Transcript Dominican Republic - Observatorio de Competitividad

Dominican Republic:
Country Forecast
July 2010
Dominican Republic
Editor: Stephen Keppel
Editorial closing date: July 7th 2010
Country Forecast July 2010
© The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2010
Dominican Republic:
Five-year forecast summary
Country Forecast July 2010
© The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2010
Dominican Republic: Five-year forecast summary
The ruling Partido de la Liberación Dominicana (PLD) succeeded in expanding its legislative majority
in the May 2010 legislative and municipal elections, and new election rules mean that the party will
maintain this majority until 2016, enhancing political stability until at least the next presidential
election in 2012.
The Dominican Republic's business environment will continue to improve gradually during the
forecast period, but the country will remain in the bottom third of the Economic Intelligence Unit’s
global business environment rankings.
Dominican economic growth will continue to outpace growth in the US and many countries in Latin
America, but the rate will be much slower in the forecast period (2010-14) at an annual average of just
4.5% compared with 7.4% average annual growth in 2005-09.
Real GDP growth
(%)
Country Forecast July 2010
© The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2010
Dominican Republic: Five-year forecast summary
The forecast for market opportunities is mixed. GDP growth in US dollar terms was weak in 2009,
and market opportunities will be restricted by the gradual recovery and the country’s small population
and low income per head during the rest of the forecast period.
Prospects for long-term economic growth will be influenced by external factors and domestic
policy reforms. The Dominican Republic will struggle to overcome structural constraints in human and
physical capital, as well as in its governance institutions. However, assuming a continuation of
generally cautious, market-oriented policies, the economy should expand steadily from 2012.
Household consumption per head
(US$)
Country Forecast July 2010
© The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2010
Dominican Republic: Business environment rankings
Value of index a
Global rankb
Regional rankc
2005-09
5.34
2010-14
5.69
2005-09
64
2010-14
64
2005-09
9
2010-14
8
4.8
5.0
59
59
8
7
Political stability
6.3
7.0
47
35
6
5
Political effectiveness
3.6
3.3
64
72
8
9
Macroeconomic environment
6.1
5.2
66
77
9
11
Market opportunities
4.4
4.9
62
60
9
7
Policy towards private enterprise & competition
4.8
5.0
57
61
8
8
Policy towards foreign investment
6.4
7.3
51
36
7
5
Foreign trade & exchange controls
8.2
8.7
32
24
5
2
Taxes
5.0
5.4
70
67
10
8
Financing
3.6
4.0
72
74
10
9
The labour market
5.6
5.6
57
59
7
9
Infrastructure
4.7
5.8
62
60
8
8
Overall position
Political environment
a
Out of 10. b Out of 82 countries. c Out of 12 countries: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Cuba,
Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Mexico, Peru and Venezuela.
Methodology
Country Forecast July 2010
© The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2010
Dominican Republic:
The political environment
Country Forecast July 2010
© The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2010
Dominican Republic: Political outlook
Highlights
The dominance of the ruling PLD should enhance political stability until at least 2012 while
securing a moderate pro-business agenda throughout the forecast period.
Progress on energy sector and government efficiency reforms will be slow and piecemeal as weak
institutional capacity and vested interests hold back progress.
The new constitution bans consecutive presidential re-election but allows for unlimited nonconsecutive re-elections, meaning that the president, Leonel Fernández, cannot run in 2012 but
could return in 2016. As a result, the race for the presidency in 2012 is wide open and will be a
significant source of political and social tension.
Both of the main political parties will struggle to select and appoint their presidential candidates in
the run up to the 2012 election.
There are no clear successors within the PLD and the leadership battle could be contentious.
Within the opposition Partido Revolucionario Dominicano (PRD), Miguel Vargas Maldonado, the
2008 presidential candidate, is the current party leader, but he has lost some popularity owing to
the PRD’s poor performance in mid-term elections and will face challenges from rivals.
At this point in time, a PLD candidate would be the most likely winner, if he receives the firm
backing of the current president, Mr Fernández.
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Country Forecast July 2010
© The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2010
Dominican Republic:
Demographics
Country Forecast July 2010
© The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2010
Dominican Republic: Demographic outlook
Population (m)
2005
2009
2014
9.0
9.5
10.2
2005-09
2010-14
Population growth
1.5
1.4
Labour force growth
2.2
2.2
Total
Period averages (%)
Population growth will be 1.4% per year during the forecast period, slightly slower than in 2004-08.
