Transcript 11. Positioning of Ethiopia in world market

World Sesame Outlook and Ethiopia’s
position in the world market
Sesame
Stakeholders Network Meeting
(April 20-21, 2015) Mekelle,
Ethiopia, organized by
SBN & C4C/SNV, Agriterra/
C4C
World Sesame Production and Export
Description
Figure
No producing countries
76
Dominant countries
Asia &Africa
Production growth (2002-2012)
3.75 %
Export growth
6.10 %
(2002-2012)
C4C
Share of export over production
25%-30%
World demand
Increasing fast(>SS)
700000
Ethiopia's Sesame traded volume and FOB value
(2008/09-2013/14)
600000
500000
400000
300000
200000
100000
0
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
Volume(MT)
2011/12
fob value ('000USD)
2012/13
2013/14
Ethiopia’s Sesame seeds
Characteristics
NO
HUMERA TYPE
WELLEGA TYPE
1
Appreciated for its aroma and
sweet taste
mainly used in raw form because of
their aesthetic value
2
Whitish color
White seeds, with a white to
golden colour
3
larger seeds size;
Small seeds
4
Good uniform seeds
5
48 – 50% oil content
High oil content 49 -56%
6
Used for bakery products,
Tahinia confectionary
Seeds crushed into oil
Current sesame market dynamics
2. The prices of sesame
seeds has been dropped
compared to 2014
Global
From 2200 USD to 1200 USD/MT
Ethiopia
From 2600 USD to <1400 USD/MT
Ethiopia’s FOB price trend from Jan/2014 to March/2015
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
Price in USD per MT
C4C
2005-2015 Ethiopia Whitish Sesame CNF Price Trend in China
C4C
Sesame Price Trend Comparison for Domestic and Imported Sesame
2006-2015
C4C
a. Good Harvest in India
& this resulted not to
import from Africa
2014/15 global
Sesame production
volume is beyond
the expectation and
the information
from the consuming
side could hardly
make people
optimistic
High Sesame Seed Price
b. High & unexpected
growth in production
happened in most of
the African countries:
1. ETHIOPIA : 260-290 ; SUDAN : 60-180
2. TANZANIA: 120-140; UGANDA :20-30;
MOZAMBIQUE 30-40
3. NIGERIA : 200-240; OTHER W.A :130-160
Low demand and surplus for
Low demand and surplus for
Maize/Corn, Sugar, Cotton,
Soya etc.
C4C
2. a month of delays in the harvest
& marketing of India sesame,
together with the concentrated
harvest and marketing of sesame in
East and West African
3. Poor quality
of Ethiopia’s
Sesame
compared to
previous years
4. Sesame seeds
with 50-54% Oil
at price of
$1200/MTs is still
in better position
most Chinese processors and millers have
supplied their sesame STOCKS after Spring
Festival,
more sesame shipments coming
from Ethiopia, India, Togo, Sudan
and Nigeria
C4C
after the Spring Festival, prices continue
to "decline on the slide", market remain
be weak in the short term
In china in April , 2015, the phenomenon of supply
exceeds demand will be the same as
before. However, the overseas sesame price has
reached an extremely cheap level after four months of
sharp decline
traders need to maintain the free flow of cash,
processors are buying on current demand
Lack of market confidence, keep sliding
Rhythm
Purchase or Continue to Wait & See.
C4C
Optimistic
feeling persist
(high price)
>140,000MT
in stock
Domestic sesame
buying price continue
upward( higher than
world price):
e.g. On march 31/2015
ECX Average price: 1267 USD/MT (and If you export 1500 USD/MT)
However
Actual FOB Average price : 1374 USD/MT
High pressure on the International selling price will continue in the
coming months on contrary if the Indian and Tanzanian crop fails the
will bestock;
the opposite
Looseoutcome
buyers,
loss; competitiveness
OPPORTUNITIES FOR ALL
.
-
China
Japan
End user
consumption has
been increased
Substitution
effect.
keep the trade active & continued
demand of sesame seed
C4C
OPPORTUNITIES FOR ETHIOPIA
.
-
Well established brand :
quality sesame producer;
presence of adequate land and
inexpensive labour
C4C
C4C
COMPETITIVENESS OF ETHIOPIA ??
Not speculate; high cost
Bargain P
Info:world
prod
&marketing
Business
arrangement
High
PRICE
Limited longterm
contract
100% comply with contractual arrangements
Unions have not
utilized efficiently
the ‘traceability’ &
the direct export
advantage over
common traders.
DELIVERY
Poor Export
Management
High cost of
Production
VOLUME
( high)
Competitiveness
Processors: big size,
Individual
uniform &white
quality
defect result QUALITY
in bad image (world brand)
on country’s
market
Varies with exporters
Low
productivity
Cost
Productivity
B2B
Limited profiling &
communication
Trade is all about creating
relationships & trust
Global sesame FOB price (March/2015)
Product
Ethiopia
First-grade sesame (2014-2015) from 1470
direct suppliers
Second-grade sesame (2014-2015)
1370
from direct suppliers
White sesame (2014-2015 seasons
Sudan
India
Nigeria
Mali
Burkina Faso
New white sesame (2014-2015)
Nigeria oilseed (2014-2015)
Mixed sesame (2014-2015)
Mixed sesame (2014-2015)
White sesame (2014-2015)
Fob price CNF price
USD/MT USD/MT
1430
1500
1240
1230
1240
1270
rem
ark
Shipment date in Apr.
Price
Country
2013/14 Top Ethiopian Sesame Destination
Countries
% Share
Diversification
China???
China
83%
1% 4%
1%1%
2%
2%
Israel
Turkey
3%
4%
Jordan
6%
Saudi Arabia
Greece
Korea, Republic
15%
61%
Japan
Lebanon
Egypt
Others
India export to:
Far East 41% and EU 20%
Far east(Korea PR29%, Vietnam
25% and chaina 4%)
WORK FOR COUNTRY’S
COMPETITIVENESS
.
-
C4C
C4C
ISSUES FOR DISCUSSION
1. How can Ethiopia position itself better
in the world market? Including market
diversification to EU?
2. How cooperatives/unions become
efficient & effective Market player?
3. Up to what level quality of sesame
improved? How?
የመወያያ ጥያቄዋች
ችግር(issues)
1. ኢትዮÉያ በአለም የሰሊጥ ገበያ ላይ
ጥሩ ተፎካካሪ እንድትሆን ምን መደረግ
ይሮርበታል ? የወጭ ንግድ መዳረሻ
ሀገሮችን ወደ አዉሮፓ ሀገሮች ለማበራከት
እንዴት ይቻላል?
2. ህብረት ስራ ማህበራትና ዮኔኖች
በሰሊጥ ግብይቱ ብቁና ዉጤታማ
ተወናዋይ እንዲሆኑ ምን መሆን አለበት
3. የሰሊጥን ጥራት በምን መልኩና
በምን ደረጃ ማሻሻል ይቻላል?
ምን
(what ?)
ማን
(Who?)
መቸ
(when?)
መ
አ
C4C
ግ
ሰ
ና
THANK YOU
ለ
ሁ