Transcript Geopolitics of Transnational Organized Crime: Future

Geopolitics of Transnational
Organized Crime: Future Challenges
and Threats
Ambassador Dr Ugljesa Ugi Zvekic
Geography of Transnational Criminal Flows
• Latin America to North America; West/Central
Europe;West Africa
• Asia (Afghanistan) to West/Central Europe;
Central Asia/RF
• North Africa to West Europe;South/Central Africa
to SouthEast Asia/China/Japan
• Eastern Europe to West Europe;South/Central
Africa
• West Europe to Eastern Europe/Afghanistan
• West Europe - within
Geopolitics of Transnational Criminal Flows
• Suppliers of criminal flows: mostly from
developing world and countries in transition
• Receivers: North America and West/Central
Europe; Asia
•
But
• Europe/North America: Suppliers of illegal
arms, precursors, illicit capital flows, money
laundering, corruption, female trafficking
victims
Geopolitics of Transnational Organized Crime
Flows vs. Markets
• Disparity between the geography of criminal
flows and criminal markets
• Criminal Flows: from developing to developed
• Criminal Markets : developed (but
increasingly developing)
• Is geopolitics opportunity framed ?
United Nations Convention against
Transnational Organized Crime
(Palermo Convention)
• Adopted by GA Resolution 55/25 of 15
November 2000
• Entered into force on 29 November 2003
• Parties: 179
• Serbia: 6 September 2001
Trafficking in Persons and Smuggling of
Migrants
• Destinations: North America/West Europe
• Origins: Latin America/Eastern Europe/Asia/Africa
But
• From Eastern Europe to Africa
• From Asia (China/Korea) to Africa
• Within EU: more than ½ from EE and the Balkans
• Within EU: Ease of movement
Criminal Markets for Persons
• Sexual exploitation: 79%
• Forced Labour: 18%
• Markets mostly located in North
America/West Europe increasingly in Africa
and Asia
• Increased labour exploitation in developed
markets due to “making the labour closer to
the capital” and demand for counterfeiting
Protocols supplementing UNTOC (1)
• The Protocol to Prevent, Supress and Punish
Trafficking in Persons, especially Women and
Children: in force as of 25 December 2003;
Parties: 159
• Serbia: 6 September 2001
• The Protocol against Smuggling of Migrants by
Land, Sea and Air: in force as of 28 January
2004; Parties: 138
• Serbia: 6 September 2001
Protocols supplementing UNTOC (2)
• The Protocol against the Illicit Manufacturing
of and Trafficking in Firearms, their Parts and
Components and Ammunition: in force as of 3
July 2005; Parties:107
• Serbia: 20 December 2005
Drugs: Flows
• Heroin: 90% from Afghanistan to Russia and Europe
(via the Northern and the Balkan routes)
• Cocaine: vast bulk from the Andean region to North
America and Europe (via Central America; West Africa)
and Southern Cone of Latin America
• Cannabis: From Africa (Morocco) and Asia
(Afghanistan) to Europe; from Central America to North
America but increased domestic production; the
challenges of legalization (Dutch; Uruquay; Colorado;
Washington State)
• New Psychoactive Substances: worldwide production
and trafficking
Drugs: Markets
• The largest world market is for cannabis:
increased supply from foreign and domestic
production – an increasing world market
• Cocaine: decline in the USA market but Europe
becoming the largest world market; emerging
cocaine market in Southern Cone of Latin
America
• Heroin: increasing Russian market but stable
European market
• NPS: the fastest growing production, trafficking
and world market
International Drugs Conventions
• Single Convention on Narcotic Drugs of 1961
as amended by the 1972 Protocol
• Convention on Psychotropic Substances of
1971
• United Nations Convention against Illicit
Traffic in Narcotic Drugs and Psychotropic
Substances of 1988
• Serbia (ex-Yugoslavia) party to all three
Cigarette Smuggling
• One of the biggest and the oldest TOC business
• Out of estimated USD 16 billion global cigarette trade 25%
is illict
• Traditional OC (e.g. Italian Mafia; the Balkan OC; Polish OC;
Russian and CA OC; )
• Non-European: Turkish OC; Arabian OC (North
Africa/Middle East)
• Within EU: Dutch, Belgium, UK
• Hard-core “drug traffickers” but also migrants and elderly
living from a social security allowances (informal economy)
• Big multinational companies (e.g. R.J.Reynolds in breach of
the UN and the US embargo on Iraq): Puerto Rico – EU
ports – Cyprus – Lebanon – Turkey - Iraq
Cigarette Smuggling: Why still there ?