Migration to the US and Spain will slow slightly, owing to the global economic crisis. Remittances
from workers abroad will continue to support the economy of the Dominican Republic, although
remittance growth will be weaker in the forecast period than during 2004-08.
The population of the Dominican Republic is still relatively young and the old-age dependency
ratio will remain low.
Although improvements in education spending and attainment will continue in 2010-14, the quality
of the labour force will still be undermined by low skills levels, and unemployment will remain in
double digits.
Country Forecast July 2010
© The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2010
Dominican Republic:
The business environment forecast
Country Forecast July 2010
© The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2010
Dominican Republic: Business environment outlook
The Economist Intelligence Unit’s business environment rankings assess a country’s relative
attractiveness as an investment location, both globally and regionally.
The Dominican business environment still suffers from significant weaknesses including a lack
of a well-trained bureaucracy and excessive clientelism, which will continue to hamper political
effectiveness. Telecommunications infrastructure is better than in neighbouring countries, but
the electricity sector, which is characterised by indebtedness and persistent blackouts, will
continue to suffer from deep shortcomings. Some progress on a backlog of structural reforms
will result in a rise in its score, but it will remain in the bottom third in the regional and global
rankings in 2010-14.
Country Forecast July 2010
© The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2010
Dominican Republic: Macroeconomic environment
Like other small, open economies, the Dominican Republic will face a challenging policy
environment for most of the forecast period, and its medium-term path will depend in large part
on how fast the US economy recuperates.
Economic growth will rebound in 2010 but average growth in the forecast period will be slower
than in 2005-09 owing to weaker growth in exports, remittances and domestic investment.
On the domestic front, the banking sector has weathered the global storm better than expected
thanks in part to more effective regulation since the 2003 banking crisis. Nevertheless, a shock to
the system—triggered, for example, by a rapid depreciation of the Dominican peso—constitutes
a persistent risk.
Country Forecast July 2010
© The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2010
Dominican Republic: Fiscal policy
Central government budget balance
(% of GDP)
Emergency financial support from multilaterals
averted a fiscal financing crisis in 2009, but the
underlying fiscal position will remain weak in
2010-11, recovering gradually thereafter.
Arrears to suppliers will continue to accumulate
as structural weaknesses in the public finances
are aggravated by the slow recovery in revenue
and the inability of the authorities to rein in
current spending.
The primary balance (excluding interest
payments) will post a deficit of 1.5% of GDP in
2010 before reaching a surplus of 1.5% in 2014.
Public debt (including the quasi-fiscal debt) will
rise to 43% of GDP in 2011, owing to the size of
the deficit and comparatively weak economic
growth, before easing steadily thereafter. Around
45% of the public debt is denominated in foreign
currency, so a more rapid than forecast currency
depreciation would worsen these ratios.
Country Forecast July 2010
© The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2010
Dominican Republic: Monetary policy
Money market interest rate
(%)
The Banco Central de la República Dominicana (BCRD, the Central Bank) will generally adopt an
orthodox monetary stance over the forecast period, but will also be responsive to changing
external conditions.
Disinflation has allowed the BCRD to cut the benchmark interest rate to 4%, which is at a low in
the current cycle. After a rapid expansion of the money supply in 2010, monetary policy will tighten
gradually in 2011-12. A spike in inflation could prompt the BCRD to raise policy rates earlier than
expected, potentially leading to a sharper than forecast rise in commercial rates.
IMF support has improved confidence and bolstered international reserves.
Country Forecast July 2010
© The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2010
Dominican Republic: Policy towards private enterprise & competition
2010-11:
Implementation of legislation to increase transparency in public procurement is slow.
Patchy implementation of a competition defence law. Tighter protection of property rights
within the Dominican Republic-Central America Free-Trade Agreement (DR-CAFTA).
2012-14:
Government works to improve competition policy and facilitate a more efficient business
environment, but weak transparency and limited competition persist. State remains
involved in electricity distribution.
Country Forecast July 2010
© The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2010
Dominican Republic: Policy towards foreign investment
2010-11:
Liberal regulatory system towards foreign firms with attempts to attract foreign investment
in IT and BPO sectors. DR-CAFTA and other trade agreements gradually result in a more
secure and transparent environment. Attracting foreign investment constitutes a key
component of the country’s development strategy.
2012-14:
Discussions regarding the divestment of state-owned electricity companies begin.
Foreign investment remains integral to policy mix.
