Transcript ARAB BAROMETER: SELECTED FINDINGS WAVE TWO (2011) …

ISLAM AND THE STRUGGLE FOR A POLITICAL FORMULA:
FINDINGS FROM THE 2010-2011 ARAB BAROMETER
ARAB BAROMETER: SELECTED
FINDINGS
WAVE TWO (2011) and WAVE ONE
(2006)
Mark Tessler
University of Michigan
Why Islam?
Arabs and Muslims often say that Westerners are obsessed with Islam,
believing that it breeds extremism and violence – the so-called Clash of
Civilizations thesis. But while Arabs and Muslims are correct to complain
that misinformation and stereotypes sometimes characterize Western
thinking about Islam, the place of religion in the governance of Arab
countries is in fact an important, and contested, issue in domestic Arab
politics – and now more than ever.
• Ali Gomaa, the Grand Mufti of Egypt: “Egypt’s revolution has swept away
decades of authoritarian rule but has also highlighted an issue that Egyptians
will grapple with as they consolidate their democracy: the role of religion in
political life.”
• Hamadi Jebali, Secretary General of Tunisia’s al-Nahda Party (and now
Tunisian prime minister): “What kind of Democracy for the New Tunisia:
Islamic or Secular?”
• Tariq Harb, Iraqi constitutional lawyer and media personality: “A central
element in the struggle to define Iraq’s emergent democracy is the question of
how “to balance religion and secularism.”
Arab Barometer:
Second Wave
Most surveys
used area
probability
sampling.
Data are
weighted by age
and education
when needed.
** Being
“corrected” and
not included in
present analysis.
Support for Islam
in Politics and Society
Men of religion should have influence over
government decisions
Strongly Agree
Agree
Disagree
Strongly Disagree
All Countriesa
Column Cumulative
Percent
Percent
11.5
11.5
31.3
42.8
42.3
85.1
14.9
100.0
Religion is a private matter and should be
separated from socio-political life
Strongly Disagree
Disagree
Agree
Strongly Agree
Column Cumulative
Percent
Percent
13.0
13.0
25.2
38.2
37.4
75.6
24.4
100.0
aNine countries, pooled analysis; weighted to adjust for sample size differences;
only Muslim respondents included.
Support for Islamic Influence by Country
Country
Jordan
Date of
Survey
Dec. 2010
Palestine
Dec. 2010
Sudan
Dec. 2010
Yemen
Feb. 2011
Iraq
Feb-Mar 2011
Algeria
Apr-May 2011
KSA
May-Jun 2011
Egypt
Jun-Jul 2011
Tunisia
Sep-Oct 2011
Men of religion should
have influence over
government decisions
Religion is a private
matter and should be
separated from sociopolitical life
(Str. Agr./Agr. Average 43%)
(Str. Dis./Dis. Average 38%)
46%
42%
57%
61%
47%
27%
39%
37%
25%
45%
48%
50%
50%
28%
25%
55%
21%
22%
Dark Green = Favorable toward Islamic influence by 9 or more points above average
Tan = Unfavorable toward Islamic influence by 9 or more points below average
Different Visions and Worldviews?
Men of religion
should have
influence over the
decisions of
government
Survey Item (% Strongly Agree/Agree)
Democracy may have problems but it is better
than any other form of government (82%)
Islam requires that in a Muslim country the
political rights of non-Muslims be inferior to
those of Muslims (28%)
A university education is more important for a
boy than a girl (27%)
On the whole, men make better political
leaders than women (76%)
The culture of the US and other Western
countries has many positive attributes (60%)
Despite negative US foreign policies, most
ordinary Americans are good people (56%)
Dark Green = difference of 9 or more
Religious practice is
a private matter
and should be
separated from
socio-political life
S. Agree/
Agree
(favors
Islamic
influence)
Disagree/ S.
