Transcript Διαφάνεια 1

OECD EURASIA COMPETITIVENESS PROGRAMME
INITIATIVE FOR THE SOUTH CAUCASUS AND UKRAINE
Impact of the crisis on regional economies
and economic co-operation initiatives in the
Black Sea and Caspian
Thessaloniki, November 2009
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1. The competitiveness challenge
2. Potential policy priorities to enhance
competitiveness
3. The need for a focused and demand driven
regional approach
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GDP growth in the region is impacted by the financial crisis
Average GDP growth falling in 2009
Growth in BSEC-CA Countries
GDP growth (per cent)
14
1998 - 2008
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
LOW & LOWER-MIDDLE INCOME BSEC: Albania, Armenia, Azerbaijan,
Georgia, Moldova, Ukraine
UPPER-MIDDLE & HIGH INCOME BSEC: Bulgaria, Greece, Romania,
Russia, Serbia, Turkey
CENTRAL ASIA: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan,
Uzbekistan
Source: OECD Development Centre / IMF
Source: EBRD; e. estimate; p. projection
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Reliance on external financing is increasing
On average 13% of GDP for BSEC region
330
14
280
12
230
10
180
8
130
6
80
4
30
2
-20
0
External Financing / GDP (%)
USD Billion
External Financing - BSEC
External financing/GDP (right-hand axis)
External financing
Capital inflows
FDI Inflows
Workers' remittances and compensation of employees
Source: OECD Development Centre / IMF
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A measure of competitiveness: FDI growth is slowing down
How to support the quality and quantity of FDI?
How to improve both quantity and quality of FDI?
FDI in USD
million
35,000
Central Europe
SEE
30,000
South Caucasus and Ukraine
Central Asia
25,000
SEE: Second
wave of FDI
Central
Europe:
First Wave
of FDI
SCU:
Third
wave?
20,000
15,000
10,000
Impact
of the
financial
crisis
5,000
0
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
estimate projection
Source: EBRD Transition report 2008, OECD Analysis
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The region remains cost competitive
Example: Cost competitiveness in labour for the Republic of Moldova
Example of SEE
Leveraging their competitive labour costs in services
Index
(100:
Hungary)
Relative comparison of average monthly labor cost in services (2005)
Up to 7
times
lower
(1)
Hungary Poland
Sample of CEE countries
Croatia Bosnia
Serbia
Albania UNMIK
&H
FYR
Montenegro
Macedonia
WB countries covered by the project
R.Moldova
India
Other references
Note: Monthly wages have been calculated on 2003-05 or 2003-06 average; using the LABORSTA Labour Statistics Database and covering, unless specified only the category J
(financial intermediation) and K (business activities, real estate and renting). For Albania overall figures are based on category I (transport, storage and communications) due to the
absence of statistics on J/K in the ILO databases
(1) average monthly wages in all services
Source: International Labour Organization; zdnetasia; Wall Street Journal, OECD interviews
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Cost competitiveness is a short term advantage
The need to move up the value-chain
Cost competitiveness is not sustainable
• Markets like India and China are clear low-cost alternatives.
• Cost levels in some sectors are increasing by up to 15% annually,
impacting negatively on margins and potentially eroding market share
levels.
• Limited access to finance and strategies to reinvest capital in
technology and human capital is a risk.
Significant gaps in human capital limit the opportunities to move up the value
chain
• Skills gaps in high growth industries such as ICT reach 60%.
• Coordination between ministries of education and economy and
dialogue with civil society are limited.
Limited focus on sector specific policy barriers as well value-added services
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Policy priorities to enhance competitiveness
Based on feedback from countries of the region
Which key areas need to be address to enhance investment
and competitiveness in the Black Sea (SCU)?
Human Capital
How to tailor human capital
policies and practices to support
financial and business services?
Sustained
Competitiveness
Financial
Markets
Development
How to address the impact of
the financial crisis, especially in
terms of access to finance?
Investment
climate policy
and promotion
How to support FDI by removing policy
barriers and supporting specific
sectors?