Country Forecast July 2010
© The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2010
Dominican Republic: Foreign trade and exchange controls
2010-11:
DR-CAFTA enhances trade and investment ties with the US and Central America. EPA
with the EU and CARICOM gradually increases trade flows. FTAs with Canada and
Mexico. Sporadic trade conflicts with neighbouring countries.
2012-14:
Stable regulatory environment for trade and capital flows. Temporary taxes on imports
and exports are possible. Institutional modernisation proceeds slowly.
Country Forecast July 2010
© The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2010
Dominican Republic: Taxes
2010-11:
Increasing tax burden. There are numerous exemptions, but the IMF exerts pressure to
reduce these. DR-CAFTA and EU EPA reduces taxes levied on foreign trade and efforts
to fight tax evasion make progress.
2012-14:
Low income tax rates and the expansion of the public deficit before the election may
require new tax reforms to increase revenue after May 2012.
Country Forecast July 2010
© The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2010
Dominican Republic: Financing
2010-11:
A high degree of concentration in the financial system and supervisory shortcomings
contribute to sustaining generally high lending costs. Still-tight international financing
conditions continue to add some pressure to interest rates.
2012-14:
International financing conditions improve. Slow improvement in banking sector
efficiency. Stockmarket continues to grow strongly, but will not provide a significant
channel for equity finance.
Country Forecast July 2010
© The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2010
Dominican Republic: The labour market
2010-11:
High unemployment and low productivity. Fiscal constraints restrict efforts to improve
education and health. The quality of the labour force is undermined by low skills levels.
High levels of informality and low productivity persist.
2012-14:
Unemployment declines but is still high. Insufficient number of skilled workers fully to
develop high-tech sectors. Scarcity of workers with secondary and university education
limits productivity growth.
Country Forecast July 2010
© The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2010
Dominican Republic: Infrastructure
2010-11:
Quality of physical infrastructure is uneven and often inadequate, except in
telecommunications. Severe structural problems in the electricity industry persist. Some
large-scale rail and highway projects begin, but financing them is difficult.
2012-14:
Further advances in telecoms. Other large-scale projects are proposed, but financing
difficulties persist. Electricity industry is slow to improve, owing to a lack of investment.
Country Forecast July 2010
© The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2010
Dominican Republic:
The economic forecast
Country Forecast July 2010
© The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2010
Dominican Republic: International assumptions
Economic growth (%)
International conditions during the first half of the forecast period will be much less conducive to
growth for the Dominican Republic than in 2004-08.
Although our baseline forecast assumes that the global economy has stabilised, higher risk
aversion than in 2003-07 and a shrinkage of the world's financial sector will have an impact on the
Dominican Republic as foreign investors will find it more difficult to raise finance for infrastructure,
tourism and communications projects—all key factors in recent economic growth.
Commodity prices will be supported into the medium term by structural factors, maintaining some
pressure on prices and providing little relief to the external accounts of import-dependent
economies like the Dominican Republic.
Country Forecast July 2010
© The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2010
Dominican Republic: Economic outlook
Economic outlook
(% real change)
We expect the Dominican economy to continue to outperform the US and Latin American average
growth rate, but real GDP growth will be much slower in the forecast period, at 4.5% a year, than
in the historical period, when growth averaged 7.4% a year.
Our forecast reflects a weak rebound in exports (as a result of both global dynamics and
competitiveness issues) and internal demand, owing to high unemployment, rising inequality and
slower exchange inflows from tourism and remittances—major drivers of consumption growth in
recent years.
Services will continue to outperform industry, but the sector's expansion will be held back by the
lack of skilled labour.
Country Forecast July 2010
© The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2010
Dominican Republic: Wage and price inflation
Consumer price inflation
(%; annual av)
We expect that the government will maintain
relatively cautious economic polices over the
forecast period after an easing cycle to stimulate
the economy in 2009.
Annual inflation has risen during the first half of
2010 on the back of higher oil prices and lower
interest rates, but we expect a gradual easing in
2011-14 to rates comfortably within the mediumterm target range of 5-7%.
Oil prices will continue to have a strong influence
on consumer prices, and if average annual prices
were to rise significantly beyond forecast levels
high inflation would return, with serious effects.
After rising by 15% in 2009 the next minimum
wage increase is in 2011, but high unemployment
and inflation will keep real wages down. Real
wages for most public-sector workers will rise in
the periods around elections in 2010 and 2012.
