Transcript Prof. Pär Weihed: The domestic metallic and mineral resources in

The domestic metallic and mineral
resources in Europe.
Is the lack geological or political?
Pär Weihed
Centre of Advanced Mining & Metallurgy
Luleå University of Technology
Why do we need metal
extraction in Europe?
Hi!
Did you know that
each of us will, during
our life time use...
...more
than 1700
tonnes of
metals and
minerals!
Some take aways:
•In general 2-3% increase in global consumption of metals
per year
•EU contributes around 3% and consumes over 20%
•Decrease in “world class” or “tier 1” mineral deposit
discoveries
•For many of the “critical materials” the world demands are
satisfied by 2-3 new mines
•Recycling rate of infrastructure metals close to maximum in
EU (not the case with high tech metals)
•Increased focus on LCA of metals, peak metal, scarcity,
limits to growths etc.
Preliminary geological scarcity “stress test”
1)
Geological scarcity estimate of
selected metals
Fe
Cu
Au
1)
2)
Years to
depletion 2008
2)
Prod. Rate
338 880
21 711
7 926
Years to
depletion 2050
2)
Prod. Rate
97 923
6 274
2 290
top 1 000 m continental crust
no recycling, 100% extraction
NO FIXED STOCK!
Cu-production and reserves reported by USGS in annual commodity reports 1995-2010
1000000
900000
800000
700000
Kt
600000
year 1
year 2est.
500000
Reserves
400000
Reserve base
300000
200000
100000
0
94/95 95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07
08/09
07/08
Kt Cu
800000
Aitik, Sweden
700000
NO FIXED STOCK!
600000
500000
400000
Reserves
Production
Acc. Prod.
300000
200000
100000
0
Why metal consumption will continue to increase over the foreseeable future!
Population growth
Urbanisation
Demand forecast
Global production (tonnes) assuming 0% and 3% growth for Fe, Cu and Au
Fe 3%
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
Acc.
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
1,88 x 10
11
9,32 x 10
10
2,36 x10
2,73 x 10
3,17 x 10
3,66 x 10
4,25 x 10
4,93 x 10
5,71 x 10
6,62 x 10
7,68 x 10
Fe 0%
Cu 3%
6
16,3 x 10
18,9 x 10
6
22,0 x 10
6
25,4 x 10
6
29,5 x 10
6
34,2 x 10
6
40,0 x 10
6
46,0 x 10
6
53,2 x 10
6
Cu 0%
Au 3%
9
1,30 x 10
0,65 x 10
2398
2780
3222
Au 0%
Source production data 2008: USGS
3735
4330
5020
5819
6746
7821
9
190934
94920
The geological potential
in Europe
AND KEY METALLOGENIC PROVINCES
Lapland (Fe)
Skellefte-Pyhäsalmi (Cu, Zn, Au, Ni, Co)
Bergslagen (Fe, Zn)
Irish (Zn)
Foresudetic basin (Cu, Co, Pt, Re)
Carpathians (Pb, Zn, Au)
Balkans (Cu, Au, Sn)
Iberian Pyrite Belt (Cu, Zn, Sn)
ABCD-belt
Source: Hellas Gold, IGME Greece
•
•
•
•
•
Romania, Bulgaria, Greece, Turkey
Major potential for base and precious metals, very limited
exploration
Social license to operate limited
Image of mining (Baia Mare spill)
CSR legacy?
Iberian
pyrite belt
Source: LNEG, IGME Spain
•
•
•
•
Spain, Portugal
Major potential for base, one of the largest accumulations
of massive sulphides on earth, limited deep exploration
Social license to operate limited in some areas (Dam
failure Aznacollar)
Image of mining?
Forsudetic
basin
(Kupferschiefer)
Source: TU BAF, KGHM Cuprum
•
•
•
•
Poland (Germany)
Major potential for base and precious metals, limited deep
exploration
Social license to operate ok (Germany?)
Image of mining ok (Germany?)
Fennoscandia
•
•
•
•
Finland, Norway, Sweden (Greenland)
Major potential for ferrous, base and
precious metals, limited deep
exploration
Social license to operate ok
Image of mining generally ok
(Indigenous peoples issues)
Exploration
–
Where things go
wrong…
Exploration investment, why is Europe lagging behind?
•
Global non-ferrous exploration approx. US$18 200 million in 2011 (MEG, 2012)
•
European exploration approximately € 400 million in 2011. An all time high, but
only 4% of global (RMG 2012)
•
Sweden, Finland, Norway and Greenland and Poland, accounted for €288
million, or more than two thirds of total European exploration expenditure (RMG
2012)
Few majors active in Europe
•
Access to land limited in many parts
•
Social license top operate limited in many parts
•
Legislation unclear in many parts
•
Political support for mining lacking in many parts
•
Better value for money elsewhere…
Non-ferrous Exploration expenditure 2011
Sources: Metals Economics Group, Raw materials Group, Wikipedia
Figures should be treated with care since the different sources have not
exactly defined the geographical extent of the regions. In the EU figures
also ferrous exploration is included.
So…
–
Is lack of resources
geological or political?
EU export of “impact” not
sustainable?
Will D
+
I
=
E
+
C
be possible?
Summary
• Global consumption will continue to increase
• Europe will, if exploration investment is not increasing,
widen the gap between consumption and domestic supply
• There is a huge untapped potential for new discoveries in
Europe
• Legislation, access to land, image and perception issues
must be tackled
• CSR is a MUST
• RDI in Europe must focus on improved exploration
technology and understanding the geology in 3D