Transcript Bruce`s Fermi Presentation - Fullerton College Staff Web Pages

An update on Fermi’s famous question about ...
EXTRATERRESTRIALS:
“Where Are They?”
Dr. Bruce Cordell
Fullerton College
May, 2006
Tonight’s Path...
• What is Fermi’s Paradox anyway?
• How has Fermi’s Paradox traditionally
been explained?
• What new data do we have that
illuminates this question?
• What tentative conclusions are possible
at this time?
Our Galaxy is Old
Fermi’s Paradox
• Our Galaxy is old (12+ billion years)
• Plus, it is moderate in size (100,000 l.y.)
• Any advanced civilization could colonize
the Galaxy in a few million years…
Therefore, ETs should be here…so...
“Where are they?”
Possible Types of Answers to
Fermi’s Paradox
• They don’t exist
• They can’t contact us (comm or
trans)
• They don’t care to contact us
• They are here.
Maybe...They don’t exist...
The Drake Equation
N=R*fs*fp*ne*fl*fi*fc*L
http://www.seds.org/~rme/drake.html
Does N=1 ?
Are There Other Planets?
As of 11/14/2008, 326 planets are known to
exist outside our solar system!
No Earth-like Planets Are Known
http://www.jtwinc.com/Extrasolar/mainframes.html
A Unusual Solar System!
The Secret to Earth...
Earth’s Big Brother
Are Earth-like Environments
Rare?
• Star Lifetime
• Distance/Spin/
Oceans
• Mass/Atmos
Recycling
• Circular Orbits
• Large Satellite
• Jupiter Comet
Filter
• Solar (2%+)
Metallicity
• Galaxy Orbit (a
few %)
• Magnetic
Field/Atmos
Earth’s Climatic Anchor
Do They All Die Young?
•
•
•
•
•
•
Cosmic Dust Clouds
Supernovas
Small Black Holes
Environmental Crises
Machine Intelligence
Others...
Maybe...Contact is Impossible...
• They Can’t Find Us?
Von Neumann Machines
• They Can’t Get Here?
V= 0.001c
• They Can’t Communicate?
Arecibo and beams
Maybe…They’re Just Not
Interested...
•
•
•
•
We are subjects of an experiment?
We are being monitored and controlled?
They are not gregarious?
They are playing with an inferior
species?
• We’re considered dangerous?
We cannot judge their motivations.
Maybe…They’re Here!…
Are Some UFOs ET Spacecrafts?
• Extraordinary unidentified sightings do
exist by reliable observers
• Physical evidence includes photos and
environmental effects
• Influentials add authenticity (e.g. Mitchell)
• Government interest and cover-ups are
documented
“UFOs are real.” Apollo Astronaut
A UFO Sightings Sampler
Whatever they are, UFOs do exist.
• Best FOIA Jet Incident
• Best self-admitted
- Tehran, Iran (1976)
Gov’t CoverUp • Best Photo Roswell, NM (1947)
McMinneville,OR
• Best multi-witness
• Best Public SightingCE-III - Fr. Gill,
Washington National
Papua New Guinea
Airport (1952)
(1959)
• Best UFO Survey of
• Best Abduction Astronomers Travis Walton, AZ
Sturrock
The Astronomical Observations...
• There are no electromagnetic signals from
ETs
• There are no Dyson Spheres
• There is no observational evidence for ET
spacecraft in the Galaxy
• There are no “polluted” stellar spectra
• There are no known Earth-like planets
• There is no convincing evidence for ET
artifacts on other planets
Two Preliminary Observations
• Everything we see in the Galaxy is
consistent with a non-ET model…
Therefore,
ETs may not exist.
• A wealth of unidentified sightings by
reliable witnesses exists that is supported
by impressive evidence...Therefore,
UFOs may exist.
2 Speculative Models Currently
Consistent with Observations
1. A Blast From the Past
UFOs might be Von Neumann Machines
of ancient ET civilizations that are no
longer present
2. Messengers of Deception
UFOs might be a human-created Control
System designed to reduce global
conflicts by simulating an ET threat