• One of the oldest smuggling activities
• State control vs. unpaid duties and tax evasion
(VAT)
• Cigarette smuggling flow: towards markets
with the highest excise rate (UK; Ireland;
France; Germany; Nordics) – the Northern
trade belt
• Western Balkans considered one of the most
dyamic areas for cigarette smuggling
Tobacco Convention
• WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco
Control
• Adopted in 2003
• Entered into force: 19 September 2013
• Parties: 177
• Serbia: 9 May 2006
• Protocol to Eliminate Illicit Trade in Tobacco
Products
• Signed by 56; Nicaragua ratified (Serbia: not
signed yet)
Organized Corruption: Flows
• Corruption flows: gains from corruption
trafficked from developing world and
countries in transition to investment
companies and banks in the developed world
But
• Companies from developed world corrupting
partners and public administration in the
developing world and countries in transition
Organized Corruption: Markets
• Increasingly becoming organized as it requires
many actors to design, effect, launder and
legalize/invest
• Less distinction between active and passive
corruption
• Less distinction between public and private
sector corruption
• Increase due to developmental disparities and
investment opportunities
United Nations Convention against
Corruption (Medina Convention)
• Adopted by the GA Resolution 58/4 of 31
October 2003
• Entered into force: 14 December 2005
• Parties: 170
• Serbia: 20 December 2005
Geopolitical Configuration of Transnational
Organized Criminal Flows and Markets (1)
• Most criminal flows go то and most criminal
markets locate in the world major
economic/demographic and political powers:
G8 and BRIC(S)
• Most criminal flows eminate from the
devloping world
But
• criminal markets are increasingly global with
worldwide geographic spread
Geopolitical Configuration of Transnational
Organized Criminal Flows and Markets (2)
• Increasing global trend of the TOC to gain (and
maintain) licit position through merging legal and
illegal flows and markets: the legalization of profit
• Ownership of enterprises or holding of
executive/managerial positions : the control over the
profit legalization process
• Investments in economic sectors (e.g.
entertainment/hotels; construction; waste disposal;)
difficult to control
• Links with political parties/trade unions
• Increased use of e-technology for criminal enterprise
Italian Criminal Markets
• One of the oldest TOC Mafia but also Camorra
and ‘Ndrangheta
• Today it is not the control of the territory but the
market control
• Criminal market annual value: 170 billion EURO
or 10% GDP
• Drug Trafficking: 7.7 b; Extorsion: 4.7 b;
Prostitution 4.6; Counterfeiting 4.5
• Construction; Special Litter Disposal; Restaurants;
Hazard Games; Gold exchange
East Asia
• East Asia, in particular China, will become the
most prosperous criminal market both in terms of
demand and supply:
• Drug trafficking, production, consumption;
• Human trafficking/smuggling of migrants
• Trafficking in human body parts
• Cyber crime
• Fraud and corruption
• Counterfeiting
• Wild life/ivory illicit import
Balkans (1)
• Origins of OC in the Balkans (profit and
opportunity driven crime export and import)
• Boom during the 90s Yugoslav conflict and
sanctions
• Connections among criminal networks, paramilitary, local leaders and sometimes security
services; connections with ex-Yugoslav and
foreign OC groups
• Link between organized crime and corruption
Balkans (2)
• Drug trafficking but also cannabis and NPS
production
• Cigarettes smuggling
• Extortion
• Smuggling of migrants/human trafficking
• Corruption
• Small arms trafficking
• Money laundering
• Counterfeited goods production and trafficking
THANK YOU