Transcript Serbia

PROJECT: BALKAN CONSUMER BRIDGE
PRICES MONITORING
Dr. Boban Stojanovic, Jean Monnet professor
Faculty of Economics, University of Nis, Serbia
www.bobanstojanovic.eu
international conference
"EU requirements and exchange of good practices in the field of consumer
protection”
Vidin, march 27-29, 2014
The "Balkan consumer Bridge"
The project is co-financed by the European Union through the IPA cross-border program Bulgarska - Serbia
COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF
MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS
Serbia and Bulgaria
Serbia
Bulgaria
Economy
Year
2013
GDP (purchasing power parity):
$80.47 billion
country comparison to the world: 81
$104.6 billion
country comparison to the world: 74
GDP (official exchange rate):
GDP - real growth rate:
GDP - per capita (PPP):
$43.68 billion
2%
$11,100
$53.7 billion
0.5%
$14,400
GDP - composition, by end use:
GDP - composition, by sector of origin:
Unemployment rate:
Population below poverty line:
Budget surplus (+) or deficit (-):
Public debt:
Inflation rate (consumer prices):




household consumption: 75.8%
government consumption: 19.2%
investment in fixed capital: 16.3%
investment in inventories: 5.4%




household consumption: 70.4%
government consumption: 7.9%
investment in fixed capital: 21.3%
investment in inventories: 2.5%



