Transcript THE FAO FISH AND SEAFOOD MODEL

THE FAO FISH AND SEAFOOD
MODEL
PIERRE CHARLEBOIS
5TH AD-HOC FISH PRICE INDEX WORKSHOP
ISCHIA, ITALY, 3RD & 4TH OCTOBER 2013
CONTEXT
• RISING FOOD SECURITY CONCERNS
• GROWING DEMAND FOR HIGHER VALUE
FOOD INCLUDING FISH BY MANY DEVELOPING
COUNTRIES
• OECD/FAO AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK TEAM
SUGGESTED THE ADDITION OF FISH
• ADOPTING THE AGLINK/COSIMO STRUCTURE
AND LEVEL OF AGGREGATION
AGLINK/COSIMO
• DYNAMIC, POLICY SPECIFIC, NON-SPATIAL
PARTIAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL OF KEY
INTERNATIONAL AGRICULTURAL MARKETS
SHARED BY MANY ORGANISATIONS
• 56 COUNTRY/REGION COMPONENTS
• PC-TROLL SOFTWARE
• PRODUCING OUTLOOK AND POLICY AND
MARKET ANALYSES
HISTORY OF THE FISH MODEL
• BUILT IN THE FALL OF 2009 AND WINTER OF 2010
AS A SATELLITE MODEL TO AGLINK/COSIMO
• INTEGRATED IN THE OECD/FAO OUTLOOK
SYSTEM IN 2011 AND PUBLISHED WITH FISH FOR
THE 1ST TIME
• IMPROVED AQUACULTURE SUPPLY ELASTICITIES
INCORPORATED IN 2012
• TWO OTHER FISH OUTLOOK IN 2012 AND 2013
• COMPLETE REVISION OF THE DEMAND
ELASTICITIES AND OF THE FISH MEAL DEMAND
FUNCTION IN 2013
THE FISH MODEL
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1111 EQUATIONS
45 COUNTRY/REGION ENDOGENOUS MODULES
3 PRODUCTS: FISH, FISH MEAL AND FISH OIL
2 SUPPLY FUNCTIONS FOR CAPTURE AND
AQUACULTURE
• ONLY ONE AGGREGATE FISH DEMAND BUT FOR 3
DIFFERENT TYPES OF USES:
- FOOD
- PROCESSED INTO FISH MEAL AND OIL
- OTHER USES
SUPPLY
• CAPTURE BEING CONTROLLED IS KEPT EXOGENOUS FOR MOST COUTRIES
• ENDOGENOUS BUT NO PRICE RESPONSE FOR COUNTRY AFFECTED BY EL
NINO
• ONLY 12% OF WORLD CAPTURE RESPONDS TO PRICE
• 99% OF WORLD AQUACULTURE IS ENDOGENOUS AND RESPONSIVE TO
PRICE OF OUTPUT AND FEED USING RATION SPECIFIC TO SPECIES
• THE PRODUCTION LAG, THE AMOUNT AND TYPE OF FEED OF THE MAIN
AQUACULTURE SPECIES ARE CAPTURED
• FISH MEAL AND OIL SUPPLY MODELLED LIKE OILSEED OIL AND MEAL
– 97% OF WORLD REDUCTION (CRUSH) IS ENDOGENOUS BUT ONLY 37%
RESPONDS TO OUTPUT PRICES AND TO THE OPPORTUNITY COST
REPRESENTED BY THE FISH PRICE
– THE REST IS TIED TO CAPTURE WHICH ARE CONTROLLED AND
EXOGENOUS
– FISH MEAL AND OIL PRODUCTION FROM FISH RESIDUE IS TIED TO FISH
PRODUCTION USED FOR FOOD CONSUMPTION
DEMAND
• OWN PRICE ELASTICITY OF FISH AND SEAFOOD DEMAND IS
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN MEAT IN MOST COUNTRIES
