Transcript Medium-term costs and co-benefits of greenhouse gas

The GAINS model
Rationale
• Air pollutants and greenhouse gases (GHGs) often stem
from the same sources
• Energy consumption and agricultural activities contribute
large proportions to total emissions
• Changes in energy consumption and agricultural activities
patterns can influence emissions of both air pollutants and
GHGs
• There are physical and economic interactions between
control measures
GAINS: GHG-Air pollution INteractions and Synergies
• Extension of the RAINS integrated assessment model
for air pollution to GHGs
• SO2, NOx, VOC, NH3, PM and
CO2, CH4, N2O, HFC, CFC, SF6
• First implementation for Europe completed,
work on China and India underway,
feasibility study for Latin America completed.
• GHG emissions consistent with UNFCCC,
GHG cost data from reviewed literature,
air pollution and cost data reviewed by European stakeholders
Common issues for emission control strategies
for air pollution and greenhouse gases
• Measures with simultaneous impacts on GHG and
air pollutant emissions
– Synergies from efficiency improvements, increased use of natural gas,
agricultural measures, etc.
– Renewables
– Trade-offs for desulfurization, technology lock-in, etc.
• Bio-fuels
– Combustion in small sources increases PM and
thus causes negative health impacts
– Radiative forcing of incomplete combustion products
(VOC and PM) could compensate effects of C reduction
• Diesel
– Health impacts of PM, radiative impacts of black carbon
• Methane reductions
– Yield multiple benefits on radiative forcing and ozone
The GAINS model: The RAINS multi-pollutant/ multi-effect
framework extended to GHGs
Multiple benefits
Economic synergies between emission control measures
Health
Health impacts:
impacts:
PM
PM
O
O3
PM
PM
SO
SO22
NO
NOxx
VOC
VOC
NH
NH33
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3
Vegetation
Vegetation damage:
damage:
O3
O
3
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Acidification
Acidification
Eutrophication
Eutrophication
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- via OH
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N2O
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CH4
Physical
interactions
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Radiative forcing:
- direct
- via aerosols
CO2
CFCs
HFCs
SF6
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Emission control options considered in GAINS
with country/region-specific application potentials and costs
CO2:
162 options for power plants, transport, industry, domestic
CH4 :
28 options for the gas sector, waste management, enteric fermentation,
manure management, coal mines, rice paddies
N2O :
18 options for arable land and grassland, industry, combustion, health
care, waste treatment
F-gases :
22 options for refrigeration, mobile and stationary air conditioning,
HCFC22 production, primary aluminum production, semiconductor
industry and other sectors
Air pollutants :
~1500 options for SO2, NOx, VOC, NH3, PM
Main mitigation options for CO2
162 options considered in GAINS
• Power plants
– Fuels shift to natural gas and renewables
– Co-generation
– IGCC + carbon capture
• Transport
– More efficient vehicles (hybrid cars)
– Alternative fuels (ethanol, gas, biodiesel, hydrogen)
• Industry
– End-use savings
– Fuel shifts
• Domestic
– Insulation
– Solar, biomass
– Fuel shift to natural gas
Main mitigation options for CH4
28 options considered in GAINS
• Gas sector
– Reduced leakages during gas transmission and distribution
– Flaring instead of venting
• Waste management
– Recycling/composting of biodegradable waste instead of
landfill
– Methane recovery from landfills
• Enteric fermentation
– Dietary changes for cattle coupled with livestock reductions
• Manure management
– Anaerobic digestion plants and stable adaptation
• Coal mines
– Upgraded gas recovery in coal mines
• Rice paddies
– Modified rice strains
Main mitigation options for N2O
18 options considered in GAINS
• Arable land and grassland
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–
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Reduced fertilizer application
Optimal timing of fertilizer application
Nitrification inhibitors
Precision farming
Less use of histosols (peat soils)
• Industry
– Emission controls in adipic acid and nitric acid industry
• Combustion
– Modified fluidized bed combustion
• Health care
– Reduced N2O use
• Waste treatment
– Optimized waste water treatment
Main mitigation options for F-gases
22 options considered in GAINS
• Refrigeration (domestic, commercial, transport and industrial)
– Recollection, alternative refrigerants and good practice
• Mobile and stationary air conditioning
– Alternative refrigerants, process modifications, good practice
• HCFC22 production
– Incineration
• Primary aluminum production
– Conversion to other processes
• Semiconductor industry
– Limited PFC use through alternative processes
• Other sectors
–
–
–
–
SO2 cover for magnesium production
Good practice for gas insulated switchgears
Alternative propellants for foams and aerosols
End of life recollection of SF6
Differences between GAINS and RAINS
in the optimization (technology representation)
• RAINS optimization:
– Decide how far to move up the cost curve
(keep underlying activity fix!)
– Exclude multi-pollutant technologies
• GAINS optimization
– Decide which technology to use (incl. multi-pollutant)
– If cost-effective and possible, change the underlying activity
(through e.g. efficiency improvement)
The GAINS optimization in brief
Objective function: Minimization of total emission control costs C for
add-on measures (x) and structural changes (y):
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
C     cix,k ,m  xi ,k ,m   ciy,k ,k ' yi ,k ,k ' 
i ,k  m
k'

