Transcript www.karvycomtrade.com

HARISH .G
KARVY COMTRADE LTD
AGENDA
 INTRODUCTION
 AGRONOMICAL FEATURES
 SEASONALITY
 DEMAND AND SUPPLY ANALYSIS
 PRICE ANALYSIS
 ARRIVAL PATTERN
 FACTORS TO WATCH OUT
 PRICE TARGET
INTRODUCTION
 “Queen of Spices” - Ginger family Zingiberaceae
 Expensive spice after Vanilla and Saffron
 Three typical kinds - Malabar, Mysore and Ceylon
 Native of India, Sri Lanka and parts of Southeast Asia
 Called as a Versatile Spice - Usage in both sweet and salty
foods
 Auyervedic medicine preparations
AGRONOMICAL FEATURES AND SEASONALITY
 Conditions of the evergreen forests in the Western Ghats.
 Canopy of lofty, evergreen forest trees
 Highly sensitive to wind and drought
Seasonality
 Crop – Perennial
 Yield – Starts from second year of planting
 Harvesting - August to January
WORLD SCENARIO
World production of cardamom is estimated at 30000 MT
Major producer is Guatemala - An average annual
production of 18000 to 20000 MT
India - second largest producer - An average production of
11000 to 12000 MT
Indian cardamom - Superior quality
 About 60% of the world production is exported to Arab
(South West Asia, North Africa) countries
DEMAND AND SUPPLY ANALYSIS
Cardamom production in Guatemala
Production (MT)
28000
23000
18000
Stagnant production
13000
8000
3000
2000
2001
2002
2003
Year
2004
2005
Area (Hects)
Production (Tonnes)
20 04-0 5
20 02-0 3
20 00-0 1
19 98-9 9
19 96-9 7
19 94-9 5
19 92-9 3
19 90-9 1
19 88-8 9
19 86-8 7
19 84-8 5
19 82-8 3
19 80-8 1
19 78-7 9
19 76-7 7
19 74-7 5
19 72-7 3
19 70-7 1
Area (ha)
110000
90000
11000
80000
9000
70000
60000
7000
50000
40000
5000
30000
3000
20000
10000
1000
Production (tonnes)
DEMAND AND SUPPLY ANALYSIS
Area and Production of Cardamom in India
13000
100000
DEMAND AND SUPPLY ANALYSIS
Cardamom production in India
Production follows 6-7 year
cyclical pattern
10500
8500
6500
4500
2500
Production (Tonnes)
2004-05
2002-03
2000-01
1998-99
1996-97
1994-95
1992-93
1990-91
1988-89
1986-87
1984-85
1982-83
1980-81
1978-79
1976-77
1974-75
1972-73
1970-71
500
2002-03
2000-01
1998-99
1996-97
1994-95
1992-93
1990-91
1988-89
1986-87
1984-85
1982-83
1980-81
1978-79
1976-77
1974-75
1972-73
1970-71
Yield (kgs/ha)
DEMAND AND SUPPLY ANALYSIS
Cardamom yield in India
260
210
160
110
60
10
DEMAND AND SUPPLY ANALYSIS
Area under Cardamom Percentage share 2005-06
7%
37%
56%
Kerala
Karnataka
Tamil Nadu
DEMAND AND SUPPLY ANALYSIS
Percentage share in cardamom production 2005-06
8%
14%
78%
Kerala
Karnataka
Tamil Nadu
900
676
2005-06
2004-05
2003-04
1100
2002-03
1500
2001-02
700
2000-01
1999-00
1998-99
1997-98
1996-97
1995-96
1994-95
1700
1993-94
1992-93
1991-92
1990-91
Export quantity (MT)
DEMAND AND SUPPLY ANALYSIS
Exports of cardamom from India
1545
1300
1031
875
650
500
300
100
DEMAND AND SUPPLY ANALYSIS
Percentage consumption
3%
3%
5%
14 %
59%
16 %
West Asia Scandinavia Other EU Countries USA Japan Others
2004-05
2002-03
2000-01
1998-99
1996-97
1994-95
1992-93
1990-91
1988-89
1986-87
1984-85
1982-83
1980-81
1978-79
1976-77
1974-75
1972-73
1970-71
Price (Rs/kg)
PRICE ANALYSIS
Annual auction prices of Cardamom (small) - Kerala
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
PRICE ANALYSIS
Price/Kg
Monthly average prices of Cardamom - Kerala
380
360
340
320
300
280
260
240
220
200
Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
2004-05
Mar
Apr May Jun
Jul
India
Guatemala
2004-05
2003-04
2002-03
2001-02
2000-01
1999-00
1998-99
1997-98
1996-97
1995-96
1994-95
1993-94
1992-93
Price (US$/kg)
PRICE ANALYSIS
Annual average prices of cardamom (small) in Middle East
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
ARRIVAL PATTERN
Harvesting (Picking) pattern in cardamom
Arrivals mainly depends on percentage of picking in the
growing regions
August to September – 25% to 30%
September to October – 30% to 35%
October to November – 20% to 25%
December to January – 10%
WORD OF MOUTH
Factors supporting the price rally
 This year there is a gap of around 40 to 45 days in harvesting
due to dropping (because of rain and wind)
 Production is estimated to be lower by 17% this season
 Increasing export orders from West Asia
 Spurt in domestic demand due to upcoming festivals
 Poor quality crop in Guatemala which is the major competitor
for Indian cardamom in overseas market.
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Daily QMOMc2 [B ar, EMA 10, EMA 20, EMA 50]
[Professional]
5/23/2006 - 10/9/2006 (GMT)
Price
INR
Kg
QMOMc2, Last Trade, Bar
10/5/2006 486.00 499.50 469.50 478.00
QMOMc2, Close(Last Trade), EMA 10
10/5/2006 543.74
QMOMc2, Close(Last Trade), EMA 20
10/5/2006 548.60
QMOMc2, Close(Last Trade), EMA 50
10/5/2006 488.84
640
620
600
580
560
540
520
500
480
460
440
420
400
380
360
340
320
300
280
260
27
02
M ay 0 6
08
14
20
Jun 0 6
26
01
07
13
19
Jul 0 6
25
31
05
11
18
A ug 0 6
24
30
05
11
16
22
Sep 0 6
28
05
PRICE TARGET
Short term
The bearish trend would continue in the short term as it has
broken the 50% retracement (support) of 260-667 move. The
next support is seen around 400-420 levels.
Medium term
Prices are expected to take support around 400 levels and fresh
buying can be seen which may push the prices towards t 520550 then 650 levels.
FACTORS TO BE TAKEN CARE OF…
If rain occurs during October and November in KERALA we
can see fall in the prices as rain will boost the production of
cardamom.
THANK YOU