Country Forecast July 2010
© The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2010
Dominican Republic: Exchange rates
Exchange rates
With the current-account deficit and the gross financing requirement remaining substantial, the
peso will depreciate steadily against the US dollar in nominal terms throughout the forecast
period.
Since 2005 the currency has traded in a range of Ps32-37:US$1, with low volatility, but this range
will rise to Ps37-42:US$1 in 2010-14. However, owing to still relatively high inflation, the real
exchange rate will appreciate.
Cautious economic policies, improved reserve coverage ratios and controlled inflation mean that
the peso volatility of 2003-04 is unlikely. But fragilities in the banking sector will contribute to
pressures in the foreign-exchange market and could hit confidence.
Country Forecast July 2010
© The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2010
Dominican Republic: External sector
External sector
(US$ bn unless otherwise indicated)
The size of the current-account deficit will fluctuate with the cost of oil imports and the size of the
trade deficit.
We expect the current-account deficit to widen in 2010, owing to rises in oil prices, before being
relatively stable in 2011-14 as a percentage of GDP.
The structural services surplus and income deficit will remain relatively stable (as a percentage of
GDP) and the transfers surplus will continue on a downward trend (in GDP terms).
Country Forecast July 2010
© The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2010
Dominican Republic:
Foreign direct investment
Country Forecast July 2010
© The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2010
Dominican Republic: Foreign direct investment
Stocks and flows
Inflows of foreign direct investment (FDI) increased from an annual average of US$209m in 1990-94
to US$1bn in 1998-2002, owing to privatisation.
FDI reached US$2.2bn in 2009, a decline on the year-earlier period but up strongly from levels in
2007. In 2008 the stock of inward FDI was US$17.8bn (38.6% of GDP), and that of outward FDI was
US$59m.
The inward stock of FDI as a share of GDP is higher than in El Salvador and just below the
subregional leader, Costa Rica.
Inward foreign direct investment stock, 2010
(% of GDP)
Country Forecast July 2010
© The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2010
Dominican Republic: Foreign direct investment
Determinants
Efficiency-seeking investment in the free-trade zones (FTZs) and investment opportunities in tourism,
real estate and mining are the main determinants. IT services and call centres are of increasing interest
but the potential is unproven.
Tax incentives, political stability, low wages and favoured access to the US market led US companies
to move labour-intensive assembly operations to Dominican FTZs during the 1990s.
FDI in the tourism sector has grown rapidly since the late 1980s. Initial foreign investment was tied to
large all-inclusive resorts, attracted by the quality of the beaches and climate, adequate domestic
management capacity and low wages. However, in recent years investment has focused on more
lucrative luxury real estate complexes, flats and golf courses.
Inward foreign direct investment stock per head, 2010
(US$)
Country Forecast July 2010
© The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2010
Dominican Republic: Foreign direct investment
Potential
A return to macroeconomic stability and a favourable regulatory environment should result in continued
foreign investment in telecoms, tourism, manufacturing, construction and finance.
FDI in the FTZs has eased in recent years and the government is now promoting higher-tech
manufacturing and IT services, and business process outsourcing (BPO). Although some investment in
pharmaceuticals and electronics is likely to materialise, investment in other high-tech areas, such as
BPO and call centres, will be limited by skills shortages.
Relative macroeconomic stability and a more favourable regulatory environment should result in higher
foreign investment in tourism, real estate, construction, mining, telecommunications, electricity and
finance. Foreign investment will rise gradually and average US$2.1bn in 2010-14.
Annual inflows of foreign direct investment
(US$ m)
Country Forecast July 2010
© The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2010
Dominican Republic:
Market opportunities
Country Forecast July 2010
© The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2010
Dominican Republic: Market opportunities
GDP per head
(US$ at PPP)
Market opportunities will be restricted by the country’s small population and low income per head.
The population is forecast to reach 10.2m by 2014 and GDP per head is expected to reach
US$13,590 (at PPP), or around 15% of the average for western Europe.
The size of the Dominican market will expand by 32.3% in current US dollar terms in 2010-14, as
GDP growth rates strengthen in the medium term. But even this strong growth will not be enough
to increase market opportunities significantly.
Income inequalities will persist and consumers in the lower- and middle-class brackets will
continue to face high interest rates. High-income consumers will enjoy easier access to credit in
US dollars at lower interest rates, accentuating market segmentation.
