Transcript History (2nd part)

African Economic Development
Spring 2007
Independent African
states
Lecture by Dr R. Serra
The 1960s: single party states
Move towards one-party regimes
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1.
2.
Poor economies → low revenues → state inability to deliver
public goods → high frustration on the part of the populations
State as the only means for personal gains → politicization of
ethnicity
Leaders consolidate power, and soon prevent opposition to
operate

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Bureaucracies and armies were given immense powers
State management of the economy through para-statals
Leaders ensured internal control through:
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Patronage devices and exchange of favors (patrimonialism)
Outright repression
The 1970s: military regimes and the
onset of economic crisis
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Politically, many countries had coups d’etat staged by the army:
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Economically, this was the start of the economic crisis
Internal reasons
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Multiple justifications for military interventions, with one result!
85 successful coups during 1960-2002 in 35 countries
Excessive state control of the economy
Oversized bureaucracies
Low institutional/administrative capacity
Corruption of rulers and their associates
External reasons
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Declining terms of trade: collapse of commodity prices
Oil crises (most countries imported oil except Nigeria, Angola and
Gabon)
The 1980s: economic crisis and SAP
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1980-85: real GDP per-capita fell at an average of 2.3% yearly
Absolute poverty increased dramatically (45% of the SSA
population on average was poor in 1985)
The infrastructures (transport systems, schools, hospitals,
services to agriculture) became obsolete
Increasing population growth rates deteriorated the situation
even more
States’ external debt became huge and unsustainable:
–

by 1990 40% of export earning went to pay interest
Mid 1980s: most African nations were in such desperate
conditions that they turned to IFIs (while trying to avoiding them
until then)
The 1990s: democratization and
economic recovery
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Favorable circumstances
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1989-90: multi-racial elections in Namibia and
independence
1990: release of Nelson Mandela from prison
1991-95: Popular uprisings in most African countries
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The economic crisis had weakened authoritarian regimes
The fall of Berlin wall and end of cold war
International democratization waves
30 multi-party elections across the continent
Political liberalization but “hybrid” political systems
The 1990s (cont’d)
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Early and mid-90s:
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great hope and excitement
positive economic growth rates; economic
reforms
Late 1990s:
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reversal of democratic trends in several countries
economic downturns
rising inequalities and persistent poverty
The new Millenium
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Guarded optimism if any!
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Some optimistic situations:
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Ghana, Uganda, Tanzania, Mozambique, Liberia
Some reversals:
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Formal democracy different from real democratic change
Widespread economic improvement needed for long-term
political stability
Côte d’Ivoire, Chad
Crucial challenges:
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South Africa, Nigeria