secular background
Aysel Şengün
"I did what I was supposed to
do" and "You ought to be very
proud, because it is an honor
and you will see the result and
everybody will be happy"
International Reaction
• Attacks denounced
• Ahmed Yassin, the spiritual
leader of Hamas, Yusuf alQaradawi, Taliban
• Candlelight vigils in Iran and
Pakistan
Domestic Reaction
• Mass of volunteers travel to NY
• “American Muslims utterly condemn the
vicious and cowardly acts of terrorism against
innocent civilians.”
• Falwell, "pagans, abortionists, feminists, the
gays and the lesbians. I point the finger in
their face and say 'you helped this happen”
• Increase in Hate Crimes
• Sheikh Temple in Wisconsin burned
Freedom or Security
• Department of Homeland Security
• Patriot Act
• Expanded law enforcement powers
related to search and seizure,
Increased power of financial
regulation, Increased border
security and immigration authority
• The Terrorism Narrative and US
foreign relations
• Politicalisation of Terrorism
• Who is a terrorist?
Afghanistan
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US demand Taliban give up UBL
NATO and allied invasion October 2001
Civilian deaths 19,013
Allied 14,859
Taliban 20,000 – 35,000
No significant peace established
Bilateral Security Agreement US combat troops
withdraw 2014, all US personnel withdraw 2016
Failed Plots
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The 2001 shoe bomb plot
Library Tower in LA,
2003 Brooklyn Bridge in New York City
2004 Financial buildings plot, IMF, World Bankm NYSE
2004 Columbus Shopping Mall Bombing
2006 Sears Tower 2007
Fort Dix attack 2007
JFK airport
New York Subway Bombing Plot
2010 Times Square car bombing attempt
Successful Plots
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2002 Bali
2003 Casablanca
2003 Istanbul
2004 Madrid train bombings.
2005 London bombings
2007 Algiers
2007 Glasgow International Airport
2009 Fort Hood , United States
2012 Toulouse and Montauban shootings in France
Benghazi Libya
Capture of Osama bin Laden
• Abbottabad Pakistan
• 1.3 Kilometers from Pakistan
Military Academy
• Abu Ahmed al-Kuwaiti,
• 2 May 2011
• SEAL Team 6, Stealth
helicopters
• 38 minutes on the ground
• Overseas Contingency