Transcript ARAB WORLD TOWARDS A SUSTAINABLE ECONOMIC GROWTH

ARAB WORLD
TOWARDS A SUSTAINABLE ECONOMIC GROWTH
Dr. A.MORSSY
Chief
Middle East &Arab Programme
UNIDO/Vienna
20-22 December 2011- AIDMO Conference
MOROCCO- RABAT
Outline of the Presentation

UNIDO Strategy

Sustainable Development

Economic Development in the Arab Region

Prospects for Growth in the Energy Rich
Countries

Prospects for Growth in the Energy Poor
Countries

Sustainable Consumption and Production
(SCP)
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
Greening Industries
ARAB WORLD. TOWARDS A SUSTAINABLE ECONOMIC GROWTH
UNIDO Strategy

UNIDO launched in 2008 a strategic initiative on
Green Industry to emphasize the positive role of
industry
in
advancing
sustainable
industrial
development.

UNIDO is promoting sustainable manufacturing as
the creation of products that use sustainable
processes
to
minimize
negative
environmental
impacts.

These processes also conserve energy and natural
resources, and are:


safe for employers, communities and consumers;
environmentally-economically sound.
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UNIDO & Green Economy (1/2)

A green economy (GE) can be defined as one that
results in improved human well-being and social
equity.

A GE also significantly reduces environmental
risks and ecological scarcities.

A GE is characterized by substantially increased
investments in economic sectors that build on
and enhance the Earth’s natural capital.

Increased investment in industrial development
resulting in additional employment and wealth as
a route to environmental improvement and
sustainability.
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ARAB WORLD. TOWARDS A SUSTAINABLE ECONOMIC GROWTH
UNIDO & Green Economy (2/2)

These sectors include renewable energy,
low-carbon transport, energy-efficient
buildings and clean technologies.

They also include improved waste management
and freshwater provision, sustainable
agriculture and forest management, as well
as sustainable fisheries.

These investments are driven or supported
by national policy reforms and the
development of international policy and
market infrastructure.
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Industrial Sustainable Development
Strategic Directions

Investors should require all companies to
report on their long-term strategy and how it
makes the business more sustainable.

It should demonstrate that they have a plan to
address the impacts of future systemic risks,
including:





climate change
water stress
biodiversity
population growth and urbanization
changing demographics.
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ARAB WORLD. TOWARDS A SUSTAINABLE ECONOMIC GROWTH
Sustainable Economic growth and poverty reduction
Impact
Consumer benefits
Components
Key actors
Enabling Policy
and institutional
environment
Improved
Market
access
Reduced
Environmental
degradation
Resource and energy efficiency
Environmentally friendly production
Policy and
regulatory
framework
Government
Incentive
and financial
mechanisms
awareness
and advocacy
General public
Enhanced
capacities
other service
providers
services
Sustainable Development
Outcome
Productivity
gains
Industries
Programme/Project
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Economic Development in the Arab
Region

Recovering from global crisis, and parts of the
Region are witnessing political and economic
changes.

Economic situation is aggravated by



high youth unemployment
absence of Institutions frameworks
rising food prices

Economic growth, which was already slow (for oil
importers), is expected to falter as tourism
revenues drop.

This will result in significant slowdown in
business climate and financial transactions.
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Prospects for Growth in the Energy
Rich Countries (1/3)

For the future, the world will continue to
depend on oil pumped from the Arab region,
especially the Persian Gulf.

The region will continue to account for a
third of global production in 2020.

The Gulf states will remain the world’s
lowest-cost producers and
hold more than
half of global reserves.
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ARAB WORLD. TOWARDS A SUSTAINABLE ECONOMIC GROWTH
Prospects for Growth in the Energy
Rich Countries (2/3)

The primary reason for the poor economic
performance of these the ‘energy-rich’
countries the productivity factor has been
declines.

