Transcript Global Transition to Sustainable Development

Global Transition to
Sustainable Development
Daniel E. Campbell
Research Ecologist
IV International Workshop Advances in
Energy Studies: “Ecology-Energy Issues in
Latin America”. Unicamp, June 15-19, 2004
Brief Outline of the Talk
• What is Sustainable Development?
• Where are we now?
• The trade-off between the economy and the
environment.
• Is sustainable development possible?
• Human well being.
• Environmental accounting using emergy.
• Comparison of emergy accounts for
South America and North America countries.
• Conclusions and recommendations.
Sustainable Development
• All nations could be better places for their
inhabitants to live, if well being could be
measured as ideal interaction
(product) of environmental, social, and
economic empower per capita in a system.
• Is this a reasonable goal for the world
today?
Understanding What is Sustainable
• Energy Systems Theory (Odum 1994) is used
as a context for understanding sustainable
development.
• Characterization of the properties of the global
system using this approach will help answer
our question.
• The maximum empower principle provides the
criterion for identifying system designs that will
succeed.
Maximum Power Design
• System designs that fits and maximize
available empower prevail in competition.
• Nature’s ubiquitous patterns are the result
of such designs.
• Pulsating systems at all scales may be
one such design.
Nature’s Pulsing Paradigm
• The pulsing paradigm replaces the old concept
of growth followed by steady state.
• Systems with coupled pairs of components can
oscillate.
• Such pulsing pairs are found on all hierarchical
levels of organization.
• Pulsing pairs contain two components: the
accumulator, that slowly builds up resources
and the frensor, that rapidly consumes the
accumulated resources.
Pulsing on nested levels of hierarchical organization.
100000
100000
Energy
100000
100000
ST = 1
Emergy, sej
Level 3
1000
Accumulated
Resource
100000
Resource
Consumption
16
B
12
8
A
D
C
4
0
10000
100000
Accumulated Resource
Resouce Consumption
20
1000
Dispersed
Material
0
400
800
1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200
Time
10000
10000
10000
16
100
Energy
10000
ST = 1
20
100
Emergy, sej
Dispersed
Material
Level 2
10000
Accumulated
Resource
10000
Resource
Consumption
Accumulated Resource
Resouce Consumption
12
8
4
0
0
1000
400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200
Time
20
10
Dispersed
Material
Level 1
1000
Emergy, sej
1000
10
Energy
1000
ST =1
1000
1000
Accumulated
Resource
1000
100
Resource
Consumption
Accumulated Resource
16
Resouce Consumption
12
8
4
0
0
400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 2800 3200
Time
The Cycle of Change
• The pulsing paradigm for ecosystem
development implies that a cycle of
change is the fundamental characteristic
of environmental systems rather than
development through a series of stages to
a climax condition that is sustainable.
The Repeating Cycle of Change
• Environmental resources by the ecosystems
(today and in the past) are the accumulated
products.
• Global economic, informational, and cultural
assets are the resource consumers.
• The cycle of change moves through phases
of (1) exploitation, (2) climax or conservation,
(3) creative destruction, and (4) renewal
(Holing's Figure 8).
The Cycle of Change
Empower sej y-1
12
10
8
B
6
4
A
2
C
D
0
0
800
1600
Time
2400
3200
The Evolving Cycle of Change
• The shared information of humans in social
systems provides a mechanism for
evolution of the cycle.
• Hypothesis:
System empower will gradually increase in
each successive phase of renewal, in the
limit, approaching the maximum empower
possible for the resource base.
Role of Information in altering the renewal phase of Pulsing Systems
k8
2.5E-5
Material, M
TM = 200
k7
2.5E-5
X
Consumers k9 Information
C =2
I = 0.2
3E-5
k6
3E-4
X
k11
X
k12
0.0003
Energy
E= 5
Resources
0.02 R = 2
X
k1
k2
X
0.002
0.005
k10
k4
k5
0.2
0.01
0.005
X
k3
0.0012
20
B
16
Emergy, sej
Accumulated Resource
Resource Consumption
12
C
A
8
D2
D1
4
0
0
400
800
1200
1600
2000
2400
2800
3200
Time
Pulsing as an evolutionary mechanism for attaining higher empower states.
