Transcript Space Environment Forecasting for the Exploration Initiative with the

Agency Update
ILWS: History

Madhulika
Guhathakurta
NASAHeadquarters
Science Mission
Directorate
Heliophysics
Division
ILWS WG, Beijing,
China, August 27September 3, 2011
Overarching Principles
NASA Living with a Star Program
Targeted Research & Technology
Steering Committee
At the center of the solar system there is a
magnetic variable star, the Sun, that drives the
Earth and other Planets, and structures
interplanetary space itself .
All of NASA’s activities, all human endeavor,
are subjected to forces in this neighborhood.
Heliophysics: (aka Science of
NASA Living with a Star Program
Space
Weather
&
Climate)
Targeted
Research & Technology
Steering Committee
Understanding the Sun and its effects on the Earth and
the solar system.
1. This is a complex system with many different temporal
and spatial scales
2. The study of heliophysics involves three forces, and
their interactions: pressure, gravity, and magnetic fields.
3. The Sun is coupled to the planetary system and space
by radiation, charged particles, and magnetic fields.
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NASA Living with a Star Program
Targeted Research & Technology
Steering Committee
System of Systems Surveillance
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Heliophysics and Space Weather (SWx)
Anticipated NASA flt Systems 2012
 Heliophysics research provides Theory, Data, and Modeling development
at services to the national efforts in operational SWx.
 The five research missions most often utilized are ACE, SOHO, STEREO
(ahead and behind spacecraft) and SDO
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Heliophysics and Sun-Climate
galactic cosmic
rays
solar dynamo
solar energy output
0.0003 Wm-2
Xrays
EUV
radiation
energetic particles
electron aurora III
heliosphere
& IMF
0.06 Wm-2
thermosphere
ionosphere
magnetosphere
mesosphere & lower thermosphere
stratosphere & ozone
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comparable
to man-made
energy
energetic
particles
0.0000007 Wm-2
15.4 Wm-2
1366 Wm-2
UV
radiation
space weather
0.003 Wm-2
near UV
VIS
IR
radiation
solar
wind
climate
A very important part is the study of the connection between the regions and how one drives a response in another.
Heliophysics SIGNIFICANT ACCOMPLISHMENTS
And Upcoming Events
Living With a Star Program
• RBSP
- Pre-Environmental Review planned for Nov 18 2011
• Solar Probe Plus
- Completed MDR Readiness Review
- MDR planned for Oct 4-6, 2011
• Solar Orbiter Collaboration
- ESA completed spacecraft Systems Requirements Review with project &
SRB participation
- CMC Review and KDP-B DPMC (To be rescheduled NET Oct 2011)
- ESA Cosmic Vision SPC downselect Oct/Nov 2011
Solar Terrestrial Probes (STP) Program
Magnetospheric Multiscale (MMS)
- Instrument SIR (U/R) Early January 2012
- Mission SIR Late January 2012
Explorers Program
Announcement of Opportunity (AO) evaluation progressing
per plan; there were:
22 full EX Missions (15 Astro/7 Helio),
20 Missions of Opportunity (11 Astro/9 Helio),
8 USPI (all Helio)
Target Selection Date: Late Sept 2011
Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph
(IRIS)
SDO Accomplishments
 A year after SDO's first light, researchers submitted 191 abstracts to
the first SDO science meeting. This corresponds to a new result
almost every two days--a remarkable output.
Some Highlights!
 Solar flares are more powerful than we thought. EVE data show
that flares produce as much as five times more energy than
previously believed. The extra radiation comes out at relatively long
wavelengths (longer than soft x-ray) that powerfully effect Earth's
atmosphere. The Sun-Earth connection just got 5 times stronger!
 Solar activity is fundamentally global. Solar physicists have long
suspected this. The famous August 1st eruption plus many lesser
examples have extinguished all doubt.
 The Sun is more beautiful than anyone imagined. Many of the
phenomena SDO routinely record have no textbook names. Stories
on SDO continues to be covered by all sorts of news magazines,
science or otherwise.
NASA Living with a Star Program
Targeted Research & Technology
Steering Committee
SPP Accomplishments
 Science Investigations Selected on Sep. 2, 2010
 FIELDS Experiment: PI – Stuart Bale, University of California Space
Sciences Laboratory in Berkeley, CA
 Solar Wind Electrons Alphas and Protons (SWEAP) Investigation: PI –
Justin C. Kasper, Smithsonian Astronomical Observatory in Cambridge,
MA
 Wide-field Imager for Solar PRobe (WISPR): PI – Russell Howard,
Naval Research Laboratory in Washington, DC
 Integrated Science Investigation of the Sun (ISIS): PI – David
McComas, Southwest Research Institute in San Antonio, TX
 (EPI-Hi – JPL and EPI-Low – APL)
 Heliospheric Origins with Solar Probe Plus: PI – Marco Velli, NASA Jet
Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, CA
 Mission Observatory Scientist
Major Milestones
Mission Design Review – October, 2011
Preliminary Design Review – January 2014*
Critical Design Review – November 2015*
Integration and Testing start – August 2016*
Pre-Environmental Review – July 2017*
Pre-Ship Review – May 2018*
Launch Readiness Date – August 2018
End of Mission – September 2025
* Preliminary and subject to change
NSWP Updates
A new strategic plan is available
http://www.ofcm.gov/nswp-sp/2010/NSWP%20StratPlan%20for%20web.pdf
The Grand Challenges for Disaster Reduction is a ten-year strategy crafted by the National
Science and Technology Council’s Subcommittee on Disaster Reduction (SDR).
