Transcript CO 2 - IIASA

Markus Amann
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Future challenges for
integrated assessment modelling
Historic SO2, NOx and NH3 emissions
1880-1985, EU-25
70
60
Million tons
50
40
30
20
10
0
1880
1890
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
SO2
SO2
1950
1960
NOx
NOx NH3
NH3
1970
1980
1990
2000
/dev/tty>
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
RAINS 1.1 (1984)
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III
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III
NN
N
N N
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N N N
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N N
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Please treat all results with caution!
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20 years assessment of forest soil acidification
1984 and 2004
Percentage of forest area
with acid deposition
above critical loads
1984: RAINS 1.1 assessment for 2010
2004: CAFE assessment for 2010
Historic SO2, NOx and NH3 emissions
1880-2005, EU-25
70
60
Million tons
50
40
30
20
10
0
1880
1890
1900
1910
1920
1930
SO2
1940
1950
NOx
1960
NH3
1970
1980
1990
2000
Functions of integrated assessment models (1)
• Integration over cause-effects chain
– Multi-disciplinary approach (since RAINS 1.1)
• Balancing of measures
– Cost-effectiveness optimization (since 2nd Sulphur Protocol)
• Integration over multiple benefits
– Multi-effect approach (since Gothenburg-protocol)
• Integration over scales
– Inclusion of health impacts (since CAFE)
Functions of integrated assessment models
• Integration over cause-effects chain
– Multi-disciplinary approach (since RAINS 1.1)
• Balancing of measures
– Cost-effectiveness optimization (since 2nd Sulphur Protocol)
• Integration over multiple benefits
– Multi-effect approach (since Gothenburg-protocol)
• Integration over scales
– Inclusion of health impacts (since CAFE)
• Integration of multiple policy areas
– Link to climate policy, agriculture
Multi-pollutant measures (1)
• Structural measures:
– Energy savings, efficiency improvements, bans: all pollutants ↓
– Increased use of natural gas: CO2, SO2, VOC, NOx, PM ↓ CH4 ↑
– Biomass: CO2 ↓ VOC, PM, CH4 ↑
• Stationary sources:
–
–
–
–
–
–
SCR, SNCR: NOx, CO ↓, NH3, N2O, CO2 ↑
Fluidized bed combustion: SO2, NOx↓, N2O ↑
Advanced residential combustion: VOC, PM, CO, CH4 ↓
FGD: SO2, PM ↓ CO2 ↑
IGCC: CO2, SO2, NOx, PM ↓
CHP: all pollutants ↓
• Mobile sources:
– Euro-standards: NOx, VOC, PM, CO ↓ NH3, N2O ↑
– Low sulfur fuels: SO2, PM ↓
– Diesel: CO2, VOC↓, PM, NOx, SO2 ↑
Multi-pollutant measures (2)
• Agricultural sources:
–
–
–
–
Low emission pig housing – NH3, CH4 ↓ N2O ↑
Covered storage of slurry – NH3 ↓ CH4 ↑
Injection of manure – NH3 ↓ N2O ↑
Anaerobic digestion (biogas) – CH4, N2O ↓ CO2 ↑ NH3 ↓↑
• Other sources
–
–
–
–
–
Gas recovery and flaring: CH4 ↓ CO2, PM, VOC, SO2, NOx, CO ↑
Gas recovery and re-use: CH4 ↓ CO2 ↑
Improving flaring efficiency: PM, VOC, NOx, SO2, CO ↓
Waste incineration: CH4 ↓ CO2 ↑
Gas recovery from wastewater treatment: CH4 ↓ CO2 ↑
In total approx 500 measures with multi-pollutant impacts considered
in GAINS
Air pollutant emissions
as a function of CO2 mitigation
Air pollutant emissions relative to a 0€ case
120%
National NEC
projections
110%
0€
100%
90%
20 €
80%
CAFE BL
70%
90 €
60%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
CO2 emissions relative to the UNFCCC baseyear emissions
EU-25, 2020
SO2
NOx
PM25
105%
Net costs for further air pollution control
as a function of CO2 mitigation
25
20
Billion €/yr
15
10
5
0
-5
Ambition level of
Thematic Strategy
-10
95
100
105
110
Health target (million life years lost)
Benchmark
Benchmark
-20% GHGs