Morality in Each Phase of the Cycle
A) Exploitation of Resources
B) Climax
C) Decession
D) Low Energy Steady State
Emergy, sej
20
Accumulated Resource
Resource Consumption
B
16
12
C
A
8
D2
D1
4
0
0
400
800
1200
1600
Time
2000
2400
2800
3200
• Our children will have
more material wealth
than we do.
• We will meet our
needs without
compromising the
needs of our children
• We will do more with
less, so our children
will have less material
wealth but life will be
better
• We plan for the 7th
generation of our
children.
Where are we now in the
cycle of change?
• M. King Hubbert (1956) predicted petroleum
production in the U.S. peak would occur in
1970, which history has verified.
• Colin Campbell predicts peak oil production
for the world around 2004. If he is right, the
peak occurred 9 years ago.
H.T. Odum’s model of Hubbert’s Blip.
Model of Global Society
on Fossil Fuel
F
Q
Production Nonrenewable Resource , P
P
Energetic limits determine the level of development.
Campbell’s forecast
Prior to its production
peak, energy does not
limit economic growth
or production, except
locally in time and
space.
Environmental Systems
• Environmental systems are ecosystems in which
humans are a dominant component.
• Economic production supports society and our
standard of living and is not possible without the
use of environmental resources.
• The central problem for sustainable development
is how to balance the environmental costs of
economic production with the benefits of that
production to society.
Environmental Limits to
Economic Development
• Environmental resources are necessary
inputs for economic production,
• Which produces wastes and alters land
use thereby decreasing available
environmental resources.
• Declining environmental resources
eventually cause a decrease in economic
production.
The Environmental System of a Nation
Natural resources are required for economic production, but
production has negative effects on the environment.
(5)
C
Waste,
Fertilizing
Waste,
Toxic
Renewable
Energies
Groundwater,
soil, clean air.
etc.
Fossil fuel,
minerals,
etc.
(3)
Area
C
X X -
Subsidized
Ecosystems
Goods &
Services
X
Area
(2)
Area
GDP
(1)
X X
-
(4)
Natural
Ecosystems
Fossil fuel,
Minerals
X X X X
Economy
C, Land Conversion
Markets
Energy Limits Global Growth
• As long as the production of nonrenewable
resource increases some resource can be
used to mitigate the negative effects of
economic production on the environment, while
allowing economic growth to continue.
• Once production peaks, each year less
resource is available and some formerly
supported activities must be given-up.
Global Environmental System before Nonrenewable Resources Peak.
C
Renewable
Energy
Area
C
Waste,
Fertilizing
Waste,
Toxic
Groundwater,
soil, clean air.
etc.
(1)
Fossil fuel,
minerals,
etc.
(2)
X X -
Subsidized
Ecosystems
X
Recycle
&Waste
Treatment
Area
GWP
$
Area
X X
-
Natural
Ecosystems
X X X X
Economy
(3)C
Better
Design
Is Global Sustainable
Development Possible?
• If it is, there must be an optimum
nonrenewable emergy use for maximum
human well being.
• At least theoretically:
Underdeveloped countries would improve
by using more nonrenewable emergy; and
developed countries would increase well
being by using less, but improving design.
• What happens in practice?
GWP US $ 10
12
An optimum is not apparent looking at global
economic activity as a function of energy use.
25
20
15
10
5
0
0.00
100.00
200.00
300.00
Global Energy Used (Joules x 1018)
400.00
Nor does an optimum appear in the relationship
between national GDP and national emergy use.
GDP 1980 US$ y-1
1,00E+14
1,00E+13
1,00E+12
y = 5E-13x
R² = 0,9243
1,00E+11
1,00E+10
1,00E+09
1,00E+08
1,00E+07
1,00E+19 1,00E+20 1,00E+21 1,00E+22 1,00E+23 1,00E+24 1,00E+25 1,00E+26
Emergy Used sej y-1
Human well being is the product of environment, economy, and society
Odum (1996).
Human Well Being
• We hypothesize that:
human well being is determined by the
interaction of emergy flows of the
environment, economy, and society
within a system.
