Transcript No Slide Title

Key Technology Trajectories
Prague, October 22nd, 2004
Roberto Saracco
[email protected]
Key Technology Trajectories
 Approach
 Trajectories
 Disruptions
Roberto Saracco
[email protected]
The Web Site
The FOUR LAYERS
Looking into Technologies
 How would a Tech. evolve?
 How is it related to the whole?
Looking into Technologies
 reale
#n
 casuale( P )
C reale
Ccasuale( P )
Year 2004
3,090
2,899
0,164
0,051
Year 2010
3,000
2,774
0,266
0,055
Year 2020
2,781
2,689
0,270
0,058
Distribution of the degree of aggregation by 2010
#c
n(k)
#n
#c
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
1
3
5
7
9
11
k
13
15
17
19
21
Looking into Technologies
 ordinato
 reale
#n
C reale
Cordinato
Year 2004
3,090
9,838
0,164
0,439
Year 2010
3,000
9,035
0,266
0,494
Year 2020
2,781
8,646
0,270
0,504
Distribution of the degree of aggregation by 2010
#c
n(k)
#n
#c
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
1
3
5
7
9
11
k
13
15
17
19
21
Looking into Technologies
 How would a Tech. evolve?
 How is it related to the whole?
 What are the crucial impacts?
(passive/active)
Technology Trajectories
 3D Imaging
 Artificial Life
 Broadband
 Communications
 Content Creation
 Data Capture
 Encryption
 Gaming Platforms
 Gaming Storage
 Human Interfacing
 Image Recognition
 Information Coding
 Information Displaying
 Information Retrieval
 Interactivity
Language Understanding
 Embedded System
 Multimode
 Person Identification
 Pin Pointing
 Printing Atoms
 Processing
 Profiling
 Seamless Ubiquitous Access
 Security
 Sensing
 Shadowing
 Storage
 Virtual Presence
 Terminals/Wearable
Technology Trajectories
Full discussion for Telecom Related Trajectories in
HEIDELBERG, Germany – November 9th , 2004
You are invited to join!
Technologies Trajectories
Artificial Life
 Robotics
 Virtual Reality
 Self creation: assembling / replicating
 Self adaptation: reconfiguration/healing
Artificial Life - Robotics
 Production oriented
 Towards increased
flexibility
 Support variety of
application fields
 Today: Europe, USA, Japan
 Tomorrow: Varies depending on appl.field
Trajectories
Artificial Life - Robotics
 Production oriented
 Autonomous
 Towards real
independence
 Support remote
exploration, AmI
 Today: Japan, USA, Europe
 Tomorrow: USA, Japan, ?
Trajectories
Artificial Life - Robotics
 Production oriented
 Autonomous
 Symbiotic
 Towards closer, spontaneous
interactions, seamless
integration, smarter
robots
 Support augmented life,
healthcare, prosthetics
 Today: USA
 Tomorrow: USA, ?
Trajectories
Artificial Life - Robotics
 Production oriented
 Autonomous
 Symbiotic
 Social
 Towards seamless interaction
 Entertainment, Education,…
 Today: USA
 Tomorrow: USA, Japan
Trajectories
Artificial Life - Robotics
 Production oriented
 Autonomous
 Symbiotic
 Social
 MicroRobots
 Towards better movement capabilities
nanoRobots for health care
 Support ambient exploration, sensing
 Today: USA (nanoRobots), Europe
 Tomorrow: ?
Trajectories
Artificial Life - Robotics
 Production oriented
 Autonomous
 Symbiotic
 Social
 MicroRobots
 Swarm (Physical, Sw)
 Towards collective autonomous intelligence
 Support ambient sensing, Meta-Info harvest
 Today: USA
 Tomorrow: USA
Trajectories
Disruptions: Looking for “x”
Disruption
Time
Looking for “x” in processing
Obj.
? SmartGRID
PDA
Mainframes
PC
Tablet PC
Mini
Time
Looking for “x” in health care
Understanding
Specificity
Symbioses
Bio-Substitution
Monitoring
Drug syntheses
Fast Mapping
Human Genoma
Time
Disruptions, signpost
Looking for “x” in health care
Symbioses
Bio-Substitution
Monitoring
Drug syntheses
Fast Mapping
Human Genoma
Wet Ware
Bio Printing
Sensors – U.Acc.
Hi.Sp. Processing
Molecular comp.
Time
Disruptions, signpost
Disruptions
 Transformation of Products into Services
 The Disappearance of the Computer
 Ubiquitous seamless connectivity
 Changing Traffic Patterns
 Infinite Bandwidth
 Disposable Products
 Autonomous Systems
 From Content to Packaging
 The emergence of Virtual Infrastructures
From Products to Services
From Products to Services
 Technological Enabling Factors
 Embedding of communications capabilities
 Rising of profiling
 Cheaper production processes
 Embedded Systems
 Seamless Ubiquitotus Access
 Communications
From Products to Services
 Technological Enabling Factors
 Market Driven Factors
 Products becoming commodities
 Loss of differentiation capabilities
 Increased copycat possibilities
From Products to Services
 Technological Enabling Factors
 Market Driven Factors
 Industry Impact
 Transformation into service companies
 Shortening of products’ life cycle
 Strong increase in call centers
 Automated customised assistance
 Increased globalisation of the market
 Restructuring of the value chain
From Products to Services
 Technological Enabling Factors
 Market Driven Factors
 Industry Impact
 Market Sectors Affected
 Health care
 Entertainment
 Transportation
 Consumer appliances
 Education
…
From Products to Services
 Technological Enabling Factors
 Market Driven Factors
 Industry Impact
 Market Sectors Affected
 Likeliness to happen
 Disruption is already occurring
 Connectivity bundled as a service feature
 Appliance bundled in connectivity
Key Technology Trajectories
Prague, October 22nd, 2004
Roberto Saracco
[email protected]