Transcript Intersection of Food Security and Trade Policy

Ashok Gulati
Chair Professor for Agriculture
Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER)
Panel Discussion at the seminar on “Trade Policy Agenda: Harvesting Issues in
Trade Agreement Negotiations and the Future of the World Trading System””
US Chamber of Commerce,
Washington D.C., May 7, 2014


Basic tenet: Open trade policies can help
improve food security
Then why is it that India does not open up
food trade fully and permanently?
◦ Delicate balance between food security of poor
consumers and livelihood of small producers
◦ Case study of edible oils and cereals in India.
◦ What does it mean for trade negotiations?
2012-13
2011-12
Value
10
8
8
6
4
6
2
4
0
2
Million Tonnes
Volume
2010-11
2009-10
2008-09
2007-08
2006-07
2005-06
2004-05
2003-04
2002-03
US$ Bn
12
12
10
25
Rice
Wheat
Maize
Others
Value of Exports (US$ Bn)
22.1
20.4
10.0
8.0
15
12.0
8.8
10
8.1
6.0
9.7
8.0
5.4
5.0
6.5
5.5
5.0
4.0
5.7
2.0
2.4
2013-14 (Est)
2012-13
2011-12
2010-11
2009-10
2008-09
2007-08
2006-07
2005-06
2004-05
2003-04
2002-03
0.0
2001-02
0
2000-01
Million Tonnes
20
5
12.0
2013-14
2012-13
2011-12
2010-11
2009-10
2008-09
2007-08
2006-07
2005-06
Agri-Imports
2004-05
2003-04
2002-03
2001-02
2000-01
1999-00
1998-99
1997-98
1996-97
1995-96
1994-95
1993-94
1992-93
1991-92
1990-91
US$ Billion
45
Agri-Exports
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
2013-14
2012-13
2011-12
2010-11
2009-10
2008-09
2007-08
2006-07
2005-06
2004-05
2003-04
2002-03
2001-02
2000-01
1999-00
1998-99
1997-98
1996-97
1995-96
1994-95
1993-94
1992-93
1991-92
1990-91
(%)
25
Agri Imports as a % of GDP (agri)
Agri Exports as a % of GDP(agri)
20
15
10
5
0
700
691.2
600
495.9
500
446.3
411.1
390.1
400
317.3
300
298.0
284.8
223.8
200
Rice Price US$/MT
Wheat Price US $/MT
India
Pakistan
China
Vietnam
India
Indonesia
China-Indica
China-Japonica
Philippines
100
Thailand
(US$)/MT
For India, fob for wheat is US$ 275-290/MT
and for rice US$ 390-420/MT
593.7
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

Food security is paramount concern for India,
given large population (1.25 billion) and mass
poverty
Trade policy will have to be subservient to this
overarching goal…India will take time to be
confident in opening up basic staples fully to
trade…but direction is clear and moving fast
Patience and perseverance! …as there will be
occasional hiccups!