Country Forecast July 2010
© The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2010
Dominican Republic:
The long-term forecast
Country Forecast July 2010
© The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2010
Dominican Republic: Long-term outlook
Real GDP growth
(% annual change)
The Dominican Republic has significant assets that have made it one of the fastest-growing
countries in the region in the last few decades. However, advances in human development have
been disappointing, which has restricted growth in labour productivity.
The Economist Intelligence Unit expects a move up the value chain for the FTZ sector, but this will
be gradual and will require significant improvements in human capital and infrastructure. Despite
advances in the past decade, the country's institutions are below international standards.
Structural economic problems, including a small domestic market, an unreliable energy sector,
weak institutions and poor advances in human development will limit long-term growth.
Country Forecast July 2010
© The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2010
Dominican Republic: Long-term outlook
Demographic trends: Population growth will gradually slow as increasing opportunities for
women in the labour market contribute to a fall in the birth rate. Until 2020 labour supply will grow
faster than population growth, at an annual average rate of 1.5%. As job creation in the formal
sector expands at a slower rate, unemployment will remain high, dampening real wage growth.
This will keep the informal sector growing and will encourage Dominicans to migrate to the US
and European countries where they have family ties.
External conditions: Economic performance has been closely tied to fluctuations in external
economic and financial conditions. DR-CAFTA has extended economic dependence on the US,
but agreements with Latin America, Europe and Asia will continue to help to diversify trade. If the
US economy underperforms, the Dominican Republic will feel the impact through lower workers’
remittances, manufacturing exports and tourism arrivals. Tougher immigration policies in the US
would also hit the country. The large external financing requirement exposes the economy to a
freeze in international capital markets.
Long-term performance: In common with other countries in the Caribbean Basin, the Dominican
Republic will continue to struggle to find a thriving niche in the global economy and a lack of
reforms to improve competitiveness will limit future growth. Improvements will be made but
economic growth will be highly dependent on the expansion of labour and capital. As the growth of
labour supply decreases with changing demographics and capital accumulation does not keep up,
GDP growth will ease.
Country Forecast July 2010
© The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2010
Dominican Republic: Long-term outlook
GDP per head
(US$ at PPP; index, US=100)
Nominal GDP
(US$ at PPP; index, Dominican Republic=100)
Country Forecast July 2010
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Dominican Republic:
Resources
Country Forecast July 2010
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Dominican Republic: Map
Country Forecast July 2010
© The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2010
Dominican Republic: Comparative GDP, 2009
Gross domestic product
(US$ bn; market exchange rates)
Country Forecast July 2010
Gross domestic product per head
(US$; market exchange rates)
© The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2010
Dominican Republic: Basic data
Land area
Population
Climate
Weather in Santo
Domingo
Language
Currency
Time
Public holidays
48,511 sq km
9.3m (2007 Central Bank estimate)
Subtropical
Hottest month, August, 23-31°C (average daily minimum and maximum); coldest
month, February, 19-28°C; driest month, March, 19 mm average rainfall; wettest
month, June, 185 mm average rainfall
Spanish
1 peso (Ps)=100 centavos
4 hours behind GMT
January 1st, 6th, 21st and 26th; February 27th (Independence Day); Good
Friday; May 1st; Corpus Christi; August 16th (Restoration Day); September 24th;
November 6th (Constitution Day); December 25th
Country Forecast July 2010
© The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2010
Dominicanenvironment
Republic: rankings: Methodology
Business
Outline of the model
The business rankings model measures the quality or attractiveness of the business environment in the 82 countries
covered by Country Forecasts using a standard analytical framework. It is designed to reflect the main criteria used by
companies to formulate their global business strategies, and is based not only on historical conditions but also on
expectations about conditions prevailing over the next five years. This allows the Economist Intelligence Unit to utilise the
regularity, depth and detail of its forecasting work to generate a unique set of forward-looking business environment
rankings on a regional and global basis.
The business rankings model examines ten separate criteria or categories, covering the political environment, the
macroeconomic environment, market opportunities, policy towards free enterprise and competition, policy towards foreign
investment, foreign trade and exchange controls, taxes, financing, the labour market and infrastructure. Each category
contains a number of indicators that are assessed by the Economist Intelligence Unit for the last five years and the next
five years. The number of indicators in each category varies from five (foreign trade and exchange regimes) to 16
(infrastructure), and there are 91 indicators in total.
