Transcript Comparing different treatments

The
Survival
Game
Can you make sure everyone
stays alive and well?
The Survival Game
• There is an outbreak of a new, potentially fatal
virus.
• It can be treated with Drug A or, more
successfully, with Drug B.
• Your job is to keep 12 people alive and in good
health
– initially they are susceptible to the virus
– if they get the virus and recover, then they are
immune to further infection
The Survival Game
• The winner is the person who keeps the most
people alive and in good health …
… without going over budget!
Your Budget
• Each of you has a
budget of 100 sims.
• The Treatment Table
shows the cost of
using Drugs A and B
to treat people who
are sick.
• If you run out of sims,
you can’t treat
anyone further.
– other than the cost of
their treatment if they
die.
Treatment
Cost if person
Cost if
survives the person dies
year
during the
year
Drug A
4
6
Drug B
8
n/a
None
n/a
2
Getting started …
• To see what happens to each person each
year, you will throw a die.
• Suppose we throw the die for Anna, and we
get a 2.
• To find out what that means, we use the
Outcome Diagram for someone who was
previously healthy.
2 thrown on
the die.
So Anna stays
well and
there is no
cost.
Previously
healthy
Year 1, Anna
1
Well
2
Well
3
Well
4
Well
5
Sick
6
Sick
• We record that Anna needs no treatment, and
therefore that there is no cost, on the Survival
Grid.
The Survival Grid
-
-
• Next we throw the die for the second person,
Ben.
• Suppose this time we get a 6.
6 on the die, means
Ben becomes
sick.
You decide to treat
him with Drug B.
The cost is 8 sims.
Previously
healthy
You don’t all have to
choose the same
treatment!
Each player makes their
own independent
decision.
Year 1, Ben
1
Well
2
Well
3
Well
4
Well
5
Sick
6
Sick
• We need to show this on the Survival Grid.
The Survival Grid
B
8
Next, a 5 on the die,
means Chloe
becomes sick.
This time, you decide
to use Drug A.
The cost is 4 sims.
Previously
healthy
Year 1, Chloe
1
Well
2
Well
3
Well
4
Well
5
Sick
6
Sick
Year 1
B
A
8
4
End of year 1
• After you’ve thrown the die for all 12 people,
and recorded any treatment you give them
and the cost
– add up the total cost for the year
– and check how much you still have left in your
budget
End of year 1
B
A
A
A
B
-
8
4
4
4
8
32
32
68
• Then move onto Year 2.
A 3 on the die,
means
Anna stays
well and
there is no
cost.
Previously
healthy
Year 2, Anna
1
Well
2
Well
3
Well
4
Well
5
Ill
6
Ill
Die gives a 2.
Using the Outcome
Diagram for Drug
B, you see that
Ben recovers.
Sick – on
drug B
Ben is now immune, so
will stay healthy from
now on.
Year 2, Ben
1
Recovers
2
Recovers
3
Recovers
4
Sick
5
Sick
6
Sick
6 on the die.
Using the Outcome
Diagram for Drug
A, you see that
sadly Chloe dies.
The cost is 6 sims.
Year 2, Chloe
1
Recovers
2
Recovers
3
Sick
4
Sick
5
Sick
6
Dies
Drug A
The cost is greater this
time because Chloe
would have needed
hospital care.
Year 2
B
A
A
A
B
-
8
4
4
4
8
32
32
68
Im
D
6
End of Year 2
B
A
A
A
A
B
-
8
4
4
4
4
8
32
32
68
Im
D
B
A
Im
A
B
-
6
8
4
4
8
30
62
38
Year 3
• Let’s suppose that at the end of year 3 you
only have 2 sims left …
End of Year 3
B
A
A
A
A
B
-
8
4
4
4
4
8
32
32
68
Im
D
B
A
Im
A
B
-
6
8
4
4
8
30
62
38
A
Im
D
B
A
B
Im
A
B
-
4
8
4
8
4
8
36
98
2
Year 4
• You have now run out of money, so other than
anyone dying, you cannot treat people further.
• You hope that people will recover and become
immune …
End of year 4
• Most people do recover, but unfortunately
Jack dies and Kaylyn stays sick.
• You lose another 6 sims for Jack’s hospital
treatment.
• You can’t treat Kaylyn any more, she will just
have to take her chances.
End of Year 4
B
A
A
A
A
B
-
8
4
4
4
4
8
32
32
68
Im
D
B
A
Im
A
B
-
6
8
4
4
8
30
62
38
A
Im
D
B
A
B
Im
A
B
-
4
8
4
8
4
8
36
98
2
Im
Im
D
Im
Im
Im
Im
D
NT
-
6
6
104
-4
1 on the die.
Using the Outcome
Diagram for Sick –
no treatment, you
see that
fortunately Kaylyn
recovers.
Sick – no
treatment
Year 5, Kaylyn
1
Recovers
2
Sick
3
Sick
4
Sick
5
Dies
6
Dies
End of Year 5
B
A
A
A
A
B
-
8
4
4
4
4
8
32
32
68
Im
D
B
A
Im
A
B
-
6
8
4
4
8
30
62
38
A
Im
D
B
A
B
Im
A
B
-
4
8
4
8
4
8
36
98
2
Im
Im
D
Im
Im
Im
Im
D
NT
-
6
6
104
-4
Im
Im
D
Im
Im
Im
Im
D
Im
-
0
104
-4
The final outcome
• When you have completed Year 5, fill in the
final column and see how many people you
have managed to keep alive.
• The winner is the player who keeps most
people alive.
• If there is a tie, then the player with the most
healthy people wins
– immune people are healthy, of course, having
recovered.
End of Year 5
B
A
A
A
A
B
-
8
4
4
4
4
8
32
32
68
Im
D
B
A
Im
A
B
-
6
8
4
4
8
30
62
38
A
Im
D
B
A
B
Im
A
B
-
4
8
4
8
4
8
36
98
2
Im
Im
D
Im
Im
Im
Im
D
NT
-
6
6
104
-4
Im
Im
D
Im
Im
Im
Im
D
Im
-
0
104
-4
Im
Im
D
Im
Im
Im
OK
Im
OK
D
Im
OK
The final outcome
• Number of people alive and healthy = 10
• Number of people alive but sick = 0
• Number of deaths = 2
Over to you
• Play in groups of 3 – 5
• You need
– a Survival Grid each
– one copy of the Outcome Diagrams
– one copy of the Example Game if you think you might
need it
– one copy of the rules if you think you might need
them
– a 6-sided die
• Good luck!