Transcript Population

GROWTH SET TO CONTINUE: Marco-Economic Outlook for
Asia/Pacific
GDP growth (%)
160
Size of Middle Class (in million)
140
6
120
5
China
Korea
Thailand
Malaysia
Taiwan
100
4
80
World
AP
3
2
40
1
20
0
0
2002 2003E 2004F 2005F 2006F
Highest growth region with changing trade
patterns and increasing portion of
domestic demand
1)
60
2002
2010F
Every 1% gained in private consumption
translates into over $70b more in
consumption
Source: Economist Intelligence Unit Update; 2) Master Card estimates
REGION ASIA – THE NATURE OF THE BEAST
Singapore
Thailand
China
India
Ethnic
groups:
People
• 336
major
tribes
Languages: • Hindi
• 1,600
dialects
Trade
Struc.
Pricing
Religions:
• Hindu
• Muslim
• Others
% sales of
modern
trade
• <5%
Ave. price • 2.3
per footwear
(€)
• 93%
Chinese
• 7% others
Ethnic
groups:
Languages: • Mandarin
• >100
dialects
Languages: • Thai
Religions:
• Buddhist,
others
• Confuc% sales of • ~30%
ianism
Buddhism, modern
trade
Taoism,
others
Ave. price • 14.1
per footwear
% sales of • <10%
(€)
modern
trade
Religions:
Ave. price • 3.4
per footwear
(€)
• Chinese,
Malay,
Indian,
Others
Languages:• English,
Malay,
Mandarin,
etc.
Religions: • Christian,
Buddhist,
Muslim,
etc
% sales of • >80%
modern
trade
Ave. price • 48.2
per footwear
(€)
Ethnic
groups:
• 99 %
Japanese
• 1%
Others
Languages: • Japanese
Religions: • Shinto
Buddhist,
Others
% sales of • >90%
modern
trade
Ave. price • >48
per footwear
(€)
High
Mid
Low
Very Low
• 75% Thai
• 8%
Chinese
• 17%
Others
Ethnic
groups:
Ethnic
groups:
Japan
Economic
development
Source: Lit search; CIA Factbook; BCG analysis
REGION ASIA – THE NATURE OF THE BEAST
Population
Population
in mio.
Population
in mio.
Population
in mio.
Population
in mio.
2001
2007 FC
2015 FC
2016 FC
• Half of the world
population
China
1,278
1,339
1,380
1,386
India
1,027
1,112
1,235
1,250
• Young population …
Indonesia
214
232
254
257
Japan
127
127
125
125
Vietnam
80
89
94
95
Philippines
78
85
100
102
Thailand
63
63
66
66
Korea
47
49
51
51
Malaysia
24
25
29
30
Taiwan
22
24
24
24
Australia
19
20
22
22
Hong Kong,
China
7
6
9
9
New Zealand
4
4
4
4
Singapore
3
4
4
4
2,993
3,179
94,217
95,055
• … >50% below 30 years
old
• Increasing concentration
in cities
• … 30% 0 to 14 years old
Calcutta
ASIA PACIFIC RELATIVE SIZE OF ECONOMIES
10000
China
India
Population (million)
1000
Indonesia
100
Vietnam
Japan
Philippines
Thailand
Korea
Malaysia
Taiwan
10
Hong Kong
Singapore
100
1000
10000
GNI Per Capita (US$) 2002
100000
ASIA PACIFIC RELATIVE SIZE OF ECONOMIES MEASURED
WITH PURCHASING POWER PARITY
10000
Population (million)
India
China
1000
Indonesia
Thailand
100
Japan
Korea
Vietnam
Philippines
Taiwan
Malaysia
10
Hong Kong
Singapore
1000
10000
GNI Per Capita (US$) 2002 PPP
100000
THE 30 LARGEST CITIES IN THE WORLD
City
Country
Ranking
Population
City
Country
Ranking
Population
Tokyo
Japan
1
33,413,000
Shanghai
China
16
12,190,000
Mexico
Mexico
2
21,701,925
Rio de Janeiro
Brazil
17
11,629,629
New York
USA
3
21,199,865
Teheran
Iran
18
11,475,100
Seoul
South Korea
4
20,156,800
Paris
France
19
11,376,193
Sao Paulo
USA
4
20,156,800
Ruhr
Germany
20
11,291,100
Jakarta
Indonesia
6