Almost half of the indicators are based on quantitative data (eg, GDP growth), and are mostly drawn from national and
international statistical sources for the historical period (2005-09) and from Economist Intelligence Unit assessments for
the forecast period (2010-14). The other indicators are qualitative in nature (eg, quality of the financial regulatory system),
and are drawn from a range of data sources and business surveys adjusted by the Economist Intelligence Unit, for 200509. All forecasts for the qualitative indicators covering 2010-14 are based on Economist Intelligence Unit assessments.
The main sources used in the business rankings model include CIA, World Factbook; Economist Intelligence Unit,
Country Risk Service, Country Finance, Country Commerce; Freedom House, Annual Survey of Political Rights and Civil
Liberties; Heritage Foundation, Index of Economic Freedom; IMF, Annual Report on Foreign Exchange Restrictions;
International Institute for Management Development, World Competitiveness Yearbook; International Labour
Organisation, International Labour Statistics Yearbook; UN, Human Development Report; US Social Security
Administration, Social Security Programs Throughout the World; World Bank, World Development Report; World
Development Indicators; World Economic Forum, Global Competitiveness Report.
Back to Rankings
Country Forecast July 2010
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Dominicanenvironment
Republic: rankings: Methodology
Business
Calculating the rankings
The rankings are calculated in several stages. First, each of the 91 indicators is scored on a scale from 1 (very bad for
business) to 5 (very good for business). The aggregate category scores are derived on the basis of simple or weighted
averages of the indicator scores within a given category. These are then adjusted, on the basis of a linear transformation,
to produce index values on a 1-10 scale. An arithmetic average of the ten category index values is then calculated to yield
the aggregate business environment score for each country, again on a 1-10 scale.
The use of equal weights for the categories to derive the overall score reflects in part the theoretical uncertainty about the
relative importance of the primary determinants of investment. Surveys of foreign direct investors' intentions yield widely
differing results on the relative importance of different factors. Weighted scores for individual categories based on
correlation coefficients of recent foreign direct investment inflows do not in any case produce overall results that are
significantly different to those derived from a system based on equal weights.
For most quantitative indicators the data are arrayed in ascending or descending order and split into five bands (quintiles).
The countries falling in the first quintile are assigned scores of 5, those falling in the second quintile score 4 and so on. The
cut-off points between bands are based on the average of the raw indicator values for the top and bottom countries in
adjacent quintiles. The 2005-09 ranges are then used to derive 2010-14 scores. This allows for intertemporal as well as
cross-country comparisons of the indicator and category scores.
Measurement and grading issues
The indices and rankings attempt to measure the average quality of the business environment over the entire historical or
forecast period, not simply at the start or at the end of the period. Thus in the forecast we assign an average grade to
elements of the business environment over 2010-14, not to the likely situation in 2014 only.
The scores based on quantitative data are usually calculated on the basis of the numeric average for an indicator over the
period. In some cases, the "average" is represented, as an approximation, by the recorded value at the mid-point of the
period (2007 or 2012). In only a few cases is the relevant variable appropriately measured by the value at the start of the
period (eg, educational attainments). For one indicator (the natural resources endowment), the score remains constant for
both the historical and forecast periods.
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Country Forecast July 2010
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Dominican Republic: Indicator scores in the business rankings model
2005-09
Dominican Regional
a
Republic
average
2010-14
Dominican Regional
a
Republic
average
Political environment
1. Risk of armed conflict
4
3.9
4
4.0
2. Risk of social unrest
2
2.8
2
2.8
3. Constitutional mechanisms for the orderly transfer of power
3
3.3
4
3.5
4. Government and opposition
3
3.2
4
3.0
5. Threat of politically motivated violence
4
3.6
4
3.6
6. International disputes or tensions
4
3.5
4
3.3
7. Government policy towards business
3
3.1
3
2.9
8. Effectiveness of political system in policy formulation and execution
2
2.6
2
2.7
9. Quality of the bureaucracy
2
2.6
2
2.7
10. Transparency and fairness of legal system
2
2.6
2
2.5
11. Efficiency of legal system
2
2.4
2
2.4
12. Corruption
1
2.1
1
2.2
13. Impact of crime
3
2.6
2
2.5
a
Out of 12 countries: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador,
Mexico, Peru and Venezuela.
Note. A single asterisk (*) denotes scores based on quantitative indicators. Indicators with a double asterisk (**) are partly
based on data. All other indicators are qualitative in nature.