The need to focus on SME competitiveness
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OECD Eurasia Competitiveness Programme
New OECD Mandate (2008) covering two regions and 11 countries
Enhancing Regional
Business Climate
Prioritisation of policies to improve the business
climate
Policy Working Groups
Policy guideline and targeted implementation
Improving National
Competitiveness
OECD Sector Competitiveness Strategy
Surveys of investors and private sector perception
Evaluation of policy reforms
Supporting in implementing reforms
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Example : Monitoring policies at the regional level
Addressing reforms through regional working groups and peer review
Example for South
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The OECD Investment Reform Index
The SME Charter
East Europe
4
3
2
1
Investment
Policy
Investment
Promotion
Tax Policy
AntiCorruption
Policy
Trade Policy
Regulatory
Reform
Human
Capital
Regional Policy Working Group
Chaired by a country of the region and OECD country
Strong involvement of regional policy makers, private sector and OECD experts
Focused on delivering a “How To” guideline on implementation of reforms
in the targeted policy area
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OECD Policies for Competitiveness Assessment Framework
Which key topics should be addressed within each Policy
Working Group?
Dimension
Sub dimension
Investment Climate Policy and Promotion
“Policies for
Competitiveness” Dimensions
Sub dimension
Indicators
Investment Promotion and Facilitation
Indicators
1. Investment Climate
Policy and Promotion
Level 2
Level 3
Level 4
Level 5
Strategy
Implementing
Agency
Example of Indicators
4. Others
Level 1
Indicator
3. Human Capital for
financial and business
services
Investment Promotion and Facilitation
Sub dimension
2. Financial Markets
Development
Level of Reform
Monitoring and
Evaluation
Sub-national
coordination
FDI-SME linkages
Client relationship
management (CRM)
SCORE
Policy Advocacy
Aftercare services
SCORE
Free Economic
Zones
SCORE
Source: OECD PfC Assessment Framework
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Example: Investment climate policy and promotion
Initial area of focus
FDI Policy
Non-discrimination
• Restrictions to national
treatment
• Review of restrictions to
national treatment
• Approval procedures
• Admittance of business
personnel
• Transfers of FDI related capital
• FDI incentives
• Performance requirements
Property rights
• Land ownership
• Titling and cadastre
• Intellectual property
Initial area of focus
Promotion and
Facilitation
Framework
• Strategy
• Institutional support
• Monitoring and evaluation
• National and sub-national
coordination
Transparency
• Publication avenues
and tools
• Prior notification and
stakeholder
consultations
• Procedural
transparency
Investment promotion services
and activities
• FDI-SME linkages
• One stop shop
• Client relationship
management
• Policy advocacy
• Aftercare services
• Free Economic Zones
Investor protection
• Expropriation guarantees
• International agreements
• Arbitration
Source: OECD PfC Assessment Framework
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The need to focus on Investment Promotion and Facilitation
Overall high level of reform
Source: OECD Survey
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Good FDI performance and average FDI potential
FDI Performance and Potential
Low FDI Performance
High FDI Performance
Below potential
Front-runners
Luxembourg Norway
Hong Kong,
China
UAE
High FDI
Potential
FDI Potential is measured
through a wide set of
indicators such as:
Kazakhstan
Median of 141 countries
Czech Republic
Azerbaijan
Turkey
Jordan
Egypt
Armenia
Low FDI
Potential
Georgia
Under-performers
FDI Inflows < 0
FDI Performance is measured
through the ratio of a country‘s
share in global FDI inflows
to its share in global GDP.
Above potential
•GDP per capita and growth
•Share of global exports
•Share of R&D spending
•Country risk
•Share of world FDI stock
FDI/GDP ratio = 1
(world shares)
Improvement of FDI attractiveness through policy reform
Source: UNCTAD 2004-07, Ranking of 141 countries, OECD Analysis
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Example: Developing and implementing country /
sector specific competitiveness strategies
Example for
Republic of Moldova
Sector specific approaches help focus reform efforts
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Engaging the region and listening to country priorities
The initiative was formally launched at a Ministerial
Conference held on 1 April 2009 at the OECD
Ministers and high-level representatives of all countries of
the region (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Republic of
Moldova and Ukraine) adopted a statement to enhance
competitiveness in the region
The conference was chaired by Poland and Sweden in
collaboration with Czech EU Presidency and the EC
Strong collaboration with the private sector
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Contact details
ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC COOPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT
Directorate for Financial and Enterprise Affairs
Private Sector Development Division
Fadi Farra
Head
Eurasia Competitiveness Programme
Tel:
+ 33 1 45247820
Fax :
+ 33 1 45249335
Mobile: + 33 6 19133282
e-mail: [email protected]
Daniel Quadbeck
Policy Analyst
Eurasia Competitiveness Programme
Tel:
+ 33 1 45247522
Fax :
+ 33 1 45249335
e-mail: [email protected]
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