Transcript Sources and Methods of GDP Compilation Maldives

Workshop on National Accounts
New Delhi, India, 6-9 July 2009
Annual National
Accounts of the
MALDIVES
Introduction
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Annual GDP estimates are prepared in constant prices by
industry, using the production approach.
The base year for the existing constant price GDP series is
1995. This base year GDP estimates have been derived from
a supply and use table (Pilot-SUT) prepared for the Maldivian
economy for 1995.
At present, the compilation of the annual accounts (by industry
and final expenditure components) in constant prices is done in
the framework of a “Macro-Economic Budget” (MEB).
Introduction (2)
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Annual GDP estimates prepared in constant prices are used to
derive the current price GDP by incorporating the inflation
rates from the Consumer Price Index, and observations in some
of the production cost and import and export unit value indices
GDP at current prices by industry is not yet available
Data Sources
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Financial Reports of Public and Private Companies (Annually)
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Government Budget (Annually)
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BOP (Annual)
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Large and Small Establishment Surveys (specific years)
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Household Income and Expenditure Surveys/ Population and Housing Census (every 5
years)
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Economic Survey (2007 initial, planned for every 5 years)
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Foreign Trade Data (monthly)
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Volume indicators from other government offices (monthly)
Classifications Used
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ISIC 3.0 (for surveys/census data for industry classification)
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CPC 1.0 (for survey and census data/ products classification)
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COICOP (for HIES survey to code products and services)
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HS (for foreign trade statistics)
SPECIFIC METHODS USED IN
GDP ESTIMATES
AND FORECASTS
Agriculture and Forestry
The baseline survey of agricultural crop production during 1995
carried out by the Ministry of Fisheries and Agriculture.
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The production of forestry (i.e. timber) has been estimated through
the product balance.
Production of agricultural crops on these islands was enumerated
both in agricultural plots as well as in home gardens. The estimates
of the various crops, in terms of area cultivated, crop yields and
harvest periods were raised to the total for agricultural islands
Data sources
The data source used for the estimation of agriculture are forestry
and livestock is SES 2002/2003.
SES 1998/1999 was used to compare the input structure.
Fisheries
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The two industry branches, fisheries and fish processing have
been analysed jointly in order to establish the link between
production and use, both in terms of volume and values
Data sources
Fish catch estimates and input structure breakdown from
Ministry of Fisheries, Agriculture and Marine Resources.
Commercial and consumer price of fish; Quantity, value and
price of fuel sold for fishermen, Employment from Census 2000
and 2006
Mining
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Coral and sand mining is done in the Maldives on a
limited scale. Mining is allowed only in specific welldemarcated zones.
Data sources:
The data source used for the estimation of mining
and quarrying is SES 2002/2003.
Manufacturing
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Fish Preparation; Food Products; Beverages; Tobacco; Apparel;
Wood Planning and Furniture; Paper, printing and publishing;
Soaps and detergents; Cement products; Electrical equipment;
Shipbuilding and repair; Other manufacturing
Data sources:
The data source used for the estimation of Manufacturing are
Large Establishment Survey (LES) 2004, Financial Statement of
companies (FS), Small Establishment Survey (SES) 2002/2003.
Fish production data used from fish processing establishments
on a monthly basis
Electricity generation and distribution:
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Electricity generation and distribution consists of electricity
production in Male' and outer atolls. State Electric Company
(STELCO), is the main body engaged in the distribution of
electricity to the public. The estimates of electricity for 1995
have been obtained directly from the analysis of annual
accounts of the STELCO.
Data Sources:
The monthly electricity production by the public sector is used
as the indicator for this industry. Monthly data from the
STELCO and Maldives Airports Authority (generates electricity
for airports, which was previously done by MEB) is used.
Collection, purification and distribution of water:
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The direct estimates of water distribution has been obtained
from the annul report of the Male' Water and Sewerage
Company (MWSC).
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Data Sources:
The annual reports for 1996 and 1997 were used to
estimate value added for those years. From 1998 onwards
volume data on water distribution by month have been used
as an indicator for the industry.
Construction
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The construction sector consists of constructions of infrastructure
like public roads, public harbours, ports, airports, and
residential and non-residential buildings like government
offices, schools, hospitals, other public building (including
mosque and military premises), resorts, offices, shops and
houses.
Data sources
The data sources used for the estimates of this sector are
Large Establishment Survey (LES) 2004, Financial Statement of
companies (FS), Small Establishment Survey (SES) 2002/2003
and administrative data from Maldives Customs, building
permits and expatriate workers in the construction sector
Trade
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The Trade industry consists of wholesale and retail trade and
sales, maintenance and repair of vehicles services.
Data sources
Distribution sector is linked to household consumption. This is
made up of two parts, namely local products and imported
goods. Local products are updated with the population growth
and the imported goods are updated with the value of imports
deflated with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) to obtain the real
values.
The data sources used for the estimates of this sector are
Large Establishment Survey 2004, Small Establishment Survey
2002/2003 and Financial statements of Companies.
Hotels and restaurants – Resorts
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The tourism industry consists of resorts, hotels and restaurants,
vessels for inter-atoll cruises and guesthouses.
Extrapolation
the indicator of the volume of output of resorts is the number
of bed-nights.
