Transcript Faculty of Social Sciences

Inside/Outside: 60 Years of Chinese Politics
HKUST: 20-21 August 2009
Beijing and the Myanmar
Problem
Ian Holliday
Introduction
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Rising China: what to do about Myanmar?
Intervention
Arguing about intervention
Arguing about intervention in Myanmar
Chinese intervention in Myanmar
Arguing about Chinese intervention in Myanmar
Conclusion
Intervention
Options confronting both states and non-states:
Coercive
External
Belligerent engagement
Internal
Aggressive pressure
Non-coercive
External
Consensual engagement
Internal
Discursive pressure
Arguing about intervention
• Global debate still inspired by the West
– How relevant to Beijing and Myanmar?
– (a) Relevant because China is now mainstream
– (b) Not relevant because of distinct tradition
• Johnston on Ming strategic culture
– Dominant operational paradigm: hard realpolitik
– Recessive symbolic paradigm: Confucian-Mencian
• Both remain visible today
• They form important links into mainstream debate
Arguing about intervention in Myanmar
• Much debate about intervention
– 1988-1990-2007-2008-2009
• But little consensus
– Belligerent engagement: few proponents
– Aggressive pressure: US, EU, MNCs
– Consensual engagement: UN, some INGOs
– Discursive pressure: ASEAN
Chinese intervention in Myanmar
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Tribute system across many centuries
Some significant tensions 1949-88
Common position 1988-89 and thereafter
Some growing discord in recent years
– Internal issues in Myanmar
– Internal issues in China
– External issues beyond bilateral relations
• Chinese intervention remains low level
– Both state and non-state
Arguing about Chinese intervention in Myanmar
• Should China enhance its intervention?
– Realpolitik reasons?
– Confucian-Mencian reasons?
– Socialization reasons?
• What could Beijing do?
– Short-term: Boost respect for global norms
– Medium-term: Facilitate multiparty talks?
– Long-term: Keep the peace?
Conclusion
• Hard realpolitik strategic culture in China
– No permissible challenge to core interests
• But is Myanmar that kind of issue?
– Can other considerations apply?
• Key event: 2010 general election
– Wait and see attitude on many sides
– Thereafter, both China and the wider world
may need to recalibrate their positions
Thank you!
Thank you for your attention!