Disagree
(not favor
Islamic
influence)
S. Agree/
Agree
(not favor
Islamic
influence)
Disagree/ S.
Disagree
(favors
Islamic
influence)
80%
83%
85%
77%
39%
20%
25%
34%
33%
22%
26%
28%
81%
72%
72%
82%
57%
63%
63%
56%
54%
58%
60%
52%
Accounting for Variance: Drivers and Pathways
Dependent Variable: Support for Islam in
Politics and Society (2-8 scale, 8 = more) support)
Selected Hypotheses: More Support Predicted If:
• Unfavorable Regime Evaluation
• Conservative Cultural Values
• Low Educational Level
Methodological Considerations
• Only Muslim respondents
• Pooled data and weighting
• OLS, holds other IVs constant
• Control variables (religiosity, demographics)
• Disaggregation by age (and sex)
• Compare regimes based on Islamic connection
Unfavorable Assessment
of Ruling Regime
Lower Support for
Gender Equality
Lower Level
of Education
Regime without Islamic Connection
All
Younger
Older
Respondents
Respondents
Respondents
.106**
-.006
.212**
(.032)
(.046)
(.044)
.308**
.309**
.309**
(.032)
(.046)
(.045)
-.099**
-.132**
-.107**
(.032)
(.048)
(.042)
Unfavorable Assessment
of Ruling Regime
Lower Support for
Gender Equality
Lower Level
of Education
Regime with Islamic Connectiona
All
Younger
Older
Respondents
Respondents
Respondents
-.245**
-.136
-.326**
(.047)
(.072)
(.062)
.168**
.270**
.088
(.046)
(.071)
(.064)
.108*
.048
.172**
(.050)
(.081)
(.060)
Regression coefficients; SE in parentheses; *p<.05, **p<.01
aKSA, Iraq, Sudan
Some Determinants (Predictors) of Attitudes toward Islam’s
Political and Societal Role: A Foundation for Discussion
H1. Unfavorable Regime Evaluation
• Unfavorable regime evaluation predicts to support for Islamic influence if country governed
by a regime without an Islamic connection, but only among older individuals (and only among
men)
• Unfavorable regime evaluation predicts to opposition to Islamic influence if country
governed by a regime with an Islamic connection, but again only among older individuals (of
both sexes)
H2. Lower Support for Gender Equality
• Lower support for gender equality predicts to support for Islamic influence regardless of
whether or not country is governed by a regime with an Islamic connection, but only among
younger individuals (and men) in countries governed by a regime with an Islamic connection
H3. Lower Level of Education
• Higher education predicts to support for Islamic influence if country governed by a regime
without an Islamic connection among both younger and older individuals (of both sexes)
• Lower education predicts to support for Islamic influence if country governed by a regime
with an Islamic connection, but only among older individuals (and only among men)
Countries governed by regime with an Islamic connection: KSA, Iraq, Sudan
Some Conclusions and Take-Aways
Publics Divided on Islam’s Political and Societal Role
• Overall, skewed toward limiting Islam’s political and societal influence
• Considerable variation across countries
• Opinion divided even in countries with more support for Islam’s influence
Worldviews Vary by Issue
• Substantial majorities support democracy, equality for nonMuslims, importance of education for girls
• Publics divided in views about American culture and people
• Some association between worldviews and views about Islam’s
influence
No “One-Size-Fits-All” Causal Story
• Political judgments, cultural predispositions, and personal experiences
all account for some of the variance in views about Islam’s influence
• Explanatory power influenced by character of governing regime
• Explanatory power also varies across demographic categories
Next Steps: Expanded and More Complex Analysis
•
Expanded database: more countries and time periods
•
Additional measures of dependent variable
•
Additional individual-level hypotheses and independent
variables: tolerance, economic situation, civic engagement
•
Separate (not pooled) analysis for each survey
•
Two-level analysis to identify conditioning effects of
country and temporal characteristics
•
Further reflection and investigation of pathways