Transcript hazard

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Natural Hazards
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[email protected]
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www.geophysik.uni-muenchen.de/~malservisi/classes/NaturalHazards.htm
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1.11
6.11
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29.11
4.12
6.12
11.12
room
thema
TU 0714
Intro
LMU 406
Intro Energy
TU 0714
plate tectonics
LMU 406
Earthquakes
Lab 1
national holiday
rocco in BC
rocco in BC
rocco in BC
rocco in BC
LMU 406
Earthquakes
TU 0714
Earthquakes
rocco in Berlin
TU 0714
Earthquakes Lab 1 Due day
LMU 406
Volcanoes
TU 0714
Volcanoes
AGU
13.12
18.12
20.12
25.12
27.12
1.1
3.1
8.1
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17.1
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29.1
31.1
5.2
7.2
AGU
LMU 406
Volcanoes
TU 0714
Tsunami
Xmas
Xmas
Xmas
Xmas
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Tsunami
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storm
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hurricanes Lab
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hurricanes
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flood
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flood
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summary
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2 due day
Lab 3
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A Definition:
HAZARD
A natural Hazard exist where a natural event is likely to harm
people or properties
Another useful definition:
RISK:
The Probability that an events can occur in a given time
X
the damage that the occurrence would cause
Not all the events are equals
Hazard vs Risk
Largest earthquake in the 90s:
Magnitude 8.4 Balleny Islands Region
1998 March 25 03:12:25 UTC
NO SIGNIFICANT DAMAGES
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NO CASUALTIES
Not all the events are equals
Hazards vs Risk
Same year 1998:
Magnitude 5.5 Afghanistan-Tajikistan Border Region
1998 February 04 14:33:21 UTC
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At least 2323 people killed
8094 houses destroyed
6725 livestock killed
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Hazards vs Risks
Hazard: the potential to cause harm
Risk: the likelihood of harm in defined circumstances
Example:
Balleny Island potentially High seismic hazard Low seismic risk
If you build something there has the potential to be damaged
but since there is nothing the likelihood to be damaged is low.
Afghanistan High seismic hazard High seismic risk
The probability of earthquakes is high and the building in the
Region are not built to resist an earthquake so it is very likely
That a seismic event can make lot of damages.
Frequency vs Magnitude
In general the Magnitude of an event is inversely proportional
to its Frequency to a given power. This says that normally the
two variable are linear in a log log scale. Es for earthquakes:
The damage is not always related to large events.
Often lot of moderate events can do more damage than a big one.
Example of destroying a forest:
Termites are many and works continuously but in typical
conditions do not destroy a full forest
Humans are fewer and work less often but cutting few trees at
the time they can finish a forest (e.g. Iceland in middle age)
Elephant destroy lot of tree in one time but they are so few in a
forest that their damages can be easily recovered.
The problem is when the large event became frequents (now the
men destroy more than an elephant!)
Biggest risk?
Extraterrestrial Impact!!!
Can we change the hazard or the risk?
MITIGATION
Let’s take for example a volcano:
Can we change the hazard?
Or in other words can we stop the eruption?
But we can reduce the risk if we do not build our cities
On the lahar path or too close to the volcano!!
So what can we do??
MITIGATION
• Predictable or not?
• Preparedness and education
• Prevention vs reaction
Predictable vs Unpredictable
Hurricane are predictable with few
Days of warning
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Images from Hurricane
Ivan 2004
Predictable vs Unpredictable
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People can evacuate:
Lot of damages but few casualty:
Hurricane Andrew in 1992 is one of
the worst disaster of US as total
damages (250000 homeless 82000
business destroyed) but “only” 23
death
Preparedness and planning
Can reduce the amount
of damages
Predictable vs Unpredictable
Earthquake can not be predicted but
we know the regions where they can
occur
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Predictable vs Unpredictable
So we can plan it with building that can resist the ground shaking
“earthquakes do not kill, buildings do it”
Region where earthquake
emergency are planned
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Niigata, Japan, 1964 Mb 7.5
28 lives lost
And where they are not
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Irpinia, Italy, 1980 Mb 6.9
4689 lives lost
Prediction Examples
Hurricane prediction:
Meteo observations and numerical model
can help the forecast the evolution of a tropical
storm up to 5 days in advance. Local storm and
Tornado can not be forecasted.
Few days to few hours. Short term evacuation.
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Meteorology, Climatology, Oceanography, Remote Sensing
Forecasting Volcanic
Activity
• Seismic Activities: Earthquakes as precursors
• Thermal, magnetic and hydrologic conditions
• Amount of volcanic gas emission
• Topographic monitoring: Tilting and special bulging
• Remote sensing: Radar 3-D interferometry
• Geologic history of a volcano
Prediction Examples
Volcanoes prediction:
Geological study let us know the past
history of the volcano and its typical
behavior (explosive or not, lahars path,
etc…)
Geodetic observation monitor the
deformation of the volcano.
Seismology give us the position of
magma reservoir and magma movement.
Geochemical monitoring give us clues
about the evolution of magma
These observations give as a day to day
vital signs of the activity and allow to
indicate the probability of an event
The forecasters can
predict the probability
Mount Etna InSar
of the eventdeformation
from few before
months to few
hours
eruption.
before it happens.
It can be
USGS
necessary to
have long
Measuring
term
evacuation
CO2
At Long
Valley
California
Volcanology, Geology, Geophysics, Remote Sensing
Good example of Mitigation
Study of the hazard:
• Location
• Probability of occurrence
• Precursor
• Forecast
• Warning
Good example of Mitigation
Study of the hazard:
ALL THIS CAN WORK ONLY IF
• Location
WE HAVE
• Probability of occurrence
• PLANNING
• Precursor
• PREPAREDNESS
• Forecast
• EDUCATION
• Warning
These things are easier in richer
countries!
Natural Processes so
where the energy came from?
Which processes are involved
in Natural Hazards?
For hazards associated with geological processes the
“fight” between gravity and heat flow is the major player
thus plate tectonic, an effect of this “fight” is the theory
At the base of hazards related to earthquakes and volcanoes
Importance of time and speed
Importance of connectivity among different hazards