• The product of these three will have a
humpbacked (optimum) relation as a
function of fossil fuel use when detrimental
drains are included.
Mechanism that will allow global sustainable development
Hypothetical Data
Overdeveloped
Underdeveloped
Questions Related to Transition
• What is sustainable for the world as a whole?
• And for each country given its particular
resource base and position in the cycle of
change?
• Is it possible for all nations together to move
toward higher states of human well being?
• Is global sustainable development a realizable
system state?
Environmental Accounting
• The answers to these questions will depend
on the development of an adequate theory of
human well being and on the development of
accounting methods to determine whether we
are moving toward this goal.
• Environmental accounting using emergy
(Odum 1996) provides methods and measures
to help answer these questions.
Tools of Environmental Accounting
• The Emergy Income Statement
• The Emergy Balance Sheet
• Emergy Measures of Trade Equity
• Emergy Measures of Social Equity
• Emergy Indices, e.g., environmental
loading and sustainability.
Global Transition to
Sustainable Development
To illustrate the application of environmental
accounting methods to the problem of
sustainable development, we will consider
the concept of society’s debt to the
environment debt and how it can be
measured using emergy methods.
Environmental Debt
• Money is paid only to people
for their work.
• The environment contributes
work to economic production
without payment.
• Anything taken without
payment is obtained on credit
and becomes a liability on the
balance sheet.
Measuring the Debt
• Environmental debt is mostly
external to the market system, thus
it is not easily measured by money.
• Value can be measured by what
was required to produce an item as
well as by what someone is willing
to pay for it.
• Environmental work can be
measured by the former method.
Available energy is a
common denominator
• All action is accompanied by the
transformation of available energy
or exergy.
• The exergy used in the past to create
an item is a measure of what
was required to produce it.
• But exergies of different kinds have
different ability to do work when used
in a network.
Emergy
If all the different kinds of exergy previously
used up, directly and indirectly, to make an
item are expressed as solar joules, and then
summed the resulting value is the solar
emergy of the item.
Bread
Joules
Oil
Rain
=
X
Joules
Emergy of Bread
+
X
Joules
=
Solar emjoules
What is Emergy?
• It is the Energy Memory of
everything that has been used
to make a product or service.
• It is a scientific expression of
the folk idea of energy.
• More energy = a barn instead
of a shed and when the barn is
built the energy is used up.
Emergy to money ratio
• Monetary and emergy accounts
are reconciled on the balance
sheet using a combined emergymoney measure, e.g., the
emdollar.
Emergy to money ratio
• The emdollar value of an item is
its emergy divided by the
emergy-to-money ratio for an
economy in a given year.
Environmental Accounting Tools
Emergy accounting makes it possible to keep a single
set of books for the environment and the economy.
Emergy Ledger
Emergy of Assets =
Coal purchased
Coal used
Emergy of Liabilities +
Extraction damage is an
environmental liability
Emergy Equity
Debit
Debit
Debit
Credit
1.05E18
Credit
1.56E16 1.56E16
1.05E18
Credit
Environmental Accounting Tools
Create a balance sheet that includes environmental
liabilities from which the true solvency of our
economic activities can be determined.
Monetary Ledger
Assets =
Liabilities +
Coal purchased increases
Accounts payable ($),
assets
Extraction damage (Em$)
Owner’s Equity
Extraction damage (Em$)
Debit
Debit
20000
Credit
Debit
Credit
20000
15750
15750
Credit
Emergy Balance Sheet
Emergy Balance Sheet
Note
Description
Data
Unit
Emergy/Unit
sej/unit
Emergy
X E20 sej
Emdollars
X E9 Em$
Assets
1
Forest biomass
1.04E19
J
28200
2933
240
2
Coal
1.42E21
J
39200
556640
45626
3
Knowledge of the
People
1816000
Ind.
Various
3837
315
563410
46181
Total Assets
Liabilities
5
Extraction Damage
1.25E19
J
Avg. 1.0E5
17400
1426
6.0E10
$
1.22E12
(1997)
732
60
Var.
