Transcript Slide 1

Pub closing times and assault:
Lessons from Newcastle and the
World for Australia
InterGovernmental Committee on Drugs (IGCD)
Stakeholder Meeting on Alcohol Related
Violence and Harm
19 November 2014, Canberra
Kypros Kypri PhD
Centre for Clinical Epidemiology & Biostatistics
School of Medicine and Public Health
Outline
• The Newcastle experiment
~ Background
~ Initial effects
~ Effects 5 years on
• International evidence
1. The Newcastle experiment
• Police and community complain to state govt
about high levels of crime from pubs in the Central
Business District
• Liquor Administration Board requires 14 pubs to
close earlier: 3am (with 1am “lockout” / “one-way
door”) – previously 5am
• Took effect 21 March 2008 (weakened to
3.30am/1.30am on 29 July 2008)
Study aims
• Test the hypothesis that this intervention reduced
the incidence of assault in the Newcastle CBD.
• Investigate geographic (from the CBD to the
nearby control area) and temporal displacement
(to earlier in the evening). [Not addressed today –
see paper]
• Determine whether effects seen in the 1.5 years
post change persisted in the following 3.5 years
(to March 2013)
Methods
Controlled Before and After Design in which the
Central Business District (CBD) was the
intervention area and a nearby area with similar
characteristics served as the control.
Update: Before and After Design in two
locations and comparison of two post-change
periods
Case definition:
• Incidents in which police were called to, or themselves
observed, a criminal act involving common assault, actual or
grievous bodily harm, assault of police, or shooting with
intent other than to murder, as defined under the NSW
Crimes Act 1900, and irrespective of whether there was a
subsequent charge or conviction. (Excludes domestic
violence)
 Occurred 10pm-6am
 In postcode areas 2300 and 2302 (CBD) or 2303
(Hamilton)
 Pre: April 2001 to March 2008 (28 quarters)
 Post 1: April 2008 to September 2009 (6 quarters)
 Post 2: October 2009 to March 2013 (14 quarters)
Map of Newcastle
14 pubs forced to close earlier:
3.30am (previously 5am)
Hamilton
CBD
Graph of the Number of Assaults
Kypri K, Jones C, McElduff P, Barker D (2011). Effects of restricting pub closing
times on night-time assaults in an Australian city. Addiction 106(2) 303-10
Open access: Google title
Assaults per quarter 7 years before and 18 months after the
change in closing time
Before
N
CBD
(Intervention area)
99.0
Hamilton
23.4
(Control area)
After-toRelative After-toAfter
Before
Before
N
incidence rate incidence rate
ratio
ratio
(95% CI)
(95% CI)
67.7
25.5
0.68
0.63
(0.58 to 0.80)
(0.48 to 0.82)
1.09
1.00
(0.88 to 1.35)
Reference
P
0.0005 a
-
Kypri K, Jones C, McElduff P, Barker D (2011). Effects of restricting pub closing
times on night-time assaults in an Australian city. Addiction 106(2) 303-10
Were the effects sustained?
Kypri K. Earlier pub closing times key to reducing alcohol-fuelled assaults. The Conversation,
3/3/2014, https://theconversation.com/earlier-pub-closing-times-key-to-reducing-alcoholfuelled-assaults-23829
Graph of the Number of Assaults – After restriction in
closing time and evaluation
Kypri K, McElduff P, Miller P (2014). Restrictions in pub closing times and
lockouts in Newcastle Australia 5 years on. Drug & Alcohol Review 33(3):323-6
Assaults per quarter before and up to 5 years after
the restriction in closing time
Mean
number of
assaults per
quarter
Pre
LOCATION
CBD
(Intervention
area)
Hamilton
(Control area)
Mean
Mean
number of number of
assaults per assaults
per
quarter
quarter
Post 1
23
Post/Pre
Incidence rate ratio
(95% CI)
Post 2/ Pre
Post 1/Pre
(Replication
of previous
study)
Post 2/Pre
(New finding)
Post 2
Pre
Post 1 Post 2
Apr 2001
Apr
Oct
to Mar 2008 to 2009 to
2008
Sep
Mar
2009
2013
99
Post/Pre
Incidence rate ratio
(95% CI)
Post 1/ Pre
68
24
71
0.67
0.68
(0.55 to 0.82) (0.55 to 0.85)
22
0.97
0.86
(0.73 to 1.28) (0.61 to 1.20)
Kypri K, McElduff P, Miller P (2014). Restrictions in pub closing times and
lockouts in Newcastle Australia 5 years on. Drug & Alcohol Review 33(3):323-6
2. Evidence from elsewhere
• Stockwell & Chikritzhs. Do relaxed trading hours for bars
and clubs mean more relaxed drinking ? A review of
international research on the impacts of changes to
permitted hours of drinking. Crime Prevention and
Community Safety 2009;11(3):153-70.
~ 14 controlled studies (Australia, Brazil, Canada, UK, USA,)
“the balance of reliable evidence…suggests that extended
late-night trading hours lead to increased consumption
and related harms.”
2. Evidence from elsewhere continued:
•
Hahn, R. A., et al. (2010). Effectiveness of policies restricting hours
of alcohol sales in preventing excessive alcohol consumption and
related harms. American Journal of Preventive Medicine 39(6): 590604.
• US Task Force on Community Preventive Services
• Reviewed:
 10 studies examining changes of ≥2 hours
 6 studies examining changes of <2 hours
• “There was sufficient evidence…to conclude that increasing
hours of sale by 2 or more hours increases alcohol-related
harms
• The evidence…was insufficient to determine whether increasing
hours of sale by less than 2 hours increases excessive alcohol
consumption and related .” [Not evidence of no effect but
insufficient evidence]
Lessons for Australia
• Permit all communities to initiate earlier
cessation of drinking in (not necessarily
closure of) licensed premises
• Dispense with lockouts: Maximum of 2am
cessation of consumption (last drink
sales at 1.30) ? [California model]
• Address off-licence density
• Ensure independent evaluation is
initiated well before regulatory change
Thank you