Transcript Predicting trends in fatal drug overdoses in Ireland: does

Predicting trends in fatal drug
overdoses in Ireland: does day
of the week matter?
Simone Walsh, Ena Lynn and
Suzi Lyons
NDRDI Background
• National Drug-Related Deaths Index (NDRDI)
established in 2005
• Funded by Dept. of Health and Dept. of Justice
and Equality
• European Monitoring Centre for Drugs and Drug
Addiction (EMCDDA)
Overview
• 2,734 individuals died between 1998 and 2009
of a fatal drug overdose (poisoning) in Ireland
•
•
•
•
Age and Gender
Significant Events (Christmas, St Patricks Day)
Substance involved and route of administration
Who deceased was with and where they were at the
time of death
All NDRDI Poisoning Deaths
1998 to 2009
All NDRDI poisoning deaths 1998 to 2009,
by day of the week, n=2734
500
450
400
350
Number
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Monday
Tuesday
Wednesday
Thursday
Friday
Saturday
Sunday
Day Of The Week
5
All NDRDI poisoning deaths 1998 to 2009,
gender by day of the week, n=2734
18.0%
16.0%
14.0%
Percentage
12.0%
10.0%
Male
8.0%
Female
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
.0%
Monday
Tuesday
Wednesday
Thursday
Friday
Saturday
Sunday
Day Of The Week
6
All NDRDI poisoning deaths 1998 to 2009,
median age by day of the week, n=2734
Day of the Week
Median Age
Monday
35
Tuesday
35
Wednesday
36
Thursday
35
Friday
35
Saturday
34
Sunday
33
7
All NDRDI poisoning deaths 1998 to 2009,
median age by day of the week, n=2734
Day of the Week
Median Age
Monday
35
Tuesday
35
Wednesday
36
Thursday
35
Friday
35
Saturday
34
Sunday
33
8
All NDRDI poisoning deaths 1998 to 2009,
median age by day of the week, n=2734
Day of the Week
Median Age
Monday
35
Tuesday
35
Wednesday
36
Thursday
35
Friday
35
Saturday
34
Sunday
33
9
All Cocaine Poisonings NDRDI
1998 to 2009
All cocaine poisoning deaths 1998 to 2009,
by day of the week, n=318
70
60
Number
50
40
30
20
10
0
Monday
Tuesday
Wednesday
Thursday
Friday
Saturday
Sunday
Day Of The Week
11
Cocaine Poisonings Excluding Opiates
NDRDI, 1998 to 2009
Cocaine poisonings excluding opiates 1998 to 2009,
by day of the week n=146
35
30
25
Nimber
20
15
10
5
0
Monday
Tuesday
Wednesday
Thursday
Friday
Saturday
Sunday
Day Of The Week
13
Cocaine poisonings excluding opiates 1998 to 2009,
gender by day of the week n=146
35.0%
30.0%
Percentage
25.0%
20.0%
Male
15.0%
Female
10.0%
5.0%
.0%
Monday
Tuesday
Wednesday
Thursday
Day Of The Week
Friday
Saturday
Sunday
14
Cocaine poisonings excluding opiates 1998 to 2009,
who with by day of the week n=146
90.0%
80.0%
70.0%
Percentage
60.0%
50.0%
Alone
40.0%
With Someone
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
.0%
Monday
Tuesday
Wednesday
Thursday
Friday
Saturday
Sunday
Day Of The Week
15
Heroin Poisonings NDRDI
1998 to 2009
Heroin poisoning deaths 1998 to 2009,
by day of the week, NDRDI n=643
120
100
Number
80
60
40
20
0
Monday
Tuesday
Wednesday
Thursday
Friday
Saturday
Sunday
Day Of The Week
17
Non-injecting Heroin Poisoning Deaths
NDRDI,1998 to 2009
Non-injecting heroin poisoning deaths 1998 to 2009,
by day of the week, n=234
50
45
40
35
Number
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Monday
Tuesday
Wednesday
Thursday
Friday
Saturday
Sunday
Day Of The Week
19
Non-injecting heroin poisoning deaths 1998 to 2009,
gender by day of the week, n=234
30.0%
25.0%
Percentage
20.0%
15.0%
Male
Female
10.0%
5.0%
.0%
Monday
Tuesday
Wednesday
