Transcript Trends in Homicide in the United States

Trends in Homicide
in the United States
by Fulano de Tal
Trends in Twentieth Century
• Two Sharp Peaks
– during alcohol prohibition
– during drug prohibition
• High unemployment also correlates with
high homicide rates
• The decline in homicide in the 1990s
corresponds to a period of declining gun
ownership
HOMICIDE
11
1
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
• The first increase was during alcohol
prohibition
• The second was during drug prohibition
• The recent decline, however, is during a
period of continuing drug prohibition
UNEMP MALE
UNEMP FEM
9
2
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
• There was a increase in unemployment in the
1970s and early 1980s when homicide increased
• This was true for men and women
• Unemployment declined in the 1990s as the
homicide rate declined.
• The 1930s was also a period of high
unemployment
Correlation Between Unemployment
Rates and Homicide Rates
• Homicide rates and
unemployment rates
are positively
correlated
• This is true for both
men and women
• Data are for 53 years
1
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
Men
Women
Correlation
Coefficients
OWNGUNGSS
51
32
1980
1990
2000
• Gun ownership also declined during the
1990s when homicide and other crime
rates declined
Conclusions
• Vigorous efforts to enforce prohibition of
drugs or alcohol may lead to higher
homicide rates
• Higher unemployment rates may lead to
increased homicide rates
• Cutting the number of households with
guns may cut homicide rates