Transcript The Future of Religion in World Politics

The Future of Religion in
World Politics
Eric Kaufmann
Birkbeck College, University of London
[email protected]
Components of change
• secularization (S)
-----• demographic growth of religion (D)
• spiritual revival (SR)
• religious nationalism (N)
• R=D+SR+N-S
• Secularization more powerful in West, persistence or
revival elsewhere
Secularization
Inglehart’s Maslovian theory of secularization
• Wealth and security lead to
postmaterialist secularism
Secularization as we get richer?
Or
Secularization is a Western and East
Asian phenomenon (World Values
Surveys)
Country Religiosity (% Religious)
.8
India
Armenia
Bangladesh
Morocco
Colombia Brazil
Venezuela
Turkey
Dominican Republic
Bosnia and Herzegovina
South Africa
Pakistan
Azerbaijan
Mexico
Jordan
Chile
.8
Indonesia
Algeria
Turkey
Uruguay
.6
.2
Albania
Algeria
China
0
2000
4000
6000
GDP per capita constant $ (2000)
Iran (Islamic republic of)
.7
.6
.4
Nigeria
Iran (Islamic republic of)
Albania El Salvador
Viet nam
1
Egypt
Egypt
Nigeria
Bangladesh
Morocco
Tanzania
Uganda
Pakistan
Zimbabwe Georgia
Peru
Azerbaijan
Jordan
Indonesia
Philippines
Religiosity and Income in Muslim Countries, c. 2000
.9
1
Religiosity and Income in Developing Countries, c. 2000
8000
10000
0
2000
4000
GDP per capita constant $ (2000)
6000
Spiritual Revival
• Revivals associated with
migration and uprooting
• Seen by secularization theorists
as a temporary phase
• Linked to urbanization and
industrialization
Mass Urbanization
• Majority of humanity now in
cities
• 2-3 billion will move to cities in
21st c
Religion and Nationalism
Religion and Nationalism
Religion v. Nationalism
• ‘Render unto Caesar the things
which are Caesar’s, and unto
God the things that are God’s’ –
Matthew 20:21.
• 'People should give up their
pride in nations because this is a
coal from the coals of hell-fire. If
they do not give this up Allah will
consider them lower than a
lowly dung worm which pushes
itself through feces.'
(Muhammad's hadith recorded
by Abu-Dawood and al-Tirmidhi)
Religion=Nationalism
• Old Testament:
• “Be my holy people because I, the LORD, am holy. I have
separated you from other people to be my very own.” Leviticus 20:26
• “Then all the children of Israel went out, and the
congregation was gathered together as one man, from Dan
even to Beersheba” – Judges 20:1
• Proselytizing faiths: one group is favoured by God to
defend the faith or spread the faith
• ‘Missionary’ nationalism or ethnicity (Holy War:
Crusade = Jihad; Holy Warriors: Antemurale = Ghazi)
• Saudi vs Palestinian vs Iranian vs Turkey……
Nationalist Reinterpretation of religious texts: Hindu
Nationalism, c 19th -20th c
• Devotional rituals (i.e. Ganesh
Chaturti) become public nationalist
expressions of identity
• Gods (i.e. Kali, Krishna) reinterpreted
as Hindu national exemplars of
warrior virtue
• Aryavarta – land of Hindus.
Reinterpreted to correspond to
contemporary boundaries
• Tilak – blends Ganesh, Kali, the
Bhagavadgita and the medieval
Maratha warrior Shivaji
Other links
• Houses of worship
• Clergy
• Markers and cultural defense
Cultural Defense theory
• Non-Christian nations
• Non-Christian ethnic groups in
western nations
No Religion %, 2001-2011,
by Ethnic Group, England & Wales
30%
28.0%
25%
No Religion 2001
18.7%
20%
15.4%
No Religion 2011
15.9%
15%
12.9%
11.2%
10%
5%
0%
3.1%
1.7%
0.5%1.1%
1.4%
0.4%
2.3%2.9%
Religious Demography
Source: CIA World Fact Book 2008
Conclusion
• Secularization in the West, and in the most developed parts of Latin
America and the Caribbean
• Religious return in immigration gateway cities
• Religious nationalism and revival in non-Christian countries
• Fundamentalism and/or neo-evangelicalism rising inside and outside
the West
• Transnational fundamentalism and religious nationalism/ethnicity
may be in tension