115
No constraint
Population, GDP and coal use for power generation
in Andra Pradesh (projection provided by TERI)
1200%
1100%
1000%
900%
relative to 2000
800%
700%
600%
500%
400%
300%
200%
100%
0%
2000
2005
2010
Population
2015
GDP
2020
2025
Coal use for power generation
2030
Emissions from electricity generation
Andra Pradesh, 2020, relative to 2000
With current emission standards
800%
Emissions relative to year 2000
700%
With advanced
end-of-pipe emission
control technologies
600%
500%
400%
300%
200%
Level in 2000
100%
0%
PM10
SO2
Coal with current air pollution (AP) standards
Max. wind+hydro & advanced AP controls
IGCC + carbon capture
NOx
CO2
Coal + advanced air pollution control
With IGCC for new plants after 2015
Costs of electricity generation
Andra Pradesh, 2020
15
13
Billion $/year
10
8
5
3
0
Coal with current AP
standards
IGCC
Coal costs
Coal + advanced air
pollution control
PM control
SO2 control
Max. wind+hydro
NOx control
Wind
IGCC after 2015
Small hydropower
Emissions from electricity generation
Andra Pradesh, 2020, relative to 2000
with IGCC at new plants after 2015 (without carbon capture)
800%
Emissions relative to year 2000
700%
600%
500%
400%
300%
200%
100%
0%
PM10
SO2
Coal with current air pollution (AP) standards
Max. wind+hydro & advanced AP controls
IGCC + carbon capture
NOx
CO2
Coal + advanced air pollution control
With IGCC for new plants after 2015
Costs of electricity generation
Andra Pradesh, 2020
15
Uncertainty range
quoted by IPCC
13
Billion $/year
10
8
5
3
0
Conv. coal with current
AP standards
IGCC
Coal costs
Coal + advanced air
pollution control
PM control
SO2 control
Max. wind+hydro
With IGCC for new plants
after 2015
NOx control
Small hydropower
Wind
Expected impacts of the Nitrate Directive
and optimized feed on EU-25 NH3 emissions
4
NEC baseline as of
December 2006
3.5
With full
implementation of
nitrate directive
With nitrate
directive and low N
feed
3
2.5
2
2000
CLE 2020
Target
indicated in
TSAP
Functions of integrated assessment models
• Integration over cause-effects chain
– Multi-disciplinary approach (since RAINS 1.1)
• Balancing of measures
– Cost-effectiveness optimization (since 2nd Sulphur Protocol)
• Integration over multiple benefits
– Multi-effect approach (since Gothenburg-protocol)
• Integration over scales
– Inclusion of health impacts (since CAFE)
• Integration of multiple policy areas
– Link to climate policy, agriculture
• Integration with economic impacts
– More comprehensive quantification of human welfare
Per-capita NOx emissions
1940-2000
100
1970
North America
kg NOx/capita
75
2000
1940
50
Russia
1990
Europe
1960
25
2000
2000
East Asia
South Asia
0
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
Per-capita income ($/capita), PPP
25000
30000
35000
Per-capita NOx emissions
1940-2030
100
1970
North America
kg NOx/capita
75
2000
1940
50
Russia
Europe
1960
25
2030
2000
2000
2030
East Asia
South Asia
0
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
Per-capita income ($/capita), PPP
25000
30000
35000
Integrating economic development
not as a slide
• Conventional cost concept considers investments in clean air as a
welfare loss – heavy argument in policy debate (e.g., EU for CAFE,
developing countries, US for climate)
– Not all investments do lead to loss in GDP (recycling)
– Non-monetary aspects of welfare excluded
• Integrated assessment can come up with additional quantified
indicators that constitute parts of welfare (life expectancy,
nitrogen pollution in water, etc.)
• Not necessarily based on monetary evaluation of benefits
• This could eventually allow a more comprehensive measure for
welfare – and a re-evaluation of the value of environmental
investments
Conclusions