Transcript Bagamoyo_ws_CCx - University of York File Library

Stakeholders driven scenarios of future
land use and cover changes in Tanzania
Claudia Capitani
KITE York Institute for Tropical Ecosystems, Environment Department, University of York
Bagamoyo, 2-3 October 2014
IPCC , 2008:
‘‘A scenario is a coherent, internally consistent and
plausible description of a possible future state of the world.
It is not a forecast; rather, each scenario is one alternative
image of how the future can unfold.’’
• The goals of scenario analysis are:
• to imagine future states and anticipate future
developments of the environment and society;
• to identify strategies for responding to these
developments and to evaluate the robustness of
strategies;
• to raise awareness about the uncertainty of the
future and alert to emerging problems;
• to help managers and decision-makers to think
creative, comprehensive and open.
Scenarios
Action
SCENARIOS
Scenarios
boundary conditions – Baseline: 2010, Scenario: 2025
KAMA KAWAIDA/Business as usual
MATAZAMIO MAZURI/Green economy
POPULATION
POPULATION
Demand for agriculture land
Demand for agriculture land
Livestock pressure
Livestock pressure
Demand of charcoal for energy
Energy dependency on charcoal
PFM, PES & REDD+ and other schemes
are not adequately implemented
PFM, PES & REDD+ and other schemes
are efficiently implemented
Deforestation and forest degradation
Deforestation and forest degradation
COMPLEXITY……….
• AGRICULTURE
• FORESTRY
• ENERGY
LAND
USES
CARBON
MARKET
• POPULATION GROWTH
• GDP
• HUMAN DIMENSION
OTHER
POLICIES
CLIMATE
CHANGE
SOCIOECONOMIC
FACTORS
REDD
• WOOD FUEL
• SUBSISTENCE
AGRICULTURE
• LIVESTOCK
GRAZING
• LOGGING
• MINING
GLOBAL/NATIONAL
CHALLENGES
(DEFORESTATION, CLIMATE
CHANGE, DEVELOPMENT)
STAKEHOLDERS WS –
TASK 1
TRENDS OF ECONOMIC
SECTORS WITH GREATER
IMPACTS ON LAND
SCENARIOS NARRATIVES:
SCENARIOS
GENERAL
DEFINITIONS
FUTURE TRENDS OF ECONOMIC
SECTORS
TRADE-OFF BETWEEN ECONOMIC
GROWTH AND ENVIRONMENTAL
IMPACT
IMPACTS ON LAND USES and
GENERAL TRENDS OF CHANGE
NATIONAL
POLICIES,
STRATEGIES AND
TRENDS
STAKEHOLDERS WS –
TASK 2
(MAP ANALYSIS AND
LAND COVER CHANGE
MATRIX)
BUSINESS AS USUAL 2025
GREEN ECONOMY 2025
WHICH LAND COVER CHANGES??
WHY??
WHERE ?????
FUTURE LAND COVER MAPS
Stakeholders consultations
• 189 participants from 7
zones
• 89% Men
• 51% delegates of
Local Governments
(Regions and Districts)
• 49% representing
NGOs, CSOs, private
business
TASK 1 Economic sectors trends
RICH
Economy
Environment
DEGRADED
HEALTHY
POOR
TASK 1 Economic sectors trends
RICH
Economy
Environment
HEALTHY
DEGRADED
POOR
Focus group discussion
• What is behind the positioning of the
sector?
• What is the trade/off between
economy and environment (land
use)?
• What is the current situation? What
will happen? Increase/decrease,
improvement/ worsening
• What could move the sector to the
BAU position?
• What could move the sector to the GE
position?
Task 2 Land cover changes
PROS:
• PARTICIPATION & OWNERSHIP
• MULTI-DIMENSION APPROACH
• LOCAL INSIGHTS AND
DETAILS RICHNESS
• MULTIPLE OUTPUTS
CONS:
• DEMANDING PROCESS
• DATA ANALYSIS &
INTERPRETATION: HOW
HARMONIZING VIEWS?