• INCOME ELASTICITY OF FISH AND SEAFOOD DEMAND IS SIMILAR
TO THOSE OF MEATS
• PRICE OF FISH AS AN OPPORTUNITY COST AFFECTS 37% OF WORLD
REDUCTION (CRUSH) DEMAND
• DEMAND FOR OTHER USES IS KEPT EXOGENOUS
• STOCK DEMAND IS IN GENERAL SMALL AND KEPT EXOGENOUS
• DEMAND FOR FISH OIL AND MEAL RESPOND TO THE NEED OF
AQUACULTURE, THE OWN PRICE AND THE PRICE OF OILSEED
PRODUCTS
- IN GENERAL THE ESTIMATED ELASTICITIES SHOW STRONG
SUBSTITUTION BETWEEN FISH AND OILSEED PRODUCTS
PRICE DATA
• EXCEPT FOR AQUACULTURE ALL OTHER PRICES
CORRESPOND TO THE VALUE OF TRADE (THE
SUM OF IMPORT AND EXPORT) DIVIDED BY
QUANTITY TRADED FOR COUNTRIES & WORLD
• AQUACULTURE PRICE CORRESPONDS TO PER
UNIT VALUE OF PRODUCTION
• WORLD PRICE OF CAPTURE IS IS FROM FAO
• CONSUMER PRICES ARE RETAIL PRICES
• PRICE OF FISH OIL AND MEAL ARE NORTHERN
EUROPE
PRICE EQUATIONS
• COUNTRY FISH PRICE IS CALCULATED IN THE DOMESTIC MARKET
CLEARING IDENTITY
• COUNTRY AQUACULTURE PRICE IS TIED TO FISH PRICE AND TO THE
RATIO OF AQUACULTURE TO TOTAL PRODUCTION
• DOMESTIC FISH MEAL AND OIL PRICES ARE CALCULATED IN A PRICE
TRANSMISSION EQUATION
• CONSUMER PRICE IS A FUNCTION OF FISH PRICE AND GDPD
DEFLATOR AS A PROXY FOR OTHER COSTS
• WORLD PRICES OF FISH, FISH MEAL AND OILS CLEAR IN THE
IDENTITY BETWEEN TOTAL IMPORTS AND EXPORTS
• WORLD AQUACULTURE PRICE IS CALCULATED FROM THE SUM OF
VALUE OF PRODUCTION AND PRODUCTION
• WORLD CAPTURE PRICE IS CALCULATED USING OVERALL FISH AND
AQUACULTURE PRICE AND THE SHARE OF THE RESPECTIVE
PRODUCTION
TRADE EQUATIONS
• FISH MEAL AND OIL IMPORTS OR EXPORTS ARE
CALCULATED IN THE MARKET CLEARING IDENTITY
• FOR FISH, IMPORTS AND/OR EXPORTS ARE A
FUNCTION OF THE RATIO BETWEEN THE DOMESTIC
PRICE AND TRADED PRICE
- IN THE CASE OF EXPORT, THE TRADED PRICE IS THE
WORLD PRICE IN LOCAL CURRENCY
- IN THE CASE OF IMPORT, THE TRADED PRICE IS THE
WORLD PRICE PLUS TRANSPORT COST PLUS TARIFF IN
LOCAL CURRENCY
- ELASTICITIES WERE ESTIMATED OR CHOSEN TO
INSURE THAT THE TRANSMISSION BETWEEN WORLD
AND DOMESTIC PRICE WAS CONSISTENT WITH THE
CORRELATION COEFFICIENT
RECENT AND NEXT STEPS
• REVISION OF THE FISH MEAL DEMAND
FUNCTION OF AGLINK
• REVISION OF THE FISH DEMAND ELASTICITIES
• REVISION OF THE FISH MEAL DEMAND
FUNCTION OF COSIMO
• INCLUDING THE CONSUMER PRICE OF FISH IN
THE MEAT DEMAND FUNCTIONS
• BUILDING A CONSISTENT DISAGGREGATED
SATELLITE FISH MODEL