Transcript presentation - Shipping and the law

Shipping and the law
October 2015
Ugo Salerno
Chairman & CEO RINA S.p.A.
Global growth remains moderate and once again more so
than predicted a few months earlier
World GDP
(%, constant prices)
4.50%
4.00%
3.50%
3.00%
2.50%
2.00%
1.50%
1.00%
0.50%
0.00%
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Y-o-year Growth
World growth in October 2014: +3,4%
World growth in October 2015: +3,1%
A Decrease of 9% from 2014 to 2015
Winners and Loosers
 India growth: +7,3%
(the highest increase)
 China growth: +6,8%
IS IT A REAL
SLOWDOWN?
 Russia growth: - 3,8 %
 Brazil growth: -3,4 %
The end of the China’s growth model?
Moving to a service-based economy
2004
2012
2014
Services
41,4%
45,5%
48,2%
Industry
46,9%
45%
42,6%
India is the new China?
Is India becoming capable of attracting
foreign investment?
2010-2013
First half 2015
312 bln$/y
28 bln/$
29 bln$/y
31 bln/$
China
India
Steel output
CHINA steel production -2%
INDIA steel production +6%
Annual Growth Crude Steel Production
(Source: World Steel Association; Thousand tonnes)
15%
10%
5%
0%
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
-5%
China Y-o-y Growth
India Y-o-y Growth
2015(f)
Iron Ore World Trade
Major Iron Ore Exporters in 2014:






Australia 726 mln tonnes
Brazil 340 mln tonnes
South Africa 67 mln tonnes
Canada 38 mln tonnes
Sweden 22 mln tonnes
Chile 14 mln tonnes
Major Iron Ore Importers in 2014:






Source: Banchero Costa - Capesize & VLOC Market Outlook, October 2015
China 931 mln tonnes
EU 115 mln tonnes
Japan 137 mln tonnes
South Korea 74 mln tonnes
Middle East 25 mln tonnes
Taiwan 23 mln tonnes
Iron ore: a three players game
Iron ore trade is a three-nations affair more and more
► China imports are more than 2/3 of total imports but
remained steady in 2015
► Australia’s share has grown from 50% in 2013 to
64% in 2015 (first half year)
► Brazil’s iron ore exports are projected to increase
by around 5% a year to 509 mln tonnes in 2020
Coal
Coal consumption growth in China and India
15%
+7%
800 Million
10%
tonnes
5%
-2%
3900 Million
0%
tonnes
-5%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
China
India
Coal
-35% (-70 mln tonnes)
Chinese coal imports
+33% (+60 mln tonnes)
Indian coal imports
Refining is moving from consumers
to producers & hubs
Middle East




Oil producer
Crude oil exporter
Products exporter
Third largest oil consumer
 As usual
 New
India
 Crude importer
 Investing to increase refining
capacity
 Product net exporter
Seaborne oil trade: product share increasing
(tonne miles traded)
2004
2015
Crude oil
82%
75%
Products
18%
25%