Application levels (x) and substitution potentials (y) are constrained:
max
yimin

y

y
,k ,k '
i ,k ,k '
i ,k ,k '
xi ,k ,m  applimax
,k ,m xi ,k
Emissions are calculated from activity levels and emission factors:
Ei , p   ef i ,k ,m, p  xi ,k ,m
k
m
Sectoral emissions of current legislation may not increase:
 ef
i ,k , m , p
 xi ,k ,m  IEFi CLE
,k , p  x i ,k
m
Activity levels plus substitution levels must remain constant to satisfy
demand:
xi ,k   yi ,k ,k '  i ,k ,' k  yi ,k ,' k  xiCLE
,k
k'
k'
Multi-pollutant measures (1)
• Structural measures:
– Energy savings, efficiency improvements, bans: all pollutants ↓
– Increased use of natural gas: CO2, SO2, VOC, NOx, PM ↓ CH4 ↑
– Biomass: CO2 ↓ VOC, PM, CH4 ↑
• Stationary sources:
–
–
–
–
–
–
SCR, SNCR: NOx, CO ↓, NH3, N2O ↑
Fluidized bed combustion: SO2, NOx↓, N2O ↑
Advanced residential combustion: VOC, PM, CO, CH4 ↓
FGD: SO2, PM ↓ CO2 ↑
IGCC: CO2, SO2, NOx, PM ↓
CHP: all pollutants ↓
• Mobile sources:
– Euro-standards: NOx, VOC, PM, CO ↓ NH3, N2O ↑
– Low sulfur fuels: SO2, PM ↓
– Diesel: CO2, VOC↓, PM, NOx, SO2 ↑
Multi-pollutant measures (2)
• Agricultural sources:
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Low emission pig housing – NH3, CH4 ↓ N2O ↑
Covered storage of slurry – NH3 ↓ CH4 ↑
Injection of manure – NH3 ↓ N2O ↑
Anaerobic digestion (biogas) – CH4, N2O ↓ CO2 ↑ NH3 ↓↑
• Other sources
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–
–
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Gas recovery and flaring: CH4 ↓ CO2, PM, VOC, SO2, NOx, CO ↑
Gas recovery and re-use: CH4 ↓ CO2 ↑
Improving flaring efficiency: PM, VOC, NOx, SO2, CO ↓
Waste incineration: CH4 ↓ CO2 ↑
Gas recovery from wastewater treatment: CH4 ↓ CO2 ↑
In total approx 500 measures with multi-pollutant impacts considered
in GAINS
Air pollutant emissions as a function of CO2 mitigation
(EU-25, 2020)
Air pollutant emissions relative to a 0€ case
120%
National NEC
projections
110%
0€
100%
90%
20 €
80%
CAFE BL
70%
90 €
60%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
CO2 emissions relative to the UNFCCC baseyear emissions
SO2
NOx
PM25
105%
Net costs for further air pollution control
as a function of CO2 mitigation (EU-25, 2020) - Sequential approach
25
Sequential approach:
Climate policy first –
then air pollution control
on the resulting energy pattern
20
Billion €/yr
15
Baseline
10
5
0
Ambition level of
Thematic Strategy
-5
-10
95
100
105
110
115
Health target (million life years lost)
Benchmark
Benchmark
-5%
Benchmark
GHGs
-5%
Benchmark
GHGs
-10%
-5%
Benchmark
GHGs
-10%
-5% GHGs
-15%
-10% GHGs
-15% GHGs
-20% GHGs
No constraint
Cost savings from an integrated approach
Provisional GAINS estimates, EU-25, 2020
25
Integrated approach:
Joint optimization of GHG and
air pollution control
20
Billion €/yr
15
Baseline
10
5
0
Ambition level of
Thematic Strategy
-5
-10
95
100
105
110
115
No constraint
Health target (million life years lost)
BenchmarkBenchmark
-5% GHGs
-5% GHGs
-10% GHGs
-10% GHGs
-15% -20%
GHGsGHGs -20% GHGs
Plans for further work on GAINS
• Improved interface between PRIMES and GAINS
• Improved representation of the nitrogen cycle
• Including the role of agricultural policies as “surface
response” representation of selected CAPRI scenarios
• Quantification of radiatiave forcing (of aerosols)
• Simulation of economic instruments
• Extension to Asia and other regions