Transcript EXPERIMENTAL PROBABILITY

EXPERIMENTAL
PROBABILITY
Experimental Probability
Probability that is based on an “experiment”
Something must have been done.
Experimental Probability
Number of times the event occurs
Probability =
Number of times the experiment is done
Examples
You toss a coin 10 times and get 4 tails. What is
the experimental probability?
Examples
You toss a coin 10 times and get 4 tails. What is
the experimental probability?
4
10
Examples
An experimental drug is tested on 2000
people and is effective on 1831 of them.
A. Find the experimental probability.
B. Predict the number of people in a group
of 5000 that this drug would be effective
on.
Examples
An experimental drug is tested on 2000 people
and is effective on 1831 of them.
A. Find the experimental probability.
Examples
An experimental drug is tested on 2000 people
and is effective on 1831 of them.
A. Find the experimental probability.
1831
2000
Examples
An experimental drug is tested on 2000 people
and is effective on 1831 of them.
B. Predict the number of people in a group of
5000 that this drug would be effective on.
Examples
An experimental drug is tested on 2000 people
and is effective on 1831 of them.
B. Predict the number of people in a group of
5000 that this drug would be effective on.
1831

2000
Examples
An experimental drug is tested on 2000 people
and is effective on 1831 of them.
B. Predict the number of people in a group of
5000 that this drug would be effective on.
1831
x

2000 5000
Examples
An experimental drug is tested on 2000 people
and is effective on 1831 of them.
B. Predict the number of people in a group of
5000 that this drug would be effective on.
1831
x

2000 5000
1831(5000)  2000 x
Examples
An experimental drug is tested on 2000 people
and is effective on 1831 of them.
B. Predict the number of people in a group of
5000 that this drug would be effective on.
1831
x

2000 5000
1831(5000)  2000 x
4577.5  x
Examples
An experimental drug is tested on 2000 people
and is effective on 1831 of them.
B. Predict the number of people in a group of
5000 that this drug would be effective on.
1831
x

2000 5000
1831(5000)  2000 x
4577.5  x
~ 4578 people
Simulation
Model used to find the experimental
probability
Example
You toss a coin 45 times and get 29 tails.
A. According to theoretical probability, how many
tails should you get?
B. What is the experimental probability?
C. Predict using both theoretical and experimental
probability the number of tails you could expect
to get after tossing a coin 325 times.
Example
You toss a coin 45 times and get 29 tails.
A. According to theoretical probability, how many
tails should you get?
Example
You toss a coin 45 times and get 29 tails.
A. According to theoretical probability, how many
tails should you get?
1
(45) 
2
Example
You toss a coin 45 times and get 29 tails.
A. According to theoretical probability, how many
tails should you get?
1
(45)  22.5
2
Example
You toss a coin 45 times and get 29 tails.
A. According to theoretical probability, how many
tails should you get?
1
(45)  22.5 ~ 22 or 23
2
Example
You toss a coin 45 times and get 29 tails.
B. What is the experimental probability?
Example
You toss a coin 45 times and get 29 tails.
B. What is the experimental probability?
29
45
Example
You toss a coin 45 times and get 29 tails.
C. Predict using both theoretical and experimental
probability the number of tails you could expect to get
after tossing a coin 325 times.
Theoretical:
Experimental:
Example
You toss a coin 45 times and get 29 tails.
C. Predict using both theoretical and experimental
probability the number of tails you could expect to get
after tossing a coin 325 times.
Theoretical:
Experimental:
1
(325) 
2
Example
You toss a coin 45 times and get 29 tails.
C. Predict using both theoretical and experimental
probability the number of tails you could expect to get
after tossing a coin 325 times.
Theoretical:
Experimental:
1
(325)  162.5
2
Example
You toss a coin 45 times and get 29 tails.
C. Predict using both theoretical and experimental
probability the number of tails you could expect to get
after tossing a coin 325 times.
Theoretical:
Experimental:
1
(325)  162.5 ~ 163
2
Example
You toss a coin 45 times and get 29 tails.
C. Predict using both theoretical and experimental
probability the number of tails you could expect to get
after tossing a coin 325 times.
Theoretical:
Experimental:
1
(325)  162.5 ~ 163
2
Example
You toss a coin 45 times and get 29 tails.
C. Predict using both theoretical and experimental
probability the number of tails you could expect to get
after tossing a coin 325 times.
Theoretical:
1
(325)  162.5 ~ 163
2
29

45
Experimental:
Example
You toss a coin 45 times and get 29 tails.
C. Predict using both theoretical and experimental
probability the number of tails you could expect to get
after tossing a coin 325 times.
Theoretical:
Experimental:
1
(325)  162.5 ~ 163
2
29
x

45 325
Example
You toss a coin 45 times and get 29 tails.
C. Predict using both theoretical and experimental
probability the number of tails you could expect to get
after tossing a coin 325 times.
Theoretical:
Experimental:
1
(325)  162.5 ~ 163
2
29
x

45 325
29(325)  45 x
Example
You toss a coin 45 times and get 29 tails.
C. Predict using both theoretical and experimental
probability the number of tails you could expect to get
after tossing a coin 325 times.
Theoretical:
Experimental:
1
(325)  162.5 ~ 163
2
29
x

45 325
29(325)  45 x
209.4  x
Example
You toss a coin 45 times and get 29 tails.
C. Predict using both theoretical and experimental
probability the number of tails you could expect to get
after tossing a coin 325 times.
Theoretical:
Experimental:
1
(325)  162.5 ~ 163
2
29
x

45 325
29(325)  45 x
209.4  x
209
ASSIGNMENT
12.7: 1 - 15