agriculture: 7.9%
industry: 31.8%
services: 60.3%



agriculture: 6.7%
industry: 30.3%
services: 63%
27.7%
9.2%
-6.2% of GDP
65% of GDP
8.2%
11.6%
21.8%
-2.4% of GDP
18.4% of GDP
1.5%
Ease of doing business, Economy Overview
Serbia
Bulgaria
Population
7,223,887
7,304,632
GNI Per Capita (US$)
5,280
6,870
Income Category
Upper middle income
Upper middle income
Doing Business 2014 Rank
93
58
Doing Business 2013 Rank
87
57
Country
Source:The World Bank and International Finance Corporation http://www.doingbusiness.org/
Bulgaria
Serbia
Source: World Economic Forum, The Global Competitiveness Report 2013–2014
Project: BALKAN CONSUMER BRIDGE
PRICE MONITORING
DYNAMICS OF ACTIVITIES:
The First price monitoring: 23-24. Septembar 2013
The Socond monitoring price: 13. December 2013
 The Third monitoring price: April 2014
Methodological basis of research
• The aim of the research is to inform consumers in Serbia and
Bulgaria about benefits of buying certain goods in the neighboring
country. The focus of the research are: promoting cooperation between
border areas of Serbia and Bulgaria, consumer protection and
satisfaction of their needs. By continuous monitoring of prices in Nis
and Sofia, we encourage rational behavior of consumers.
• Reference period: The research has been conducted during the period
September 2013 - April 2014. Comparable data on average prices of
goods and services in reports are available for September 2013.,
December 2013. and April 2014.
Methodological basis of research
 Unit of measure: comparable price are given in the following units:
RSD, BGN and EUR, while the change in prices between the two
periods are given in percentages.
 Reports have been prepared on the basis of the data we obtained
during market research and by using official statistics in Serbia and
Bulgaria.
Methodological basis of research
• The subject of this reserach are the same or similar products that are
available in the following retail stores: 1) METRO in Sofia and Nis,
2) Piccadilly in Sofia and Maxi in Serbia, 3) Lidl in Sofia and DIS in
Nis.
• 41 products and 7 services (classified in 4 types) are included in a
market basket. Included products are systematized in several categories:
meat products (delicatessen), oils and fats, dairy products, other food
products and non-food products. We were comparing the following
services: dental, cosmetic, hospitality and catering services.
THE PRICES OF PRODUCTS AND SERVICES
December 2013
FOOD PRODUCTS – FOOD AND DRINKS
Expenditures for the purchase delicatessen products were lower in
Bulgaria in average for 8.4 euros (or 965 RSD).
Expenditures for the purchase delicatessen products are lower in Bulgaria in
average for 8.4 euros (or 965 RSD).
Expenditures for the purchase certain products covered by the
category of oils and fats were lower in Sofia than in Nis for 3.03
euros (or about 350 RSD).
It is also cheaper to buy dairy products in Sofia and the
difference in the prices of dairy products comprised in analysis
is 5.31 euros (about 610 RSD).
.
Based on the data given in Table, we can see that prices of
products in the category other food products are lower in
Serbia. However, the savings that are realized are small, 62
dinars or 0.54 euros.
.
Quan
tity
Serbia
(prices in
euros)
Bulgaria
(prices in
euros)
Phyllo for cheese pastry
(banitsa)
1 pc
0.65
0.76
Ketchup
0,5 l
0.79
1.05
Eggs (B class)
10 pcs
1.10
1.53
White sugar
1 kg
0.71
0.85
White beans
Potatoes
White rise
1 kg
1 kg
1 kg
2.62
0.40
1.30
1.97
0.54
1.02
Tomato paste
1 kg
0.92
1.87
Whiskey
0,7 l
11.49
10.47
Plain biscuits
1 kg
4.83
5.25
Chocolates
80 g
0.67
0.78
Chocolate dessert
1 pc
0.42
0.39
25.92
26.46
Other food products
In total:
NON-FOOD PRODUCTS
The results we obtained show that the biggest difference in proces is for non-food
products. If you decide to purchase non-food products in Sofia, consumers can realize
savings of 100.04 euros (or 18.8%). In the category of non-food products the biggest
difference was in technical goods which are better to buy in Sofia. However, it does not
apply to all non-food products.
For example, consumer can realize savings (nearly 4.72 euros, or about 540RSD) if he
decides to purchase car tires in Serbia.
The comparative analysis of values of products by categories
in the period: September 2013 - December 2013
Total value in euros
The category of products
September 2013
December 2013
The difference
(in %)
Serbia
Bulgaria
Serbia
Bulgaria
Serbia
Bulgaria
Meat products
46.68
28.77
39.04
30.64
-16.37
6.49
Oils and fats
14.03
11.76
15.27
12.24
8.84
4.08
Dairy products
24.51
20.91
21.39
16.08
-12.73
-23.09
Other food products
26.41
25.27
25.92
26.46
-1.85
4.71
Non-food products
710.20
592.19
634.45
534.05
-10.67
-9.81
Comparative analysis of the value of the product by categories showed similar movements
in Serbia and Bulgaria. (non-food products (prices drop in December compared to
September 2013), dairy products (prices drop in December compared to September 2013).
and oils and fats (increased prices)). If we analyze meat products we can conclude that in
Serbia consumers needed to allocate less money in December than in September, while in
Bulgaria consumers had to allocate more money in December than in September 2013.
SERVICES
Comparative analysis of costs of comparable services that are obtained by similar
providers in Nis and Sofia, showed that the use of the same is more favourable in
Serbia. The data show that the difference in expenditures for the use of covered
services is 24.41euros (22.7%).
For instance, identical dental sevices are cheaper two or three times in Serbia to the
same in Bulgaria. Difference in comparable prices of cosmetic services is slightly
smaller.
Services
Serbia
(prices in €)
Bulgaria
(prices in €)
Tooth extraction
Tooth sealing
Solarium (15 min.)
Nail extension
Body and face massage
Dinner in restaurants (sopska salad , 1 brandy , 10 kebabs, 1l
water)
Accommodation at three stars hotel (bed + breakfast)
13.06
13.06
3.92
9.58
15.67
7.22
23.01
20.45
4.60
17.90
23.52
