Transcript africa
27 June 2008 Louis Kasekende Chief Economist African Development Bank 1 UNECA UNECA Growth Africa continues steady growth Real GDP Growth Real GDP growth expected to exceed 5% for the sixth consecutive year in 2008 , and reach 5.9% Real GDP Growth (%) 7 6 Africa 5 • 2007: 25 countries over 5% • 2008: 31 countries over 5% 4 3 2 Total OECD • 2007: 13 countries between 3-5% • 2008: 16 countries between 3-5% 1 Growth in 2009 will remain sustained at 5.9% 0 Source: OECD Development Centre / African Development Bank, 2008 2 UNECA Drivers The commodity boom: a key driver for Africa Global commodity prices 2001-2009 500 450 400 500 Petroleum Copper Aluminium Gold 450 400 350 350 300 300 250 250 200 200 150 150 Cocoa Tea Coffee (robusta) Coffee (arabica) 100 100 50 50 0 0 Source: OECD Development Centre / World Bank, 2008 3 UNECA Drivers Improved macroeconomic framework Fiscal Balance % GDP Current account % GDP Inflation Average 2000-04 Average 2005-09** Average Average 2000-04 2005-09** Average Average 2000-04 2005-09** Central East North South 1.6 -2.2 -1.2 -2.5 8.6 -3.2 6 1.6 Central East North South -3.2 -4.3 5.6 -1.2 3.2 -7.5 13.2 -1.7 Central East North South* 14.6 6 2.6 14.4 4.6 8.7 5.2 6.8 West -0.5 4.5 West -2.7 3.3 West 10.3 7.8 AFRICA -1.5 3.4 AFRICA 0.8 3.8 AFRICA* 8 6.4 Source: OECD Development Centre / African Development Bank, 2008 * Excluding Zimbabwe ** Estimations for 2007 and predictions for 2008/09 4 UNECA Growth Oil exporters and importers: future re-convergence? Real GDP Growth 8 Real GDP Growth (%) 7 AFRICA Net Oil exporters Net Oil importers 6 • Growth rates for oil importer and oil exporter countries diverged significantly in 2007 and 2008 • However, this difference is set to narrow in 2009, due to: 5 - Slower growth of oil 4 production in Angola 3 - Growth recovery in Kenya and South Africa Growth will remain strong in 2008 with 31 countries showing GDP growth above 5% 2 Source: OECD Development Centre / African Development Bank, 2008 Net Oil exporters: Algeria, Angola, Cameroon, Chad, Congo, Côte d'Ivoire, Congo DRC, Egypt, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Libya, Nigeria, Sudan 5 UNECA Oil Exporters Performance and threats Strong growth… …but poor diversification & governance Oil exporters’ GDP growth 2008* (%) Angola Oil-exporting countries have a historical opportunity to pull ahead, yet many remain mired in poor governance, not using oil windfalls to finance broad development. Sudan Libya Egypt Congo Dem. Rep. Congo Good performers’ assets: Nigeria • Sustained and prolonged growth • Improving macro management • Rising Investment in non-oil sectors AFRICA Equatorial Guinea OIL IMPORTERS Algeria Challenges: Cameroon Gabon Chad 0 2 4 6 8 10 Source: OECD Development Centre / African Development Bank *: African Economic Outlook forecasts 12 • Poor diversification and governance • Structural declining productivity of oil fields • Capitalise on windfall gains and maximise spillover to rest of the economy • Avoid Dutch Disease 6 UNECA Oil Importers Performance and threats …yet challenges rising Good performance… Oil-importing countries have performed well, diversifying their sources of growth over recent years. However, rising inflation, food prices and lower global demand for non-resource exports signal rougher waters ahead. Oil importers’ GDP Growth 2008 (%) Cape Verde Mozambique OIL EXPORTERS Tanzania Ghana Good performers’ assets: Morocco • • • • AFRICA Tunisia Mauritania Senegal Namibia Sustained and prolonged growth Prudent macroeconomic policies Good Diversification Decreasing poverty Challenges: South Africa Rwanda Kenya 0 2 4 6 8 Source: OECD Development Centre / African Development Bank *: African Economic Outlook forecasts • • • • • Contain fiscal deficits, streamline spending High dependency on ODA Finance widening trade deficit Prioritise poverty reduction Vulnerability to climatic and price shocks 7 UNECA Challenges Energy crises threaten prospects Countries Vulnerable to Energy Shortages: • Installed capacity in SSA is insufficient to respond to high growth rates and increasing demand • 25 countries currently experiencing severe energy shortages. Liberia • Crises have been worsened by South Africa shortages, Kenyan political crisis, droughts and high oil prices. Conflict / Post-conflict Natural causes • A combination of high growth and low investment in energy infrastructures has created severe bottlenecks to development Oil price shock High growth/ low investment / structural issue Source: Briceno-Garmendia (2006); Eberhard and others (2008). 8 UNECA Challenges Is political instability still declining in Africa? AEO political stability indicators Political troubles and regime hardening 600 500 200 400 150 300 100 200 50 100 Regime Hardening (LHS) 0 Political troubles: weighted sum of events Hardeningof the regime: weighted sum of events 250 0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Hardening of the regime indicator 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Political troubles indicator Source: OECD Development Centre Qualitative data obtained from Marchés Tropicaux et Méditerranéens. Data is used to construct two indicators referring to: Political instability: occurrence of strikes, demonstrations, violence and coup d’état. Hardening of the political regime : incarcerations of opponents, measures threatening democracy such as dissolution of political parties, violence perpetrated by the police and the banning of demonstrations or public debates. 9 UNECA MDGs Slow progress, despite growth Progress on Millennium Development Goals 2007 Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger Goal 1 Achieve universal primary education Goal 2 Promote gender equality and empower women Goal 3 Reduce child mortality Goal 4 Improve maternal health Goal 5 Combat diseases Goal 6 Ensure environmental sustainability Target Goal 7 0% 20% satisfactory 40% 60% 80% 100% not satisfactory Source: OECD Development Centre / African Development Bank, 2008 10 UNECA 27 June 2008 Louis Kasekende Chief Economist African Development Bank 11 UNECA UNECA