Various
545278
44695
Total Equity
546010
44775
Total Liabilities +
Equity
563410
46181
Public and Private Equity
6
Paid in Capital
7
Natural Capital
The emergy
balance
sheet gives
direct
information
on what is
sustainable.
Emergy Balance Sheets for
North and South America
• Emergy debt to the environment:
 Forest systems (original area – present area)
 Species extinctions: vascular plants
• Emergy assets:
 Fossil fuel reserves
• Coal
• Oil
• Natural gas
South America: Country Data
Country
Argentina
Bolivia
Brazil
Chile
Colombia
Ecuador
French Guiana
Guyana
Paraguay
Peru
Suriname
Uruguay
Venezuela
Area
1000 ha
278040
109858
854740
75663
113891
28356
9000
21497
40675
128522
16327
17622
91205
Population
GDP
Year
35660000
8040000
167200000
14650000
37720000
12336572
162547
700000
5150000
26111110
427980
3220000
22803409
5.48E+10
8.00E+09
6.00E+11
5.48E+10
8.78E+10
1.97E+10
3.82E+08
5.30E+08
5.65E+09
6.08E+10
5.50E+08
1.47E+10
9.50E+10
1994
1997
1995
1994
1995
1998
1997 est.
1994
1995
1998
1997 est.
1995
1998
SA Assets in Fossil Fuel Reserves
Country
Argentina
Bolivia
Brazil
Chile
Colombia
Ecuador
French Guiana
Guyana
Paraguay
Peru
Suriname
Uruguay
Venezuela
SA Total
Coal
short tons
4.74E+08
0.00E+00
1.31E+10
1.30E+09
7.30E+09
2.60E+07
0
0
0
1.17E+09
0
0
5.28E+08
2.39E+10
Natural Gas
cu.ft.
2.75E+13
5.49E+13
8.10E+12
3.50E+12
4.50E+12
3.45E+11
0
0
0
8.70E+12
0
0
1.48E+14
2.56E+14
Petroleum
barrels
2.90E+09
4.41E+08
8.30E+09
1.50E+08
1.84E+09
4.60E+09
0
0
0
2.85E+08
0
0
7.78E+10
9.63E+10
Energy
Joules
6.19E+19
6.06E+19
4.78E+20
4.62E+19
2.50E+20
2.93E+19
0
0
0
4.84E+19
0
0
6.48E+20
1.62E+21
Emergy
sej
4.95E+24
4.91E+24
3.34E+25
3.17E+24
1.71E+25
2.63E+24
0
0
0
3.41E+24
0
0
5.67E+25
1.26E+26
SA Fossil Fuel: Use Remaining
Country
Argentina
Bolivia
Brazil
Chile
Colombia
Ecuador
French Guiana
Guyana
Paraguay
Peru
Suriname
Uruguay
Venezuela
SA Total
Fossil Fuel Use Years Remaining
Emergy
y
sej/y
sej
19
2.58E+23
4.95E+24
4905
1.00E+21
4.91E+24
38
8.83E+23
3.34E+25
20
1.58E+23
3.17E+24
102
1.68E+23
1.71E+25
49
5.40E+22
2.63E+24
0
3.48E+21
0.00E+00
0
5.00E+21
0.00E+00
0
1.00E+22
0.00E+00
28
1.23E+23
3.41E+24
0
5.97E+21
0.00E+00
0
1.10E+22
0.00E+00
113
5.03E+23
5.67E+25
2.18E+24
1.26E+26
SA Emergy Debt to
Forest Ecosystems
Country
Argentina
Bolivia
Brazil
Chile
Colombia
Ecuador
French Guinea
Guyana
Paraguay
Peru
Suriname
Uruguay
Venezuela
SA Total
* Brown (2003)
Forest Area Lost Emergy Debt
m2
sej
2,35839E+11 7,39549E+24
1,56729E+11 4,91474E+24
2,75229E+12 8,63068E+25
2,273E+11 7,12771E+24
4,31111E+11 1,35189E+25
53420963855 1,67518E+24
0
0
4505687885
1,4129E+23
2,91493E+11
9,1407E+24
1,0091E+11 3,16435E+24
6495523013 2,03688E+23
0
0
97117033493 3,04541E+24
1,04E+11
3,25E+24
Total Use*
Years to Pay
sej/y
y
4,524E+23
16,3
1,94E+22
253,3
1,792E+24
48,2
2,798E+23
25,5
5,72E+23
23,6
1,617E+23
10,4
?