These declines have been due to:
poor investment decisions;


microeconomic policies, especially price
subsidies; and
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ARAB WORLD. TOWARDS A SUSTAINABLE ECONOMIC GROWTH
Prospects for Growth in the Energy
Rich Countries (3/3)

Economic output in the energy rich,
especially for the smaller Gulf states, will
continue to be closely linked to oil output
and prices.

However, oil and gas exports will serve more
as a foundation than a driver of growth.

Only in Iraq and Qatar are increases in oil
production likely to exceed population
growth through 2020.
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ARAB WORLD. TOWARDS A SUSTAINABLE ECONOMIC GROWTH
Prospects for Growth in the Energy
Poor

Improvements
in
economic
policies
have
contributed to more rapid growth, specially
because of:

unifying exchange rates;

reducing tariffs and other barriers to trade;
and

privatization.

If growth recovers, the energy poor will
enjoy increases in per capita incomes
through 2020.
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Development in MENA countries (1/2)

MENA’s population is one of the
growing populations in the world.
fastest

Population has grown 19 % over the last 10
years.

World’s population grew by 11 percent.

MENA countries import 30% of the world’s
traded wheat.

MENA wheat imports are projected to rise
55% by 2030 from 2010 levels.
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ARAB WORLD. TOWARDS A SUSTAINABLE ECONOMIC GROWTH
Development in the MENA countries
(2/2)



Heavy reliance on international commodity markets
raises both price and supply concerns for the
MENA countries.
Over the last nine months

40% rise in the cereal price index

77% rise in the sugar price index (FAO Food
Price Indices Jun 2010 – Dec 2010)
Together, these two commodities comprise roughly:

61% of per capita caloric consumption in the
region
which is 7% points higher than the worldwide
average.
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Guidelines for Achieving Economic
Growth in the Arab Region (1/3)

Analytical support for macro, and financial
stability (financing and knowledge).

Managing inflation/food prices (knowledge).

Employment creation programs; scale-up of
public works, cash transfer and micro
finance.

Protection for
knowledge).

Governance, including economic, corporate,
and banking (knowledge).
the
Poor
(financing
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and
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Guidelines for Achieving Economic
Growth in the Arab Region (2/3)

Creating an enabling
sector
development
integration.

Provide quick financing, backed by reforms.

Assess
relevance
of
younger
portfolios
restructuring to address immediate needs.

Provide knowledge through intensive dialogue and
just-in-time analysis for policy choices.

Redeploy
themes.
human
environment for Private
&
promoting
Regional
resources
based
on
and
priority
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ARAB WORLD. TOWARDS A SUSTAINABLE ECONOMIC GROWTH
Guidelines for Achieving Economic
Growth in the Arab Region (3/3)

Encourage economic liberalization in the
region.

The Arab countries should work together
and improve economic performance through
regional integration.

Encourage these countries to better target
subsidies and reduce costs and hurdles
facing the private sector.
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Sustainable Development / SD

SD stands for meeting the needs of present
generations without jeopardizing the ability
of futures generations to meet their own
needs.

Otherwise said, a better quality of life for
everyone, now and for generations to come.

This
requires
changes
in
thinking,
economic
and
social
structures
and
consumption and production patterns.
in
in
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How to promote Economic Growth in the
GCC? (1/3)

To increase factor productivity, these countries
need to reduce price distortions by cutting
producer and, consumer price subsidies.

Reduce barriers to trade and foreign investment.

Continued expansion and integration of the Gulf
Cooperation Council (GCC) would do much to
increase
competition
and
improve
factor
productivity.

Privatization of non-energy-sector assets has
improved efficiency and generated rapid growth.
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ARAB WORLD. TOWARDS A SUSTAINABLE ECONOMIC GROWTH
How to promote Economic Growth in the
GCC? (2/3)

A more intensive approach to privatization
would generate additional benefits in terms of
accelerated growth in factor productivity.

