Transcript Présentation PowerPoint - No Slide Title

27 June 2008
Javier Santiso
Director & Chief Development Economist,
OECD Development Centre
www.africaneconomicoutlook.org
www.oecd.org/dev/aeo
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Growth
Public and Private Investment
% of GDP
•
The share of investment in GDP has
increased in Africa, both public and
private, both domestic and foreign.
35
• Saving rate increased by 30% since
2002, witnessing more prudent
economic policies.
30
25
28
20
Per cent
Percent of GDP
40
Investment : a new driver?
15
10
Ghana
Madagascar
5
26
24
22
20
Tanzania
Zambia
18
16
0
African savings and investment rates
share of GDP (%)
Investment
Gross national savings
Source: OECD Development Centre / UNCTAD, 2008
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Private capital flows more important than ODA?
Growth
USD (billion)
70
60
50
Development aid and private capital flows to Africa
2000 - 2007
Remittances
FDI
Private portfolio flows
Other private flows
40
African ODA
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007*
Source: OECD Development Centre / UNCTAD, World Bank, IMF, 2008
*: UNCTAD preliminary estimation
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Record investment inflows for 2007
FDI
African FDI: Sub-regional breakdown
2004-2006
Africa FDI 2007 : $36 billion
• +20% on 2006; +200% on 2004
•FDI outflows - $8 billion 2006
North Africa
• Largely due to surging extractive industry
investment: South Africa and oil producing
countries are still receiving the bulk of direct
investment to Africa
Southern Africa
West Africa
• Previously off-limit sectors opening to foreign
investment:
Banking: Congo, Egypt, Nigeria
Central Africa
2005
Telecoms: Botswana, Burkina Faso,
Cape Verde, Ghana, Namibia
2004
Land ownership: Morocco
2006
East Africa
(5)
-
5
10
15
20
25
US$ billion
Source: OECD Development Centre / UNCTAD, 2008
 FDI inflows likely to remain strong, but
unevenly distributed by sector and destination.
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Asian investments driving African growth
FDI
Distribution of cross-border M&A purchases in Africa
by home region, 2001-2006 (US$ million)
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
World
15524
4684
6427
4595
10509
17569
Developed
economies
14964
3668
3156
4571
9564
7173
Developing
economies
559
1016
3270
2024
476
9721
Africa
520
809
569
1849
360
746
Asia
39
141
2536
175
116
8850
Source: OECD Development Centre based on UNCTAD cross-border M&A database, 2008
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South Africa: dominating the investment landscape
Equities
Equity flows to Africa
USD Billion
Month-end aggregate holdings
20
18
Total Africa
South Africa
16
• Africa still lagging behind in investment
compared to other emerging regions
(Asia especially).
• In turnover, the SA stock exchange is
worth 100 times that of Africa’s second
market: Nigeria.
14
12
10
• Over 2001-2006 period, South Africa
received as much portfolio equity
investment as the entire rest of SSA, 46
times over…
8
6
4
• African allocations in global equity funds
remains stable at 10% of total.
2
0
Source: OECD Development Centre / EPFR, 2008
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Private Equity Well adapted to African conditions?
emerging markets private equity
by region 2007
CEE/Russia
27%
Emerging Asia
52%
Total emerging world private equity funds
raised:
2003
Latam &
Caribbean
8%
Sub-Saharan
Africa
4%
Middle East &
North Africa
9%
Above: OECD Development Centre / African Venture Capital Association, EMPEA, 2008
2004
2005
$3.4 bln $6.4 bln $25 bln
2006
2007
$33 bln
$59 bln
• Sub-Saharan Africa 2005 - 2006: $2.3 billion
raised (+198% yoy)
• Average deal size $1.2 million (2005), trending
towards larger deals
• South Africa: 81% of investments, Nigeria 50% of
remainder (2005)
• Top sectors: Transport, consumer-related
investments, telecommunications/IT (2005)
• 2006: first $1 billion pan-African fund
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Bonds
Lowering spreads signal increased confidence
500
Spread (BP)
1800
1600
Egypt
450
Morocco
400
Ghana
350
Gabon
300
EMBI
Global
250
South
Africa
South Africa
1400
1200
1000
EMBI Global
Ghana
Gabon
200
800
Egypt
150
600
100
400
200
0
Source: OECD Development Centre, based on Thomson Datastream, 2008
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Opportunity Sovereign Development Funds: future investors?
Sovereign Wealth Funds
Emerging market investment potential
USD billion
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
SWFs total assets
Potential 2018 SWF flows to EM
United Arab Emirates: ADIA
Norway: Pension Fund Global
Potential current SWF flows to EM
Singapore: GIC
Kuwait: KIA
China: CIC
Russia: Stabilisation Fund
If Sovereign Development Funds allocated 10% of their
portfolios to emerging and developing countries, this
will generate inflows of $100 billion/year over the next
10 years.
With such huge potential flows, it is critical to address
SWF impact on developing world early on.
SWFs will dwarf ODA flows to developing world.
Singapore: Temasek
Development Aid DAC donors
$1.4 trillion to the emerging world over coming decade?
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Dev Centre A platform for global dialogue
OECD members at
Development Centre
Non-OECD members
Chile
Israel
South
Africa
Brazil
India
Romania
Thailand
Vietnam
Egypt
Colombia
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AEO
African Economic Outlook impact
International Forum on African Perspectives
Paris, June 2008
Seminar on Capitol Hill
Washington D.C, June 2008
EU-Africa Summit
TICAD
Lisbon, December 2007
Tokyo, May 2008
AfDB Annual Meeting
Maputo, May 2008
• International launch at AfDB Annual Assembly: 11th May 2008
• European launch: 13th May 2008
• Over 40 presentations and events within 3 months of publication
27 June 2008
Javier Santiso
Director & Chief Development Economist,
OECD Development Centre
www.africaneconomicoutlook.org
www.oecd.org/dev/aeo
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