Country Forecast July 2010
© The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2010
Dominican Republic: Indicator scores in the business rankings model
2005-09
Dominican Regional
a
Republic
average
2010-14
Dominican Regional
a
Republic
average
Macroeconomic environment
1. Inflation*
4
3.8
4
4.0
2. Budget balance as % of GDP*
4
4.3
4
3.9
3. Government debt as % of GDP*
5
4.6
4
4.4
4. Exchange-rate volatility*
4
4.3
3
4.3
5. Current-account balance as % of GDP*
1
4.0
1
3.7
6. Quality of policymaking
3
3.1
2
2.8
7. Institutional underpinnings
3
3.3
3
3.0
8. Asset prices
2
2.8
2
2.8
a
Out of 12 countries: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador,
Mexico, Peru and Venezuela.
Note. A single asterisk (*) denotes scores based on quantitative indicators. Indicators with a double asterisk (**) are partly
based on data. All other indicators are qualitative in nature.
Country Forecast July 2010
© The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2010
Dominican Republic: Indicator scores in the business rankings model
2005-09
Dominican Regional
a
Republic
average
2010-14
Dominican Regional
a
Republic
average
Market opportunities
1. GDP, US$ bn at PPP*
2
3.1
2
3.1
2. GDP per head, US$ at PPP*
2
2.4
3
2.7
3. Real GDP growth*
5
3.8
4
3.3
4. Share of world merchandise trade*
1
2.0
1
2.2
5. Average annual rate of growth of exports*
1
1.9
3
2.7
6. Average annual rate of growth of imports*
2
2.9
3
3.4
7. The natural resource endowment*
2
3.2
2
3.2
8. Profitability*
5
4.2
5
3.9
9. Regional integration
3
3.0
4
3.4
10. Proximity to markets
3
2.3
3
2.1
a
Out of 12 countries: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador,
Mexico, Peru and Venezuela.
Note. A single asterisk (*) denotes scores based on quantitative indicators. Indicators with a double asterisk (**) are partly
based on data. All other indicators are qualitative in nature.
Country Forecast July 2010
© The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2010
Dominican Republic: Indicator scores in the business rankings model
2005-09
Dominican Regional
a
Republic
average
2010-14
Dominican Regional
a
Republic
average
Policy towards private enterprise and competition
1. Degree to which private property rights are protected
3
3.1
4
3.4
2. Government regulation on setting up new private businesses
3
2.8
3
2.8
3. Freedom of existing businesses to compete
3
3.3
3
3.2
4. Promotion of competition
3
2.7
3
2.8
5. Protection of intellectual property
2
2.6
2
2.8
6. Price controls
3
3.3
3
3.4
7. Distortions arising from lobbying by special interest groups
2
2.4
2
2.5
8. Distortions arising from state ownership/control
3
3.0
3
2.8
9. Minority shareholders
2
2.3
2
2.5
a
Out of 12 countries: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador,
Mexico, Peru and Venezuela.
Note. A single asterisk (*) denotes scores based on quantitative indicators. Indicators with a double asterisk (**) are partly
based on data. All other indicators are qualitative in nature.
Country Forecast July 2010
© The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2010
Dominican Republic: Indicator scores in the business rankings model
2005-09
Dominican Regional
a
Republic
average
2010-14
Dominican Regional
a
Republic
average
Policy towards foreign investment
1. Government policy towards foreign capital
3
3.5
4
3.4
2. Openness of national culture to foreign influences
4
3.8
4
3.7
3. Risk of expropriation of foreign assets
4
3.4
4
3.3
4. Availability of investment protection schemes
3
3.1
4
3.4
5. Government favouritism
3
3.0
3
3.0
a
Out of 12 countries: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador,
Mexico, Peru and Venezuela.
Note. A single asterisk (*) denotes scores based on quantitative indicators. Indicators with a double asterisk (**) are partly
based on data. All other indicators are qualitative in nature.
Country Forecast July 2010
© The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2010
Dominican Republic: Indicator scores in the business rankings model
2005-09
Dominican Regional
a
Republic
average
2010-14
Dominican Regional
a
Republic
average
Foreign trade and exchange controls
1. Capital-account liberalisation
4
3.8
5
4.0
2. Tariff and non-tariff protection**
4
3.5
4
3.6
3. Ease of trading
4
3.4
4
3.5
4. Openness of trade*
4
3.5
4
3.3
5. Restrictions on the current account
5
4.3
5
4.3
a
Out of 12 countries: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador,
Mexico, Peru and Venezuela.