Thursday
Friday
Saturday
Sunday
Day Of The Week
20
Non-injecting heroin poisoning deaths 1998 to 2009,
median age by day of the week, n=234
Day of The Week
Median Age
Monday
Tuesday
Wednesday
Thursday
Friday
Saturday
Sunday
31
28
30
29
28
27
29
21
Non-injecting heroin poisoning deaths 1998 to 2009,
median age by day of the week, n=234
Day of The Week
Median Age
Monday
Tuesday
Wednesday
Thursday
Friday
Saturday
Sunday
31
28
30
29
28
27
29
22
Non-injecting heroin poisoning deaths 1998 to 2009,
median age by day of the week, n=234
Day of The Week
Median Age
Monday
Tuesday
Wednesday
Thursday
Friday
Saturday
Sunday
31
28
30
29
28
27
29
23
Non-injecting heroin poisoning deaths 1998 to 2009,
who with at time of death, n=234
80.0%
70.0%
60.0%
Percentage
50.0%
40.0%
Alone
Withsomeone
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
.0%
Monday
Tuesday
Wednesday
Thursday
Friday
Saturday
Sunday
Day of the Week
24
Injecting Heroin Poisoning Deaths
NDRDI 1998 to 2009
Injecting heroin poisoning deaths 1998 to 2009,
by day of the week, n=405
80
70
60
Number
50
40
30
20
10
0
Monday
Tuesday
Wednesday
Thursday
Friday
Saturday
Sunday
Day Of The Week
26
Injecting heroin poisoning deaths 1998 to 2009,
by gender and day of the week, n=405
35.0%
30.0%
Percentage
25.0%
20.0%
Male
15.0%
Female
10.0%
5.0%
.0%
Monday
Tuesday
Wednesday
Thursday
Friday
Saturday
Sunday
Day Of The Week
27
Injecting heroin poisoning deaths 1998 to 2009,
median age by day of the week, n=405
Day of the Week
Median Age
Monday
31
Tuesday
32
Wednesday
33
Thursday
31
Friday
31
Saturday
27
Sunday
25
28
Injecting heroin poisoning deaths 1998 to 2009,
median age by day of the week, n=405
Day of the Week
Median Age
Monday
31
Tuesday
32
Wednesday
33
Thursday
31
Friday
31
Saturday
27
Sunday
25
29
Injecting heroin poisoning deaths 1998 to 2009,
median age by day of the week, n=405
Day of the Week
Median Age
Monday
31
Tuesday
32
Wednesday
33
Thursday
31
Friday
31
Saturday
27
Sunday
25
30
Injecting heroin poisoning deaths 1998 to 2009,
who with at time of death, n=405
70.0%
60.0%
Percentage
50.0%
40.0%
Alone
30.0%
With Someone
20.0%
10.0%
.0%
Monday
Tuesday
Wednesday
Thursday
Friday
Saturday
Sunday
Day Of The Week
31
Injecting heroin poisoning deaths 1998 to 2009,
who with at time of death, n=405
70.0%
60.0%
Percentage
50.0%
40.0%
Alone
30.0%
With Someone
20.0%
10.0%
.0%
Monday
Tuesday
Wednesday
Thursday
Friday
Saturday
Sunday
Day Of The Week
32
All NDRDI Deaths by Week of the Month
NDRDI, 1998 to 2009
All NDRDI deaths by week of the month,
1998 to 2009, n = 2,734
35.0%
30.0%
Percentage
25.0%
20.0%
First
Second
15.0%
Third
Fourth
10.0%
5.0%
.0%
Monday
Tuesday
Wednesday
Thursday
Friday
Saturday
Sunday
Grouped day of the week
34
All female NDRDI poisoning deaths Tuesday and
Wednesday n=220
40.0%
35.0%
30.0%
Percentage
25.0%
20.0%
Tuesday
Wednesday
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
.0%
First
Second
Third
Fourth
Grouped day of the week
35
All female NDRDI poisoning deaths Tuesday and
Wednesday n=220
40.0%
35.0%
30.0%
Percentage
25.0%
20.0%
Tuesday
Wednesday
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
.0%
First
Second
Third
Fourth
Grouped day of the week
36
Findings
• Delivering harm reduction messages and treatment
outcomes - day of the week does matter
• Subgroups within the drug using population are at
risk different times of the week or month
• Opportunity to save a life