18,206,700
Karachi
Pakistan
21
10,807,800
Osaka-KyotoKobe
Japan
7
17,646,900
Dhaka
Bangladesh
22
10,545,897
Istanbul
Turkey
23
10,301,400
Delhi
India
8
17,367,300
Londres
Royaume Uni
24
10,229,219
Mumbai
India
9
17,340,900
Lagos
Nigeria
25
9,529,700
Los Angeles
USA
10
16,895,945
Beijing
China
26
9,376,200
Le Caire
Egypt
11
16,244,700
Bangkok
Thailand
27
9,308,924
Calcutta
India
12
14,362,546
Chicago
USA
28
9,157,540
Buenos Aires
Argentine
13
14,235,106
Congo
29
8,915,800
Manila
Philippines
14
14,140,000
KinshasaBrazzaville
Moscow
Russia
15
12,622,400
Nagoya
Japan
30
8,657,000
UNDERSTANDING ASIA
By 2010……
• 30 towns of >5 million habitants
2 in USA, 6 in Europe)
• Shanghai, Bombay > 20 million
• Beijing, Indonesia, Manila,
Calcutta, Delhi, Tianjin, Dacca >15
million
UNDERSTANDING ASIA
6 Megatrends in the Region
NOMINAL PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FOR ASIA-PACIFIC
AT A GLANCE
Nominal private
consumption (US$ Bn)
7000
• from village to Metropolitan
6000
5000
4000
• from export to market demand
• from poverty to major savings
3000
2000
1000
0
• from labor force to advanced technologies
• from isolation to integration
• the asianisation of the world
2003
2008
Asia-Pacific Aggregate
UNDERSTANDING ASIA
6 Megatrends in the Region
China
• from village to Metropolitan
• from export to market demand
Asia
30%
Europe
USA
20%
10%
• from poverty to major savings
• from labor force to advanced technologies
• from isolation to integration
• the asianisation of the world
6%
UNDERSTANDING ASIA
6 Megatrends in the Region
• from village to Metropolitan
• from export to market demand
• from poverty to major savings
• from labor force to advanced technologies
• from isolation to integration
• the asianisation of the world
UNDERSTANDING ASIA
6 Megatrends in the Region
• from village to Metropolitan
• from export to market demand
• from poverty to major savings
• from labor force to advanced technologies
• from isolation to integration
• the asianisation of the world
UNDERSTANDING ASIA
6 Megatrends in the Region
• from village to Metropolitan
• from export to market demand
• from poverty to major savings
• from labor force to advanced technologies
• from isolation to integration
• the asianization of the world
CHALLENGES FOR ASIA PACIFIC
• Poverty
• Unemployment
• Financial Fragility
• Infrastructure
• Corruption
• Deregulation & Trade Liberalization
THE TOP 20 BRANDS ACROSS EIGHT ASIAN MARKETS
BRAND
CATEGORY
1
Sony
Consumer electronics
2
Nokia
Mobile phone
3
Kodak
Camera/Film/Office Equipment
4
Panasonic
Computer/Consumer electronics
5
Coca-Cola
Soft drinks
6
Canon
Camera/Office equipment
7
Toyota
Automotive/Motorcycle
8
Honda
Automotive/Motorcycle
9
Fuji
Camera/Consumer electronics
10
Nike
Sports apparel/Accessories/Footwear
11
Rolex
Luxury watch/Accessories
12
McDonald’s
Fastfood/Coffee chain
13
Mercedes-Benz
Automotive
14
BMW
Automotive/Motorcycle
15
Shell
Petrol/Oil company
16
adidas
Sports apparel/Accessories/Footwear
17
Samsung
Automotive/Consumer electronics
18
Marlboro
Cigarette
19
7-Eleven
Convenience store/Supermarket
20
Yahoo
Internet search engine
Source: “media Portfolio” 16 July 2004