Data sources
The data sources used for the estimates of this sector are
Large Establishment Survey (LES) 2004, Financial Statement of
companies (FS), Small Establishment Survey (SES) 2002/2003
and administrative data from Ministry of Tourism and Civil
Aviation, Department of Inland Revenue and Ministry of
Finance and Treasury
Transport
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Transport industry comprises of land transport, water transport, air
transport and auxiliary transport.
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Data sources
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land transport: the number of registered taxis has been selected as
the volume indicator.
Water transport: the number of registered vessels has been selected
as the volume indicator.
Air transport: The air transport branch consists of Air Maldives, Air
Taxi and Humming Bird Helicopters. For future years, these annual
report information have been projected based on the past trends.
Auxiliary Transport: the activities of the Maldives Airport Authority
and the Maldives Port Authority are included
Post and Telecommunications
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Post and telecommunication branch consists of Maldives Posts Limited
and Dhiraagu telecommunication company. These two companies are
public enterprises.
This activity is broken down into two sub-groups, namely the
telecommunications company (Dhiraagu) and the Maldives Post.
For Dhiraagu, monthly information on the number of international
and national call minutes have been used. The change in the volume
of international calls and national calls have been linked to the
shares of international and national business reflected in the 1995
company accounts. Now the wataniya (new entrance in 2004) has
been included
Maldives Post has been linked to the mail handled at Male'
international airport. Monthly data have been used.
Maldives Monetary Authority, Deposit and other Banks and
Insurance
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This industry comprises of Maldives Monetary Authority (MMA),
Bank of Maldives (BOM), State Bank of India, Bank of Ceylon
and Habib Bank and the Insurance companies, Allied Insurance
and SriLankan Insurance.
Their output growth has been linked to the change in business
GDP.
Real estate, Machinery & equipment rental, Business services:
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Real estate consists of two components, that is, renting of
building and land and an imputed service for owner-occupied
dwellings. Business services mainly consist of services provided
for auditing and accounting, legal, advertising and
engineering.
their volume growth has been linked to the change in "Total
business" value added.
Data sources
The data sources used for the estimates of this sector are HIES
2002/2003, VPA II and SUT 1997 and financial reports
Imputed rent of owner-occupied dwellings:
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The estimate for the imputed service for owner-occupied
dwellings was derived from the Population and Housing Census
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Public administration and defense
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The branch estimate for public administration and defense has
been based on the consolidated annual budget of the central
government.
Data Sources:
Value added in this activity is (by definition) mostly wages and
salaries. From the annual government budgets, the information
on compensation of employees is taken.
Education, Health and Other community, social, personal
services
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This branch consists of activities taking place in the private sector.
For eg: clinics, tuition classes etc. The estimates are obtained from
employment data and imputed wage rates.
Extrapolation
At present no information on these sectors is available and their
performance has been linked to population growth.
Data sources
Actual budget figures from Government Budget , SES 2002/2003
and administrative data from Ministry of Education were used for
education estimates
Actual budget figures from Government Budget, SES 2002/2003
and financial statement of ADK Enterprises Private Limited.
FISIM
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For the treatment of FISIM, a nominal industry was created in the SUT 1995
of which he output the output was set to zero through the introduction of a
negative operating surplus of the same total amount. This treatment is still
inline with the SNA 93 recommendations. Although SNA has a preference
of FISIM being allocated to the industries on the basis of outstanding loans
and deposits.
Extrapolation
The change in FISIM has been linked to the change in average amount of
loans outstanding at the end of the period to the private sector. And since
these values are “current” prices, the percentage growth in current prices
has been reduced with the change in CPI to estimate the change in constant
prices.
Price and other indicators
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CPI prepared on a monthly basis is used to deflate
all sectors which doesn’t have a specific index.
PPI and PI a very preliminary index prepared on a
quarterly basis. Some sectors are deflated using
this index
Import and Export Indices prepared on a monthly
basis, also very preliminary index used. Building
material index used to deflate construction sector.
Challenges and Difficulties faced in GDP computation
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Discontinued current price GDP due to high discrepancies
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Availability of financial statements
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Availability of reliable time series data sets
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Staff capacity
SNA Implementation
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SNA 93 is being followed in preparing SUT
Currently, only production account is being produced. However,
it is planned in the country’s NSDS
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Rebase GDP to 2003, by end of 2010
Continue doing a SUT every 5 years, 2007 now on the way, next to
be done in 2012
Rebase every 5 years
To prepare GDP in current price by production approach by 2010
Prepare quarterly GDP by production approach by 2014
Prepare GNDI by 2015
Adequate data availability
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SNA requires very detailed information, which we lack at
present. However, with the future plans of access to financial
statements and survey schedule hopefully this problem will be
solved
Challenges faced
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Adequate data availability
Staff with adequate knowledge
Staff turnover
Type of technical assistance
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To initiate quarterly national accounts
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Training in the field of national accounts
GDP Estimates – the current
economic situation in the
Maldives
GDP Growth, 2001 - 2011
GDP outcome for 2008 and projections for 2009 - 2011
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Economic growth of the country was estimated at
around 5.7 for 2008
However, estimate for 2009 released in June shows a
-1.3% for 2009
The sectors Tourism,
Current endeavors
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In the process of compiling a SUT for 2007, under ADB Reta
6483
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Compiled SUT for 2003 and publishing by end of July
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Rebasing GDP to 2003 using the SUT 2003, currently ongoing.
Thank you