Energy-rich countries should adopt policies to
foster more-efficient use of resources.

Going forward, we expect the GCC countries to
continue to push ahead with economic
liberalization, regional integration, and
privatization.
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ARAB WORLD. TOWARDS A SUSTAINABLE ECONOMIC GROWTH
How to promote Economic Growth in the
GCC? (3/3)

None of the energy rich has successfully
addressed the issue of state employment.

GCC countries have created jobs in private
finance and service industries and have
become socially acceptable.

However, government jobs remain the preferred
employer.
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ARAB WORLD. TOWARDS A SUSTAINABLE ECONOMIC GROWTH
Sustainable Consumption and Production
(SCP)

SCP is focusing on improving the overall
environmental performance of products throughout
their life-cycle.

The goal is to boost the demand for better
production technologies and to help consumers in
making better choices.

SCP contributes to the objective of sustainable
development in key areas such as:


climate change and
clean energy;
energy saving and
energy efficiency;


efficient use of
natural resources;
handling of
chemicals and
waste.
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Greening Industries
Green
industries
are
fully
committed
implementing the following methods:
to
 Resource efficiency and Cleaner Production
 Environmentally Sound Technology;
 Environmentally sound management of chemicals;
 Integrated waste management;
 Using renewable resources (Raw materials&
energy);
 Applying Eco-design of products and performing
above approach on continuous basis.
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Recommendations for Sustainable Economic
Growth
ENVIRONMENTAL
BOUNDARIES
SOCIAL CONDITIONS
CHARACTERISTICS OF THE ECONOMY
E1: Greenhouse gases
E2: Natural habitats
E3: Waste
C1: Stabilises concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere at a ‘safe’ level
S1: Hunger
C2: Builds resilience of natural and human systems to cope with a changing climate
S2: Obesity
E4: Water
E5: Ocean acidity
E6: Non-renewable resources
C3: Minimises pollution
S3: Poverty
C4: Maximises the material efficiency of the economy
S4: Health
C5: Maximises land use efficiency
C6: Maximises land efficiency
E7: Renewable resources
S5: Reproductive rights
E8: Soil productivity
S6: Water & Sanitation
E9: Chemicals
S7: Education
C8: Builds capacity for individuals to participate in the economy and supports
sustainable livelihoods.
E10: Atmospheric aerosols
S8: Shelter
C9: Incentivises behaviour change in line with the sustainable economy.
S9: Information
C10: Promotes fair terms for all global trade, in order to facilitate greater
levels of
economic equity.
C11: Eliminates all perverse subsidies.
E11: Ozone
E12: Nitrogen & Phosphorous
S10: Energy
S11: Human Rights
C7: Measures wealth by more than just GDP – including data on human
development and wellbeing.
C12: Allocates capital sustainably through financial markets.
S12: Governance
C13: Promotes the equitable distribution of resources.
S13: Trust
C14: Promotes the free flow of information and knowledge.
S14: Civil society
C15: Builds in the cost of all social and environmental externalities into
valuations.
S15: Science
S16: Sustainable Values
FRAMEWORK
SECTOR VISIONS
A FLEXIBLE, SUSTAINABLE ECONOMY THAT MAXIMISES
QUALITY OF LIFE FOR ALL, SO THAT PEOPLE CAN DEVELOP
THEIR FULL POTENTIAL AND LEAD PRODUCTIVE, CREATIVE
LIVES WITHIN ENVIRONMENTAL LIMITS.
CALL TO ACTION
CONCLUSION
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THANK YOU
for your kind attention!
Azza
Morssy
Chief, UNIDO Middle East and Arab Programme
Development and Technical Cooperation Division
Vienna International Centre,
P.O.Box.300 A-1400 Vienna, Austria
Tel:
+43-1-26026-3841
Fax: +43-1-26026-6848
[email protected]
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ARAB WORLD. TOWARDS A SUSTAINABLE ECONOMIC GROWTH