Transcript POLS IP BD Systems and Anarchy File

International Politics
Third Image: Systems & Anarchy
• Systems Questions:
– What Is A System? Provide Several Examples.
– What Is Polarity? What Is A Unipolar, Bipolar, And Mulitpolar
System? Provide Examples.
– What Is The Role Of Power, Information And Certainty In
Polarity?
– Which Polarity System Is More Unstable, According To
Neorealists? What Do Critics Say? Which Do You Think Is More
Unstable?
– What Does The Balance Of Power Theory Say? When Is Conflict
More Likely, According To This Theory?
– What Is The Power Transition Theory? When Is Conflict More
Likely, According To This Theory?
– Which Systems Theory Does A Better Job Of Explaining
International Relations, In Your Opinion?
International Politics
Third Image: Systems & Anarchy
• System Definition:
http://users.erols.com/mwhite28/coldwar1.htm
– Interactions Of States & Nonstate Global Actors
– Actions Which Shape And Constrain Individual & State
Choices
– 2+ States Or Other Actors
– Examples
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“Cold War System”
Geographic Region
Dyad (Pair Of States)
Hemisphere
International System
New World Order
Hegemony
Cold War “Map” 1959
International Politics
Third Image: Systems & Anarchy
• Polarity Theories
Multipolar
– How Many Systemic Great Powers?
• Unipolar, Bipolar, Multipolar
– Variables
• Role Of Information
• Response To Uncertainty
Unipolar
Bipolar
– Neorealism (Kenneth Waltz: “Structural Realism”)
• Multipolar = More Dangerous System
• Multipolar = More Uncertainty; Uncertainty -> Lash Out
– Critique (Karl Deutsch + J. David Singer)
• Bipolar = More Dangerous System
• Multipolar = More Uncertainty; Uncertainty -> Caution
International Politics
Third Image: Systems & Anarchy
• System Power Polarity Exercise
– The Game “Axis & Allies”…For Real!
– Directions
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Go To POLS IP BD Axis And Allies Microsoft Excel Database
Go To Military Personnel Exercise Spreadsheet
Highlight The Countries And The Data For Your Year
Click “Insert Chart” And Choose A Pie Chart
Insert Title “Power Distribution, Military Personnel, (Year)
In Data Labels Click Percentage
Copy The Pie Chart Graph And Paste It In Microsoft Power
Point With Your Name At The Bottom
• Do The Same For Military Expenditures
International Politics
Third Image: Systems & Anarchy
Power Distribution Military Personnel 1818
14%
Check An Encyclopedia Or
Yearbook For Your Year
– Example: 1818
– Use This To Determine
GER
AH
11%
RUS
15%
Power Distribution Military Expenditures 1818
• The Strength Of The Balance Of
Power And Power Transition
Theory
– What Is The Distribution Of
Power In Your System?
– Did A War Between Or
Among Great Powers Occur
Shortly After Your System?
FRA
49%
• Whether Your Great Power
International System Is
– Unipolar
– Bipolar
– Multipolar
UK
11%
22%
UK
36%
FRA
GER
AH
15%
RUS
7%
20%
Which Measure Of Power Does A
Better Job Of Explaining Systems Theory?
• System Power Polarity
Exercise
International Politics
Third Image: Systems & Anarchy
• More Power-Based Theories
– Balance Of Power (Neorealism)
• Countries Do Not Fight Each Other When They Have
Relatively Equal Amounts Of Power (Equilibrium)
• Countries Attack When Stronger Than Their Opponent (Why
Pick On Someone Your Own Size? Pick On Someone Weaker!)
• Henry Kissinger
– “Strong Do What They Will, Weak Suffer What They Must.”
– Fluid Alliance System: May Join Weaker Side To Preserve Balance
» Prince Von Metternich & Congress Of Vienna (Post-Napoleonic
System Prevents Major War For A Century (1815-1914)
» Kissinger: USA “Tilts” Toward China Vs. Russia (1960s)
» Kissinger: USA “Tilts” Toward Pakistan Vs. India (1970s)
International Politics
Third Image: Systems & Anarchy
• Even More Power-Based
Theories
– Power Transition Theory
(PTT)
• Conflict Occurs Between
Countries With Relatively
Similar Amounts Of Power
• Less Conflict During
Power Imbalance
– Weak Countries Dare Not
Attack Strong Conflict,
Prefer Capitulation
– Strong Countries Do Not
Need To Attack Weaker
Countries, Get What They
Want From Weaker Country
Capitulations
HEGEMON:
USA
MID-LEVEL
POWERS:
Europe, China,
Russia, Japan
EVERYONE ELSE:
Americas, Africa, Asia
According To PTT: World Is
Hierarchically Oriented, Not
An Anarchy (Neorealism)
International Politics
Third Image: Systems & Anarchy
Is GDP A
Good Measure
Of Power?
64
19
68
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72
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76
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80
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84
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88
19
19
60
GDP Per Capita
According To This
Power Transition Theory Graph, Should the
United States and
Organski & Kugler, The War Ledger, 1980
20000
Soviet Union (USSR)
Have Fought?
15000
Should
USSR GDP
the USA
10000
USA GDP
and
PRC GDP
China
5000
(PRC)
Does This
0
Have
Help Explain
Fought?
Why The
Cold War Was
GDP: Sum Total
Years
“Cold,” And Not “Hot?”
Value of Goods & Services
International Politics
Third Image: Systems & Anarchy
• Anarchy
– Definition:
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http://www.iterated-prisoners-dilemma.net/
• Absence Of Centralized Authority
• Does Not Imply Chaos
– Actors Make Own Decisions
After Reading
This Lecture,
– Actors Lack Info On Other’s Strategy
Play The
Until A Move Is Made
Game
Security Dilemma
At One Of
– Security For Oneself = Insecurity For
These Sites
Another
– Result
• Mutual Mistrust & Suspicion
• Conflict More Likely
http://serendip.brynmawr.
edu/~ann/pd.html
International Politics
Third Image: Systems & Anarchy
– Prisoners’ Dilemma
Cooperate
Defect
• A University Of Georgia Fan
& Georgia Tech Fan Rob A
Cooperate 3,3
0,5
Bank To Get Supplies For A
Tailgate Party At The UGA5,0
1,1
Defect
GT Game
• The Cops Catch Both Fans With Guns But Not The $. Both Are
Separated While The Police Try To Sweat Out A Confession From
Both Fans.
• Player Strategies: Cooperate (With Each Other: Plead Innocent) Or
Defect (Plead Guilty)
• Outcomes: CC = Both Stonewall, Minimal Sentence (1 Year), DC
= UGA Plea Bargains, GT Gets 20 Years In Jail, DD = Both
Confess & Get Modest Sentence (7 Years), CD = UGA Gets 20
Years In Jail, GT Gets Off (Sucker’s Payoff For UGA)
International Politics
Third Image: Systems & Anarchy
• Anarchy Questions
– Prisoners’ Dilemma
• What Strategy Is The Computer (Serendip) Playing?
• How Does Anarchy Complicate Playing The Game?
• How Might Such A Game Apply To The Confrontation
Between The United States And Iran Over Nuclear Weapons?
– “The Bedford Incident”
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What Strategy Is The USS Bedford Captain Playing?
What Strategy Is The Soviet Submarine Playing?
What Is The Outcome Of Both Captain’s Actions?
What Can This Incident Teach Us About
– Prisoners’ Dilemma?
– Cooperation vs. Confrontation?