Note. A single asterisk (*) denotes scores based on quantitative indicators. Indicators with a double asterisk (**) are partly
based on data. All other indicators are qualitative in nature.
Country Forecast July 2010
© The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2010
Dominican Republic: Indicator scores in the business rankings model
2005-09
Dominican Regional
a
Republic
average
2010-14
Dominican Regional
a
Republic
average
Taxes
1. The corporate tax burden**
4
3.6
4
3.5
2. The top marginal personal income tax*
5
4.7
5
4.5
3. Value-added tax*
3
3.2
3
3.3
4. Employers' social security contributions
4
3.4
4
3.3
5. Degree to which fiscal regime encourages new investment
2
2.6
2
2.5
6. Consistency and fairness of the tax system
1
2.4
2
2.6
7. Tax complexity
2
2.3
2
2.5
a
Out of 12 countries: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador,
Mexico, Peru and Venezuela.
Note. A single asterisk (*) denotes scores based on quantitative indicators. Indicators with a double asterisk (**) are partly
based on data. All other indicators are qualitative in nature.
Country Forecast July 2010
© The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2010
Dominican Republic: Indicator scores in the business rankings model
2005-09
Dominican Regional
a
Republic
average
2010-14
Dominican Regional
a
Republic
average
Financing
1. Openness of banking sector
2
3.0
2
3.3
2. Stockmarket capitalisation
2
2.6
2
2.7
3. Distortions in financial markets**
3
3.3
3
3.4
4. Quality of the financial regulatory system
2
3.1
3
3.3
5. Access of foreigners to local capital market
2
3.2
2
3.0
6. Access to medium-term finance for investment
2
2.5
2
2.3
a
Out of 12 countries: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador,
Mexico, Peru and Venezuela.
Note. A single asterisk (*) denotes scores based on quantitative indicators. Indicators with a double asterisk (**) are partly
based on data. All other indicators are qualitative in nature.
Country Forecast July 2010
© The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2010
Dominican Republic: Indicator scores in the business rankings model
2005-09
Dominican Regional
a
Republic
average
2010-14
Dominican Regional
a
Republic
average
The labour market
1. Labour costs adjusted for productivity*
5
3.7
5
3.8
2. Availability of skilled labour*
2
2.3
2
2.7
3. Quality of workforce
3
3.0
3
3.1
4. Quality of local managers
2
3.5
3
3.6
5. Language skills
3
3.1
3
3.3
6. Health of the workforce*
3
3.5
2
3.5
7. Level of technical skills
2
3.1
2
3.2
8. Cost of living*
4
3.5
3
2.8
9. Incidence of strikes**
3
3.2
3
3.3
10. Restrictiveness of labour laws
2
2.7
3
2.8
11. Extent of wage regulation
3
3.3
3
3.2
12. Hiring of foreign nationals
4
3.8
4
3.7
a
Out of 12 countries: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador,
Mexico, Peru and Venezuela.
Note. A single asterisk (*) denotes scores based on quantitative indicators. Indicators with a double asterisk (**) are partly
based on data. All other indicators are qualitative in nature.
Country Forecast July 2010
© The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2010
Dominican Republic: Indicator scores in the business rankings model
2005-09
Dominican Regional
a
Republic
average
2010-14
Dominican Regional
a
Republic
average
Infrastructure
1. Telephone density*
2
2.8
2
2.8
2. Reliability of telecoms network**
3
4.0
2
3.5
3. Telecoms costs*
2
3.2
3
3.8
4. Mobiles*
3
3.2
5
4.3
5. Stock of personal computers*
3
3.3
4
3.8
6. Internet use*
3
2.9
5
4.3
7. Broadband penetration*
3
3.0
4
4.3
8. R&D expenditure as % of GDP*
2
2.3
2
2.3
9. Research infrastructure
2
2.8
2
2.8
10. The infrastructure for retail and wholesale distribution**
2
2.4
2
2.8
11. Extent and quality of the road network**
2
3.1
2
3.0
12. Extent and quality of the rail network**
3
2.3
3
2.4
13. Quality of ports infrastructure
3
2.9
3
3.3
14. Quality of air transport
3
3.2
4
3.4
15. Production of electricity per head*
2
2.3
2
2.3
16. Rents of office space*
5
3.0
5
3.0
a
Out of 12 countries: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador,
Mexico, Peru and Venezuela.
Country Forecast July 2010
© The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2010