6.65
45
35.79
Summary:
107.5
131.91
Comparative analysis of prices of services in Serbia and
Bulgaria (September 2013 - December 2013)
Services
Serbia (prices in €)
Bulgaria (prices in €)
September
13,12
10,50
4,59
10,50
19,24
December
13.06
13.06
3.92
9.58
15.67
September
29,40
30,68
3,76
17,90
34,77
December
23.01
20.45
4.60
17.90
23.52
Dinner in restaurants
(sopska salad, 1 brandy,
10 kebabs, 1l water)
7,17
7.22
7,16
6.65
Accommodation at
three stars hotel (bed +
breakfast)
48,11
Summary:
113,22
Tooth extraction
Tooth sealing
Solarium (15 min.)
Nail extension
Body and face massage
45
107.5
38,86
162,51
The difference
(in %)
Serbia
-1
-24.4
-14.59
-8.76
Bulgaria
-21.73
-33.34
22.34
0
-18.55
-32.35
0.68
-7.12
-6.46
-7.9
-98.42
-80.1
35.79
131.91
TOTAL VALUE OF BASKET OF GOODS AND SERVICES
Decembar 2013
Total value of basket of certain goods and services in Serbia (without transport,
customs, accommodation and telecommunication costs) is 843.57€, while in Bulgaria,
value of this basket is 10.93% less (92.19euros) and it is 751.38€.
Overview of the total value of basket of goods
(without transport and customs costs)
September 2013 - December 2013
Year-month
Total basket’s value in Euros
Difference (u %)
(1-2)
2013.
Serbia (1)
Bulgaria (2)
September
936.82
842.56
94,26 (10%)
December
843.57
751.38
92.19 (10.93%)
Sept.-Decem.
93.25
91.18
TRANSPORTATION AND TOLL COSTS
The comparative analysis of the transportation prices between Nis and Sofia
in the period: September 2013 – December 2013
Month and year
Benzine 95 octanes, 1l
Euro diesel, 1l
LPG, 1l
Toll in Bulgaria, vignette,
validity one week
Car transport, diesel,
320km + toll (vignette) for
one week
Bus transport, one-way
ticket Nis-Sofia (Sofia-Nis)
From Serbia to Bulgaria
(prices in euros)
September 2013 December 2013
1,30
1,31 (150,40din)
(148,90 din)
1,32
1.32
(150,90 din)
(151,40din)
0,73
0,75
(83,9 din)
(85,9din)
From Bulgaria to Serbia
(prices in euros)
December 2013
September 2013
1,40
1.32
1,33
1.36
0,7
0.71
-
-
5
5.11
37,81
(4323 din)
37,95
(4359,41din)
33,0
39.93
11,81
(1350din)
11,75
(1350din)
12,3
12.78
Based on the data presented in Table, we can see slight increase in prices of petroleum products in Serbia
and Bulgaria. Bus fares have remained unchanged.
Overview of purchasing power of population in Serbia and in Bulgaria
in period: September 2013. – December 2013.
Year -month
Average month income per
employee
(without taxes and
contributions)
Value of basket of
products in €
(3)
Basket – income relation
Serbia
(1)
Bulgaria
(2)
Serbia
Bulgaria
Serbia
(3:1)
Bulgaria
(3:2)
Septembar
42866 RSD
(375 euro)
799 BGN
(408,5 euro)
936.82
842.56
2.50
2.06
Decembar
43.615 RSD
(380 euro)
801 BGN
(409.54 euro)
843.57
751.38
2.22
1.83
2013.
Overview of purchasing power of population in Serbia and in Bulgaria
in period: September 2013 – December 2013.
Average pension
Year-Month
Value of basket in euros
(3)
Pension-value of basket
relaton
Serbia
(1)
Bulgaria
(2)
Serbia
Bulgaria
Serbia
(3:1)
Bulgaria
(3:2)
September
24025 RSD
(210 euro)
298 BGN
(152 euro)
936,82
842,56
4,46
5,54
December
25439
297.97 BGN
(221.4 euro) (152.31euro)
843.57
751.38
3.80
4.93
2013.
THE VOLATILITY OF FOOD PRICES
(STANDARD DEVIATION)
• Cycles of inflation largely driven by the fluctuations in food prices. Ending a six-year
process of reduction of customs tariffs on food imports to Serbia in the European
Union at the beginning of 2014. year should help reduce fluctuations in prices of
these products.
Country
Food proces
Relative food prices*
Level
Marginal rate
Level
Marginal rate
Serbia
15.7
12.3
5.3
8.1
Bulgaria
10.3
10.7
4.0
5.6
Hungary
9.3
5.5
3.5
4.5
FYR Macedonia
7.6
9.0
3.6
4.7
Rumunia
6.9
4.5
2.2
3.0
Slovenia
6.2
5.7
2.6
3.4
Croatia
6.0
5.9
2.4
3.6
EU 27
4.0
3.3
1.6
2.1
*The ratio of food prices and the general price level
Source: According to the National Bank of Serbia, December 2013
Contribution of this research
• The data we obtained in research can benefit consumers in Serbia
and Bulgaria for their better information about prices, the benefits
of cross-border purchases of certain goods , basic rights and choice.
• Based on detailed periodic reports (September 2013 - December
2013 - April 2014), we inform customers about level of process of 41
products and 7 services (classified into 4 types). We made a
comparative view of the total basket of goods.
• We have information about: transportation costs (fuel prices) and
tolls that are just one of the factors that influence on consumers'
decisions about the place of purchase. We analyzed the purchasing
power of the population of Serbia and Bulgaria on the basis of data
on average monthly earnings.
Contribution of this research
• In addition, in the first report we inform consumers about: mobile
phone services in roaming, conditions of goods and terms for
import good, customs regulations in Serbia and Bulgaria, the
refund of value added tax (tax free), McDonald 's price index.
• In the second report, consumers have provided information on the
volatility of food prices, food containing genetically modified
organisms and restriction of trade margins as a measure to protect
consumers.
• The research points out importance of inform comsumers in
Serbia and Bulgaria about benefits of buying certain good in cross
border region. On that basis, we contribute to the basic consumer
rights.
‘
Consumers by definition, include us all, are the largest
economic group, affecting and affected by almost every
public and private economic decision. Yet they are the only
important group... whose views are often not heard.‘
Kennedy
The level of consumer welfare is proportional to the
level of development of competition in the market.
Anything that distorts competition is going to distort the
consumer’position. On the other hand, everything that
strengthens the well-being of consumers can foster
competition.
THANK YOU FOR ATTENTION!
For more information about Reports visit:
http://bobanstojanovic.eu/
http://www.forum-nis.org.rs/
http://aktivnipotrebiteli.bg/