Transcript Energy Sector - Russian American Chamber of Commerce in the USA

Russian-American Chamber of Commerce in the USA
Russian energy supply : Coal, Gas, Oil
COAL
•Around two-thirds of the world’s coal reserves and consumption are
in four countries, the US, Russian Federation, China and India.
•Coal consumption has been rising rapidly in recent years. Over the
period 2002–2007, for example, average annual increases of 6%
p.a. were registered.
•Around 70% of coal use worldwide is for electricity generation. With
the vast resource base, and a global reserves-to-production (R/P)
ratio of close to 133 years,6 clearly there is potential for further
robust growth.
Coal reserves top countries:
Source: BP Statistical Review of Word Energy, 2008
Coal Reserve(million tonnes)
Kazakhstan
Ukraine
South Africa
Australia
China
Russian
US
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
3
Coal consumption top countries:
Source: BP Statistical Review of Word Energy, 2008
Coal Consumption, (million tonnes)
Australia
South Korea
50,000
70,000
Germany
100,000
Russian
100,000
Japan
India
US
China
150,000
200,000
550,000
1,300,000
4
GAS
•Russia, with its massive reserves, is the second largest consumer
of natural gas.
•Recent growth has been modest and promises to continue to be so
as the scope for increasing gas use efficiency remains substantial. In
addition, gas prices have been on the rise.
Natural Gas
Natural Gas Demand
Natural Gas Supply
(million tones)
(trillion cubic meters)
China
Iraq
Aigeria
Venezuela
Nigeria
US
Unied Arab Emirates
Saudi Arabia
Qatar
Iran
Russia
Saudi Arabia
Italy
Germany
Japan
United Kingdom
Canada
I.R. Iran
Russia
US
0
20
40
60
0
200
400
600
800
6
Key findings:
•
•
•
•
•
•
Natural gas produced by independent producers in Russia will increase in 2030 at
a CAGR of 2.77% from 2010.
Export of natural gas from Central Asia to Russia is projected to hit more than 100
Billion Cubic Meters by 2030.
Domestic consumption of natural gas is projected to rise at a CAGR of around 4%
from 2008 to 2012.
Russian natural gas export to Europe and Asia is expected to grow at a CAGR of
around 2.2% from 2010 to 2030.
Natural gas price in the domestic market is expected to grow at a CAGR of
around 25.5% during the period 2008-2011.
Diesel consumption will grow faster than gasoline in Russia during 2008-2012.
7
GAS industry in numbers
•
•
For the period of 2001-2007 gas production in Russia increased from 581.9 to 654
bcm.
By 2020, Gazprom alone plans to produce 650-670 bcm per year. Additional
production boost of 140-150 bcm by the same year is expected to come from
other gas producers, such as LUKOIL, Novatek, Rosneft, TNK-B
Advanced technology use:
• Russia first-ever plant for liquefied natural gas (LNG) Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk
• The Sakhalin liquefaction plant, to operate at full capacity beginning in 2010, is
expected to produce 5 percent of the world's annual LNG supply .
8
OIL
•
Russia has the world's seventhbiggest oil reserves, at 80 billion
barrels, according to BP, a British oil
firm.
•
Russian production in the first
quarter of 2008, crude oil and NGLs
production is expected to increase
gradually from 9.7 mb/d in 2006 to
11 mb/d by 2012 and a further 0.5
mb/d by 2015
Oil Supply
World Oil Supply (mb/d)
15
10
5
0
2006 2012
2015 2020
2025 2030
US and Canada
Russia
Latin America
Middle East
Asia
China
10
Oil per capita consumption, 2030
Oil use per capita 2030 (barrels)
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
11
Pressure on Investment in the Russian Oil Sector
•
•
•
Russian oil companies pay three
separate taxes on their activities:
A royalty on crude production; taxed
at 22% after certain allowances
An export tax; based on the market
price of Urals crude in the preceding
two months. Light products attract a
30% discount on the tax charged and
fuel exports benefit from a 60%
discount.
A corporate profit tax of 24%,
charged on net income, in common
with other industries.
FEES:
•
Rosneft paid some $260 million for a
license to develop the East Sugdin oil and
gas field, with reserves of some 200
million tons of oil and more than 40 billion
cubic meters of gas
FUTURE PROSPECTS:
•
Rosneft may still acquire new licenses, but
developing new oil and gas fields in
Eastern Siberia would require billions of
dollars in investments
12
Russian Oil industry challenges:
•The small set of large (≥ 50,000 b/d) new fields coming on-stream
by 2012 is precisely known. Mature depleted Russian oil basins
(Western Siberia, Tartarstan) and tough new fields (Eastern Siberia,
Far East) require huge investments in infrastructure, new wells,
enhanced oil recovery, etc. to maintain or add to production.
•Government policy does not cap oil output but rather impedes
exploration & production activity with burdensome tax rates on
Russian oil companies. The Federation—Vladimir Putin and his
sidekick Dmitry Medvedev—also hassles and seeks to eject foreign
operators (and their capital) after they have exhausted their
usefulness, e.g. Shell at Sakhalin-2.
RUSSIA
•
•
•
Geography
Area: 17 million sq. km. (6.5 million sq. mi.); about 1.8 times the size of the
United States. Cities: Capital--Moscow (pop. 8.3 million). Other cities--St.
Petersburg (4.6 million), Novosibirsk (1.4 million), Nizhniy Novgorod (1.3
million).
Population (2007 est.): 141.4 million.
Annual growth rate (2007 est.): -0.484% (population declining)
Education (total pop.): Literacy--99.4%
Health: Life expectancy (2007 est.)--59.12 yrs. men, 73.03 yrs. women
14
I.
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
RUSSIAN ECONOMY
GDP (official exchange rate): $1.286 trillion (2007 est.)
GDP - real growth rate: 8.1% (2007 est.)
GDP - composition by sector: agriculture: 4.6% ; industry: 39.1% ;
services: 56.3% (2007 est.)
Labor force: 75.1 million (Nov. 2007 est.)
Investment (gross fixed): 19.4% of GDP (Jan.– Sept. 2007 est.)
Stock of direct foreign investment - at home: $271.6 billion (2006)
Stock of direct foreign investment - abroad: $209.6 billion (2006)
Russia possesses one-fifth of the world's timber reserves
3 % of foreign investments goes to the timber industry
15
RussianAmericanChamber.com
[email protected]
16