Transcript Slide 1
ECO National Focal Points Meeting Effect of Global crisis on ECO region and ShortMedium-Long Term implications February 15, 2010 Antalya, Turkey Outline • Short Term Implications GDP growth BOP dynamics Unemployment • Medium Term Implications • Long Term Implications Short Term Implications • • • • Contracting region and slowing economies Reduced export revenues Reduced import expenses Elevated unemployment rates ECO Annual GDP growth rate, % 10.00 8.00 6.00 4.00 2.00 0.00 -2.00 -4.00 9.00 8.00 7.00 6.00 5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 0.00 -1.00 -2.00 ECO Region Annual GDP Growth World Annual GDP Growth Economy - Level & Growth Rates Size of the Economy ECO (%) 2% World GDP Growth Rates (2009) ECO Vs Developed Economies ECO Vs Developing Regions ECO ECO EU CEE Advanced economies ASEAN Japan Developing economies US -6.00 -5.00 -4.00 -3.00 -2.00 -1.00 0.00 -5.00 -4.00 -3.00 -2.00 -1.00 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 Baltic Dry Index ECO Exports and Ratio to GDP 450 30 400 402 25 350 300 273 250 200 20 297 242 15 184 150 10 100 5 50 0 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 ECO Exports, USD billion % GDP (right axis) ECO Imports and Ratio to GDP 400 26 379 350 25 300 298 250 200 281 245 24 23 203 22 150 21 100 50 20 0 19 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 ECO Imports, USD billion % GDP (right axis) Trade and Current Account Balance 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 -5.0 -10.0 -15.0 -20.0 -25.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Current Account Balance, USD billion Trade Balance, USD billion Reserves in months of imports ECO Uzbekistan Turkmenistan Turkey Tajikistan Pakistan Kyrgyz Republic Kazakhstan Iran Azerbaijan Afghanistan 2009 2008 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 ECO Unemployment rate, % 14.0 13.2 12.0 10.0 10.6 10.9 10.2 10.3 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Medium Term Implications • Sub-trend growth rates • Recovery in export revenues and import expenses • Export revenues to remain below pre-crisis levels • Unemployment rates to recover slowly and remain above pre-crisis levels Unemployment rate, % 14.0 12.0 10.0 Projection 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Long Term Implications • Lagging Human capital formation- no major attempt to increase level of education and training of workers which results in lower productivity compared to other regions • Low global competitiveness – no ECO country is in the top 50 countries for global competitiveness. • Non-diversified exports which mostly consist of commodities (oil, minerals) and low technology products (textile, leather products). [Turkey is the only exception] • Infrastructure challenges —7 out of 10 countries are landlocked countries, poor roads and port facilities. • Limited economic integration within the region (only 7% of trade conducted within the region comparable figure for EU is around 70%). . THANK YOU www.etdb.org