http://www.sdr.gov/185820_Space_FINAL.pdf
At the request of OSTP NSWP is initiating a new assessment in response to the 2010 NASA
Authorization Act, Section 809. (The Act also requires the Director of the Office of Science and
Technology Policy (OSTP) to submit a report to the appropriate committees of Congress that: "(A)
details the current data sources, both space- and ground-based, that are necessary for space
weather forecasting; and (B) details the space- and ground-based systems that will be required to
gather data necessary for space weather forecasting for the next 10 years)
The plan calls for the formation of a Joint Action Group for Space Environmental Capabilities
Analysis (JAG/SECA) to conduct the assessment.
Space Weather Week: in Boulder, April 25-28, 2011
SWEF on June 21st
Theme: "Here comes the Sun! National Space Weather Priorities to prepare for Solar
Maximum"
ISWI
The International Space Weather Initiative was established in
February 2009 to continue the aspects of the International
Heliophysical Year that need long-term support.
It is endorsed by the United Nations, and is supported by the U.S.
State Department, which enables activities in nations that have had
little involvement in space weather science.
ISWI prioritizes collaborations with scientists in areas of the world
that have been underrepresented.
A key component is the instrument program, which forms
partnerships between instrument builders and institutes to host
the instruments. There are currently fourteen instrument arrays
participating in the program (see http://iswi-secretariat.org for a
list of current instrument arrays, and instrument sites).
The data and modeling program operates in a similar way, forming
new partnerships between nations.
Heliophysics Text Books
The sub-disciplines within Heliophysics have a rich variety of available
textbooks, but no textbooks currently exist that present the diverse materials
from their common physical principles, and help teachers well-versed in one
discipline to teach the directly related areas within other disciplines.
Three affordable textbooks will be produced for each year of the Summer
School. The books will be aimed for senior level undergraduates, graduate
students and beginning postdoctoral students in all of the sciences related to
climate physics, space physics, and heliospheric and solar physics, plus
relevant branches of astrophysics and plasma physics. The three textbooks
will cover all of the topics in heliophysics.
NOTE: The Heliophysics textbooks will be published by Cambridge
University Press. All appendices will be online. The physical textbooks will
not have 'numerical modeling descriptions' nor 'problem sets'.
Description, table of contents and provisional textbook covers:
http://www.vsp.ucar.edu/HeliophysicsScience/
Outreach
 Eddy Interdisiplinary Workshop, Aspen, Co, Oct, 2010
 The Logistis of Extreme Space Weather: Preparing for the Inevitable,
Newport News, VA, Nov., 2010
 ILWS Poster presentation at IAA Heads of Agency meeting, Nov,
2010
 Sun-Climate workshop, January 2011,Goa, India
 UNCOPUOS presentation on extreme space weather and extreme
solar minimum, Feb, 2010 & ISWI Steering Committee Meeting
 Sun 360 Conference in Kiel, Germany July 25-29
 Heliophysics Summer School July 27- Aug 3, Boulder CO
 - The Effects of Solar Variability on Earth's Climate: A Workshop,
September 8-10, 2011, Boulder, CO
http://sites.nationalacademies.org/SSB/CurrentProjects/SSB_061983
Issues and Challenges
 NRC Heliophysics Decadal Survey Team has been provided with revised
resource boundaries assuming flat budget and impacts of NLS2 contract.
 An augmentation of the Heliophysics Explorer program has a strategic
impact for the national SWx program. NRC Decadal Survey expected to
recommend as a high priority in 2013 report.
 Eroding R&A Funding impacts national research community. Restructuring
of the Research and Analysis portion of the Division is a prime issue for
2011/2012.
 International partnership challenges:
 NLS2 cost increases for launchers is a threat to international
collaboration. US reduces scope of contribution.
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From Here to 2022
2012 SWx Contribution by NASA missions includes
the beacon mode data from the newly launched
RBSP,SDO, STEREO, ACE, and the SOHO data
system .
The Mission Data are stored in the VxO, and the
CCMC provides NRT Models from this data. The
R&A and TRT (LWS) develop Theory for inclusion
into new models.
2022 It is possible that some of the missions
of 2012 will be operational, such as SDO and
ACE - but harder to predict the effects due
to age on STEREO, SOHO and RBSP.
The Future of NASA data systems, the NASA
modeling efforts, and the Theory Program
will be influenced by the upcoming (2013)
NRC Decadal Survey.