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Sustainable Agriculture, Food,
Nutrition in China under New
Normal
Shenggen Fan
Director General | International Food Policy Research Institute
Key
messages
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 Tremendous progress made in reducing
hunger and malnutrition in China
 But China’s food security and nutrition
increasingly vulnerable to environmental
challenges
 Need to transform agriculture to improve
food security and nutrition sustainably under
new normal
Shenggen Fan, March 2015
Tremendous progress made in
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improving food security and nutrition
Undernourishment in China
1992-2016 (3 year avg.)
300
Stunting in children <5 years in
China, 1990-2010
25
40
200
30
15
10
100
0
%
%
millions
20
20
5
10
0
0
1990
Number (left axis)
Prevalence (right axis)
1995
Rural
2005
2010
Urban
Source: WHO 2015
Note: Data for 2014–16 refer to provisional estimates
Source: FAO 2015
Limitations to FAO hunger estimates
but provide good overview of
temporal trends
2000
Higher undernutrition rates among rural
residents, migrants, poor, and elderly
Overweight and obesity on the rise in China
•
•
•
26-44% of population overweight/obese (Gordon-Larsen et al. 2014)
↑ in non-communicable diseases (such as diabetes, heart disease, and some
forms of cancer), ↑ health care costs, and ↓ labor productivity
Direct and indirect costs = 4% of GDP in 2005 and 9% by 2025 (Popkin et al. 2007)
Shenggen Fan, March 2015
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Challenging environmental trends
increasingly facing China’s agriculture,
food, and nutrition
Shenggen Fan, March 2015
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Growing
environmental
LAND: Environmental degradation in
China’s grain production
Source: You, Spoor, and Ulimwengu 2010
WATER: Water stress for total renewable
water withdrawn, BAU, 2050 (%)
Source: Veolia Water and IFPRI 2011
CLIMATIC VARIABLILITY: Impact of climate change on mean crop yield
Shenggen Fan, March 2015
Source: WRI 2013, IPCC
2014, World Bank 2013
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style to health
Rising
agriculture-related
Food safety risks
Human health
increasingly
affected by intense
food production
• Unregulated expansion of food
production, e.g. milk contamination
• Increasing proximity of industrial
and agricultural activities
Animal-borne diseases
• Growth in animal-based food
production
• Economic costs: health care and
losses in tourism, retail, and trade
• Influenza epidemic could cost 0.7and 9 percent of GDP (McKibbin and
Picture source: ILRI 2013
Shenggen Fan, March 2015
Sidorenko 2006).
Source: ILRI 2012
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Transforming agriculture for food,
nutrition and sustainability under new
normal
Shenggen Fan, March 2015
Role
agriculture
new normal
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 Future potential of agriculture includes
• Improve food and nutrition security
• Increase household incomes and reduce poverty
• Stimulate rural nonfarm economy through production
and consumption linkages
• Create employment through value addition
• Mitigate greenhouse gases and protect natural
resources
Shenggen Fan, March 2015
Pathways
for
improving
China’s
food
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security and nutrition sustainably
1. Increase support for climate-smart, sustainable,
and nutrition-sensitive agricultural investment
 Resource-efficient, climate-smart agricultural technologies and
practices
2. Promote mutually beneficial trade and investment

Reflect domestic resource endowments
3. Scale up productive and cross-sectoral social
safety nets

Cross-sectoral social protection initiatives that target vulnerable
groups
Shenggen Fan, March 2015