0,0
2,7E+22
5,2
4,84E+22
188,9
?
?
?
?
3,1E+22
0,0
?
?
SA Biodiversity Debt
Country
Argentina
Bolivia
Brazil
Chile
Colombia
Ecuador
French Guiana
Guyana
Paraguay
Peru
Suriname
Uruguay
Venezuela
SA Total
Extinct Vascular Plants Emergy Debt Annual Emergy Use
sej
sej/y
1 1.50922E+21
4.524E+23
0
0
1.94E+22
15 2.26382E+22
1.792E+24
7 1.05645E+22
2.798E+23
4 6.03686E+21
5.72E+23
3 4.52765E+21
1.617E+23
1 1.50922E+21
?
1 1.50922E+21
2.7E+22
0
0
4.84E+22
7 1.05645E+22
?
0
0
?
0
0
3.1E+22
0
0
?
39 5.88594E+22
North America: Country Data
Country
Canada
Mexico
United States
Area
1000 ha
997061
195820
962909
Population
GDP
Current US$
3,05E+07
5,99E+11
9,86E+07
2,29E+11
2,67E+08
8,50E+12
Year
1999
1998
1999
NA Fossil Fuel Reserves
Country
Canada
Mexico
United States
NA Total
Coal
short tons
7,20E+09
1,30E+09
2,75E+11
2,84E+11
Natural Gas
cu.ft.
5,91E+13
1,50E+13
1,83E+14
2,57E+14
Petroleum
barrels
4,50E+09
1,58E+10
2,27E+10
4,30E+10
Energy
Joules
3,20E+20
1,54E+20
9,13E+21
9,61E+21
Emergy
sej
2,30E+25
1,28E+25
6,19E+26
6,54E+26
NA Fossil Fuel: Use Remaining
Country
Canada
Mexico
United States
NA Total
Emergy
Fossil Fuel Use Years Remaining
sej
sej/y
y
2.30E+25
1.56E+24
15
1.28E+25
5.19E+23
25
6.19E+26
8.16E+24
76
6.54E+26
1.02E+25
NA Debt to Forest Ecosystems
Country
Canada
Mexico
United States
NA Total
Forest Area Lost Emergy Debt
m2
sej
2,36E+11
7,40E+24
3,19E+11
9,99E+24
1,49E+12
4,69E+25
2,05E+12
6,42E+25
Total Use
Years to Pay
sej/y
y
2,34E+24
3,2
6,14E+23
16,3
9,00E+24
5,2
1,19E+25
NA Biodiversity Debt
Country
Canada
Mexico
United States
NA Total
Extinct Vascular
Plants
1
12
163
223
Emergy
Debt
1,51E+21
1,81E+22
2,46E+23
3,37E+23
Annual Emergy
Use
2,34E+24
6,14E+23
9,00E+24
1,21E+25
Comparison NA/SA
Ratio NA to SA
Value
Emergy in Fossil Reserves
5.18
Emergy of Fossil Fuel Use
4.69
Debt to Plant Biodiversity
4.51
Debt to Forest Ecosystems
0.47
Original Forest Area
0.56
Conclusions
• In nature the only thing that appears to be truly
sustainable is a pulsing cycle of change.
• Only by knowing our position in the cycle can we
take appropriate steps to move toward a position
of greater total empower use (according to global
situation).
• Documenting environmental liabilities and assets
using emergy accounting shows what is
sustainable for each phase in the cycle of change.
• A transition toward global sustainable
development may be possible if we apply the
following rules during each phase of the cycle.
Recommendations for
Global Transition
• Protect the larger planetary system by stabilizing
environmental liabilities that affect global
functions.
• Individual countries adopt policies to move
toward a position of greater total empower use.
• Determine the equity of trade with emergy
accounting methods.
• Evaluate the efficacy of the distribution of wealth
among people using emergy.