Transcript Paul Hillier - SaferRoads Conference

‘Data Led, Experienced Tuned’ – Developing an
Effective Local Skid Resistance Management Strategy
3rd International Road Surface Friction Conference 2011
Paul Hillier, ARRB Group, Australia
Presentation outline
• Introduction – the challenge faced
• The value of data (e.g. Organisational Governance Model)
• ‘Data mining’
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Austroads Guide (Jan 2005) – strategy framework
Where does data come in?
Limitations of data
Local experience as a fine tuning tool
• Closing thoughts
www.arrb.com.au
Building on 50 years of road research
The challenge faced …..
Identifying, collecting &
analysing available data
www.arrb.com.au
Local knowledge
and experience
Building on 50 years of road research
Organisational Governance Model –
The Key Elements
Organisational Governance Model (OGM)
Objective
Data
Knowledge
Tools
Skills
Plan
Success
Data
Knowledge
Tools
Skills
Plan
Confusion
Tools
Skills
Plan
False Picture
Skills
Plan
Frustration
Plan
Anxiety
Objective
Objective
Data
Knowledge
Objective
Data
Knowledge
Tools
Objective
Data
Knowledge
Tools
Skills
False Start
29
9
www.arrb.com.au
Building on 50 years of road research
Organisational Governance Model –
The Key Elements
Organisational Governance Model (OGM)
Objective
Data
Knowledge
Tools
Skills
Plan
Success
Data
Knowledge
Tools
Skills
Plan
Confusion
Tools
Skills
Plan
False Picture
Skills
Plan
Frustration
Plan
Anxiety
Objective
Objective
Data
Knowledge
Objective
Data
Knowledge
Tools
Objective
Data
Knowledge
Tools
Skills
False Start
29
9
www.arrb.com.au
Building on 50 years of road research
Data mining …… a simplistic view
Available
Data
Facts and
Knowledge
www.arrb.com.au
Building on 50 years of road research
Data mining …… a simplistic view
Available
Data
Facts and
Knowledge
www.arrb.com.au
Decisions
Building on 50 years of road research
Data as our comfort blanket?
• We are very comfortable as engineers making decisions on data
• It makes sense…….
• But what if we can’t afford to collect it?
• Or fail to recognise that we do not have the full / current picture?
• How do we integrate practical experience?
• We’ll come back to this…….
www.arrb.com.au
Building on 50 years of road research
Focus on Skid Resistance Strategies
www.arrb.com.au
Building on 50 years of road research
Austroads Guide – Jan 2005
www.arrb.com.au
Building on 50 years of road research
Austroads Guide – Jan 2005
www.arrb.com.au
Building on 50 years of road research
Austroads 2011 (AT 1131) – data usage
• Determining zones of skid resistance demand
• Determining testing regime
• Setting ILs from first principles (crash rates)
• Periodic review and update of ILs
• Identifying and prioritising sites for further investigation
www.arrb.com.au
Building on 50 years of road research
Limitations of data
• Generic
• Specific -in managing skid resistance
www.arrb.com.au
Building on 50 years of road research
Generic limitations of data
• Can include:
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is not available (or limited availability)
‘ageing’ – network changes have occurred
collected by a device out of calibration / maintenance
collected by a device that is now superseded
data appears (or is obviously) erroneous, skewed or unrepresentative
data has processing / collation and/or display errors
is too limited to permit patterns and trends to be identified
gaps in data are significant
data has been previously partially processed or filtered
‘raw’ data can no longer be processed as software etc not available
– And what if we don’t recognise any shortfalls?
– Danger of ‘rubbish in, rubbish out’?
www.arrb.com.au
Building on 50 years of road research
Specific limitations of data – Skid Resistance
• Author’s position - use data wherever possible (and applicable)!
• But understand / accept limitations:
– historical rationale (comparing road sections)
– ‘snap shot in time’ concept
– crash data: no. of incidents low + v.difficult establishing causation
www.arrb.com.au
Building on 50 years of road research
Importance of local experience as a fine tuning tool
• Will help ensure that the strategy:
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is achievable within current resources
meets local conditions and challenges
will make a difference operationally
meets corporate & operational objectives
– ‘will fly’ (is implemented)
– is ‘owned’ locally
– will be continually improved
www.arrb.com.au
Building on 50 years of road research
Closing Thoughts
www.arrb.com.au
Building on 50 years of road research
Author’s experience (skid resistance)
• Use data in forming strategy and making policy decisions
• But, understand its possible limitations
• Ignore local practical (delivery) experience at your peril
• Involve a number of people – explain the corporate position
and requirements, but also understand their local position
• Get many views - collate them / analyse them
• Vital for credibility, ownership and achievability
• Don’t forget the roll out and training regime
www.arrb.com.au
Building on 50 years of road research