• HOW TO TRANSLATE
QUALITATIVE/SEMIQUANTITATIVE INTO SPATIALLY
EXPLICIT INFO?
• NOW THAT WE’VE CAUGHT
COMPLEXITY, ..HOW DO WE
SIMPLIFY IT?
forest
cover
ECONOMIC SECTORS TRENDS semi-quantitative
ECONOMIC SECTORS TRENDS semi-quantitative
ECONOMIC SECTORS TRENDS semi-quantitative
ECONOMIC SECTORS TRENDS semi-quantitative
MACRO-ECONOMIC SECTORS TRENDS semi-quantitative
ECONOMIC SECTORS TRENDS semi-quantitative
ECONOMIC SECTORS TRENDS semi-quantitative
MACRO-ECONOMIC SECTORS TRENDS semi-quantitative
CENTRAL
BAU
ECO/ENV
GE
ECO/ENV
EASTERN
BAU
ECO/ENV
GE
ECO/ENV
LAKE
BAU
ECO/ENV
GE
ECO/ENV
NORTHERN
BAU
GE
S_HIGHLANDS
BAU
GE
SOUTHERN
BAU
GE
WESTERN
BAU
ECO/ENV
ECO/ENV
ECO/ENV
ECO/ENV
ECO/ENV
ECO/ENV
AGRICULTURE
LIVESTOCK
ENERGY^
FORESTRY*
MINING
INFRASTRU
CTURES
POSITIVE TREND
NEGATIVE TREND
ECO/ENV
GE
ECO/ENV
NARRATIVES – semi-quantitative
FORESTRY
BUSINESS AS USUAL
GREEN ECONOMY
FARMING
MAIN DRIVERS OF DEFORESTATION (BAU)
MAIN DRIVERS OF FOREST DEGRADATION (BAU)
MAIN DRIVERS OF FOREST STATE IMPROVEMENT(GE)
LULC baseline 2010
38% of surface is protected
33.804.045 ha
Forest&Woodland
32.244.077 ha Cultivated
land: intensive + shifting
Population growth rate: 2.7%
yr
Estimated population growth
(2010-2025): + ca 21.000.000
Land use change model
2010 - 2025
NATIONAL
SCALE
Farming
Staple, cash
Population growth, Production/Consumption growth
Forest Products
Biomass energy
Charcoal, fuelwood
FORESTRY & NTFP
Livestock
Calibration with Stakeholders’ evaluation of sector
trends and secondary information by zones
ZONES
SCALE
FARMLAND EXPANSION
WOOD EXTRACTION
LIVESTOCK EXPANSION
Forest clearing provides
wood for charcoal
Calibration with stakeholders’ evaluation on likelihood of changes (by
zones) and local spatial distribution
INVESTMENTS
LOCAL
SCALE
LAND COVER CHANGES
IMPACTS ON ECOSYSTEMS SERVICES
MINING
Land use change model: preliminary results on land use change BAU
BUKOBA
MUSOMA
MWANZA
ARUSHA MOSHI
SHINYANGA
BABATI
SINGIDA
KIGOMA-UJIJI
TABORA
TANGA
MPANDA
MOROGORO
DAR ES SALAAM
KIBAHA
IRINGA
SUMBAWANGA
MBEYA
LINDI
MTWARA
SONGEA
MAIN CHANGES IN THE BAU SCENARIO
Conversion to cultivated
Conversion to grassland
Degradation
Land use change model: preliminary results on land use change GE
BUKOBA
MUSOMA
MWANZA
ARUSHA MOSHI
SHINYANGA
BABATI
SINGIDA
KIGOMA-UJIJI
TABORA
TANGA
MPANDA
MOROGORO
DAR ES SALAAM
KIBAHA
IRINGA
SUMBAWANGA
MBEYA
LINDI
MTWARA
SONGEA
MAIN CHANGES IN THE GE SCENARIO
Conversion to cultivated
Conversion to grassland
Degradation
Next step….todays workshop
THANK YOU